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One big question in the QE II is what happened to last year’s winner Archipenko (de Kock / Shea) last time out in the Dubai Duty Free, when he started 7/2f but ended up 6th behind Gladiatorus – in the process tumbling from a rating of 118 to 107.
Trainer has explained it as a mixture of a tactical mistake and a respiratory/fitness problem, both of which he is alive to this time around:
http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/me … ng&s=Sport
Viva Pataca (Moore / Beadman) resumes rivalry off a tune-up rating of 117 in a G2 over 1600, and likely will have to get back to his 122 / 120 levels of last Oct / Nov to reverse the result – which early fixed betting from Centrebet says he is likely to do.
Fellow 7yo Niconero (David Hayes / Craig Williams) comes over from Aus after a 4th in the Dubai Duty Free (after which his rating dropped from high of 116 to 108). Trainer knows HK well, but horse seems better both left-handed and at less than 2000m (Australian Cup win notwithstanding).
The big talking horse in town, reflected in a “remember Falbrav” piece in the SCMP regarding his trainer:
http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/news … 090425.asp
is Presvis (Cumani / Ryan Moore). Early HK tote betting has him at fav at 1.4, compared to 4.2 fixed available from Centrebet. Previous handicap winner, he got closest to Gladiatorus in the Dubai Duty Free, passing ten G1 winners in the straight after dropping last from a wide draw, which took him to a 118 rating. He may be Pegasus, but I would be more inclined to row in with him if he had Falbrav’s jockey as well as his trainer – for all his talent, for me Ryan Moore has yet to crack riding in HK.
My outside bet would be on local THUMBS UP (Shum / Soumillon), improving 4yo who follwed home Collection in the HK Derby and improved from 97 to 110 in the process.
French raider CHINCHON (Laffon-Parias / Doleuze) is interesting representing the stable that produced Balius to run second in this race last year at 83/1. True, Soumillon is now off him after riding him last two times, but Dolueze is no bad substitute here.
Early fixed price betting from Centrebet:
RACE 8:
2.1 Viva Pataca
4.2 Presvis
5.0 Archipenko
7.5 Niconero
http://centrebet.com/cust?action=GoRaci … tab=racingHK Tote here:
Looking at Archipenko….
If you look at the Dubai World Cup meeting, EVERY single De Kock horse ran like a drain, something was clearly wrong with his horses.
If he is back to his best I would safely ignore that run for form purposes.
If three relatively quick races haven’t taken their toll and given a trouble free passage I would hope Presvis could take this with something to spare.
agree on Archipenko.
Presvis is still showing local favourite here, but if Ryan Moore was at Sandown until 5pm Saturday (midnight HK time), and then had to get to the airport for a 12 hour flight, he must be somewhere over Siberia at the moment and at best won’t get to Sha Tin until a couple of hours before the race. Be interesting to see if that has any effect on the outcome, given that he hardly has much experience of the track….
Tipped down almost all day Saturday, and Sunday has dawned overcast but dry with the promise of a few showers. Going has gone to yielding side of good.
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Presvis is hugely progressive, ran a blinder in what looked a world-class field beforehand lto, and with the extra furlong in his favour, I believe both horse and jockey will be up to the occasion.
Rain would not have helped but still pretty impressive burst to come from last to first. Hopefully, a break and then the Eclipse. In this kind of form he will take a lot of beating wherever he goes.
my apologies to Ryan Moore – he did it to perfection.
as chance would have it, Luca Cumani and two of the owners (as later became apparent when they received the trophy) watched the race from the same place I did, next to the camera position on the 2nd floor of the Members in line with the winning post.
as soon as the field swung into the straight, one owner started yelling "kick, Presi…kick, Presi.." all the way to the line.
Luca and the other owner looked nervous and were quiet throughout the race until the horse crossed the line, at which point they joined the other chap in a roar of celebration and a tri-partite pogo embrace for just a split second, before remembering themselves and resuming a more dignified bearing.
i was left with the impression that a decision had been made to adopt here the same"Scurlogue Champ" running style that had worked for them in the Dubai race.
he does look a horse to follow until beaten.
Cant fault Ryan Moore at all there, what a day for the lad.
Rides in the last at Sandown, flies over to Hong Kong, wins there.
Top stuff. I backed Presvis in a small race last July and have followed him ever since. Sadly the fact pay day is a couple of days away prevented me from backing him here though.
Luca, Please send this monster to the Arc!
scmp report on the race:
All being well Presvis now goes on for the Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji on 17th May.
He’ll be favourite with horses like Jay Peg, Balius, Pompeii Ruler and Bankable being the main dangers.
I find it a little strange journalists fussing about Fantasia running in the 1,000 Guineas yet no mention of this horse – who might be near enough the best around at 10 furlongs – chasing dollars rather than running in the UK.
where would you run him in the UK ?
yes, albeit with weak sterling, he’s picked up GBP 694k at Nad in March and GBP 718k at Sha Tin in April. the singapore airlines cup next month and the hong kong cup in december would pay similarly.
but all of those runs have been / may reasonably be expected to be against world-ranked horses:
http://www.IFHAOnline.org/resources/200 … 01_WTR.asp
murray bell in the scmp on Sunday’s run:
=====================================
On a track that had been downgraded to yielding, Presvis ran the very good time of 2:02.97 and his final 400m was freakish, 21.94 seconds, given the state of the ground.His final speed rating was identical to Archipenko last year and Viva Pataca in 2002, the equivalent of an international 123 rating….
=======================================hopefully there are world-ranked horses that will emerge in the UK this season.
but how do you find them at this stage and how do you plan for him to race them domestically?
As I said before I would give him a break and the obvious targets for me would be the Eclipse and the Champion Stakes. I would miss Royal Ascot for the longer break and fear he may get boxed in given his running style.
Obviously it is the owners choice but I would have thought 5/6 runs in a season would be enough, particularly if he is going to stay in training.
I really should know this but I think the owner may have some connection with George Cambanis who owned Stilvi and her offspring? Anyone confirm?
As I said before I would give him a break and the obvious targets for me would be the Eclipse and the Champion Stakes. I would miss Royal Ascot for the longer break and fear he may get boxed in given his running style.
Obviously it is the owners choice but I would have thought 5/6 runs in a season would be enough, particularly if he is going to stay in training.
I really should know this but I think the owner may have some connection with George Cambanis who owned Stilvi and her offspring? Anyone confirm?
I actually spoke to Luca very very briefly this week and he’s more keen on taking the Purple Moon route with Presvis after Singapore.
He’ll probably have a prep run over here before taking in the big International races before returning to the Duty Free in Dubai.
Plans do change though, He sees this as the perfect horse to win the Arc but is ineligible as a gelding
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