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Delicious aren’t they, especially the chocolate variety.
Newcastle 4:50
I’ll try and keep the analysis short and sweet, Cheval looks to have a decent enough chance though may find it difficult off top weight here. He hasn’t really beaten much and only has one to his name which came on the A.W. Dornach is an interesting one who could flourish if managing to iron out his tendency to hang towards the final few furlongs but the 6/1 on offer doesn’t really appeal enough to me to back it. Could be wrong but we’ll see what improvement he has in store.
Flyman has been tried over this distance to no avail a few times before, but his mark has dropped to 92 now and hasn’t been far behind the winner a couple of times, so may be worth a chance again over 7f. Second run for O’Meara and there could be more to come, wasn’t disgraced in a Grade 2 at Ripon latest but didn’t have the pace to keep up. Free Code seems to take a while to get going lately and that really puts me off, 10/3 about this one makes no appeal. Lover Man isn’t weighted to reverse the running with George Cinq in a race where he finished 3 lengths behind, but Obsidian looks about ready for this one.
Winning over 1 mile last time, looks like he has the speed to get up again over 7 furlongs. Coming out of draw 1 he can potentially take this one from the front as he’s quick from the stalls. Has performed on Good ground before so that shouldn’t be a problem, only concern being his win was only in a maiden but at 17/2 I’m willing to take a chance on this one eeking out more improvement up’d in class.
Obsidian – £25 e/w @ 17/2 (PP) Placed
Flyman – £10 e/w @ 9/1 (Various) Lost(£-70)
Obsidian for a place and Flyman finishing down the field means I finish £2.50 in the red after the first day. Free Code underestimated it seems, back to the drawing board!
I don’t have time for a full write up, but I will say this.
Classy Anne in the 4:50 Ayr tomorrow seems to big a price to me at 16/1 (BV).
On collateral against the field (who luckily all seemed to have raced each other or the same horses recently), I can’t see why this one has such a big price? Granted, it’s last 2 runs give form of 00, but has been out for 6 months. Coming back from a break last time, it took a couple of runs to get going before a hat-trick was pulled off. A much lower level mind, but I’m willing to take a chance on this one to reproduce and at least get in the money.
Besides this, the main bet is on Long Awaited. Has a consistent record and definite class, and is dropped back in class for this. Gibbons is in fine form of late and at 5/1 (missed the opening 6/1
) I’m happy to take the punt. Handles testing ground and has been performing well of late, minus a blotch at Epsom where never really getting involved.Classy Anne – £15 e/w @ 16/1 (Various) Won
Long Awaited – £30 e/w @ 5/1 (Various) Lost-£92.50
Lost out on £21 because of Pearl Acclaim activating Rule 4, but still a healthy return on Classy Anne, going off at 11/1 (taken at 16/1).
Great to get off to a positive start.
(+196.70)
Goodwood 2:40
God Willing continues to go close without getting his head in front while Mr Win could have more to come after his first appearance of the season at Ascot. He has Buick on board who boasts the best record at Goodwood out of the jockeys, but it remains to be seen whether Mr Win will strip fit enough from that run. Take A Note is back from a long lay off and I won’t be expecting much of a run from that, based on his previous record after a break.
Saucy Minx is one to take note of, a rather laboured run last time out but still managed to hold on for the win. Doesn’t have a great record racing against the opposite sex, but I won’t be ruling it out and will have a small each way on at 8/1. Also knows how to win around here.
I’m slightly apprehensive about this one as my selections are based on horses that can win it from the back, usually behind the trend at Goodwood. A tricky course notorious for trouble in running and finding the gaps is important. There doesn’t appear to be an obvious front runner in this race, so I’m hoping God Willing will take it up from the front as he did last time out, which appeared to be a change in tactics to usual. That should allow Fiftyshadesofgrey to show his talent and gallop away into the final 2 furlongs. Showed a great turn of pace last time out to leave Pastoral Player chasing a shadow, and after a poor start to last season, can continue his improvement from the back end of last year. Form reads 1216-21 and I expect another place in the winner’s enclosure for this one.
Fiftyshadesofgrey – £40 win @ 3/1 (PP, Coral) Won
Saucy Minx – £15 each way @ 8/1 (BV, PP, L, Coral) Lost(+136.70)
Fiftyshadesofgrey hacks up easily, definitely one to keep a close eye on this season!
(+296.70)
Lower stakes as there’s not much to aim at tomorrow, a couple I think are overpriced though, mind you.
14:35 – Dutch Breeze £20 each way @ 16/1 (Various) Placed – Looks well into me, back down to a winning mark and could see off this field from the front. Nothing special going on here so willing to take a punt, place claims certainly and a bit of luck in running could see him first past the post.
15:55 – Chancery £20 each way @ 10/1 (Various) Placed – I can forgive the latest run at York, in which MOF ran into a close second only beaten by the impressive and further improvement Mahsoob. Chancery showed a very impressive turn of foot at ripon over 9f before that, striding past Master of Finance, Hit the Jackpot and Silvery Moon. Would be easy to say the 6lb rise found him out at York, but at 8/1 I’ll give him another go.
(+350.30)
No time for a write up as I’m doing this on the sly at the office.
Not a great deal to aim at again today, so again found a couple that might be overlooked in the betting.
4:50 – Flash City £15 each way @ 12/1 (L, B365) Lost
4:50 – Thatcherite £20 each way @ 8/1 (WH) Placed(+332.30)
Salisbury 4:25
Dark Diamond £20 each way @ 17/2 (Stan James) Placed
Sea Vision £15 each way @ 16/1 (Various) Lost
(+262.30)
Newbury 4:00
Mister Musicmaster £15 win @ 11/2 (various) WonHector’s Chance £25 win @ 5/1 (Various)
Nottingham 15:40
Lexington Abbey £25 win @ 11/2 (various) Won
Guishan £10 win @ 15/2 (WilliamHill)
(+187.30)
Theory behind the 15:40.
Guishan will dictate the pace, probably with Yeoow competing for the lead early on. The rest of the runners seem to be mid-division horses and I don’t see much evidence of stayers, or much with a turn of foot. If Guishan is allowed to dictate the pace, I think he could win this one from the front.
More likely however, is the late run of Lexington Abbey, a more hold up horse who could be considered a little out of sorts lately, but races haven’t been ran his way and in this smaller field I think can capitalise on the pace set by Guishan. Hence the bigger bet being with Lexington Abbey with a ‘saver’ if you will on Guishan.
Yeoow could spoil the fun as was quite impressive lto, but I don’t think he warrants 7/2.
Yeeeee’freakin’haww!
Lexington Abbey and Mister Musicmaster do the business! I also had a £3 win on the double, returning £147 but that won’t be added to the profit and loss totals.
Felt even better that the 3:40 panned out how I said it would.
Lexington Abbey went off at 6/1, as did MusicMaster so profit below.
(+487.30)
Thanks, guys.
Sandown 3:50
Kastini £10 win @ 10/1 (C) Lost
Rembrandt Van Rijn £20 win @ 4/1 (BV) Won
Chain of Events £5 win @ 14/1 (BV) LostThanks.
Knew I should have placed more confidence in RVR, perhaps this should teach me a lesson. Class run, even when short of room.
(+552.30)
I don’t tend to bet on Saturday’s, too much choice around to find the race you want! I just have a ‘fun’ L15.
However I’ll break that trend today, as Tenor in the 15:10 at York is a mahoosive 33/1?!
Last runs have been poor, though have been on the AW. He is 2lb above his last winning mark, which was a Listed handicap in which he stayed on well to fend off a late surge from Hughes aboard Producer.
Granted the form looks to be somewhat uninspiring of late, but 33/1 in this field? In which in my book, he already has 3 or 4 beaten. I’ve gone with an each way bet on this and it will be the only bet of the day.
Tenor £10 each way @ 33/1 (Various) N/R
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