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At the current level they are running at I would have to slightly side with Ahoy Senor as I think given the right conditions (quicker ground than his last two runs) he is the more talented of the two and Aintree would be the obvious place but maybe something like the upcoming Denman Chase would also come into consideration.
His jumping at Aintree on his first start this season was a marked improvement and had he been put into the race a bit earlier than he was, he probably would have won it. Unfortuntaely he pulled too hard in the ground at Haydock (but his jumping was once again good) but Windsor saw a return to more of those jumping errors that has hampered his whole career but I do wonder whether not having D Fox on board (only the 3rd time in 24 lifetime starts that he hasn’t ridden him) may have also played some part?
Hitman is far and away the more consistent of the two as he has been placed in 6 of his last 10 races (whereas Ahoy Senor has had just as many letters in his last 10 runs as placed efforts – 4 of each). Unfortunately Hitman seems to not find much off the bridle these days and the comment of ‘no extra after the last’ or ‘weakened’ crops up quite often in the analysis of his runs. I am not sure he is up to winning a G2 and Ascot showed he is vunerable in trying to give lumps of weight away in a handicap.
Both would be more than capable of winning one of those veteran’s chases, age wise Ahoy Senor is already qualified at 10 and Hitman (9) will be next season. The pace of those races wouldn’t put as much pressure on Ahoy Senor’s jumping and a lot of the opponents in those races are on the backside of their career and likely would be vunerable to any new blood coming into the division from a higher grade.
Highly doubt connections of either horse are at that stage yet in considering those type of races as a viable option at the moment though.
As things stand, neither of them would qualify for the Veterans race series – the maximum rating band for those races is 0-150.
Thought the maximum rating was higher than that for some reason.
In all likelyhood then Ahoy Senor will likely need to fall of a bit of a cliff form wise in order for his rating to qualify (currently 168) but Hitman is officially on 156 (he has been as low as 152) so he doesn’t actually have that far to drop to actually qualify.
I think the issue is Russell has kept Ahoy playing at the top stage where realistically he isn’t up to it , I don’t see him as ungenuine , I’ve mentioned it before but I’d target him at Aintree , poss even the grand national , if not then I’d have a tilt at the stayers hurdle , def a drop in grade to win a race and get confidence back first , Hitman is ungenuine , he has been placed as well as Nicholls can but his strike rate is terrible for such a talented horse , I really don’t know what you,d do with him , poss needs a change is scene …
With regard to placing Ahoy Senor I think you are spot on there HDLG.
The more I know the less I understand.
Hitman in the National was a totally daft idea to begin with – especially given that all the changes made to the race means that the stamina of 2½m horses runs out much sooner than it did when the fences were a true test and the pace was slower.
I picked wrong in going with Ahoy Senor as it would seem that even his beloved Aintree couldn’t galvanise him into winning – being a 10 rising 11 year old next season I am not sure there will be many more chances for him, maybe if they get him superfit for a race like the Old Roan Chase at Aintree or the Charlie Hall at Wetherby but those jumping frailties will always hinder him.
As for Hitman, the National aside (his first non complete since December 2022) he is by far the more consistent (perhaps to his detriment for handicaps purposes) in that you can pretty much count on him to run a decent race (placed in 5 of his last 7 runs) – assume they will be looking at the G2 Oaksey Chase again at Sandown on the final day of the season (3rd last year). His chance of winning there (potentially a first win since November 2022) will obviously very much depend on what level of horse Mullins and/or Skelton throw at the race.
Next season:
Hitman for a Haldon Gold Cup? This is a good ground horse, maybe something like the Summer Plate would be an opportunity?
Ahoy Senor for a Premier Chase or the Edinburgh Gin, both at Kelso?
Suspect those races (barring the Market Rasen one) will have six runners or fewer.
Surely they’ll have a go at one of th nationals with Senor , slower pace allowing him to jump easier …
I have to admit to having backed Hitman once this season and backing Ahoy Senor to be placed in the 1st 4 in the Gold Cup this year on Betfair.
If both were dropped in class and ran on the same day with conditions to suit would anyone be brave enough or optimistic enough to do a win double ?If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
What Hitman needs is for a rival horse to fall / unseat and then run riderless in front. So Hitman can just follow the loose horse home and win. Other than that he’ll be relying on a race with a finish of other weak finishers.
Ahoy Senor needs Aintree and possibly now a while beforehand where he’s not fallen. The way he now holds his head to one side possibly means he’s thinking about things more / a temperamental flaw. However, his Aintree Bowl run was more encouraging than non-Aintree races this term. Travelling better than he has of late. That said, I’d also go back to front running, it just enables him to see the fences easier / jump better. Although is still liable to hit one hard.
Probably the best chance of another Ahoy Senor victory is first time out next season in the Old Roan at Aintree. – When he’s less likely to be thinking of a recent bad experience / fall. Then, if I were connections I’d see if it’s possible to keep to the Mildmay course all season long. Are there any other mid-season Mildmay course Graded or Handicaps at between 2m6f and 3m2f open to him between the Old Roan and Bowl?
Value Is EverythingI don’t believe either horse will ever win another race.
Agree with Ginger that next season’s Old Roan looks like Ahoy Senor’s best chance. Although at the risk of sounding mean spirited, given the way the horse was ridden in this season’s Old Roan, connections did not really deserve much luck this campaign.
Hitman is still only 9 and is very consistent, still capable of running well in good races and picking up some decent prize money.
I’ve never liked Ahoy Senor, can never depend on his jumping. If he were mine I would prepare him for next years Grand National, likes the course and nothing to lose. Why run in the Old Roan for only 45 grand when you can run in the National for more than 10 times that?I’m amazed Senorq hasn’t had a go over hurdles , even if it was just a confidence booster
“Why run in the Old Roan for only 45 grand when you can run in the National for more than 10 times that?”
The Old Roan is in October and the GN is in April. Surely you can run in both?
(Ahoy would be 150/1 in the GN for me. No chance at all.)
Ahoy Senor is a 10yo now. Rated 162, that puts him 7 lbs lower than when third beaten 2 lengths in the Old Roan this season.
If AS runs three times before January, failing to win each time and nudging the handicap down to 150, then it shouldn’t be beyond their race-planning wit to find a small field Veterans contest to win later in the season.
Similarly the Middle Distance Veterans’ Chase Series for Hitman. The first of those for the current season was at Wincanton in October, and there is one at Cheltenham in mid-December. OK, they are 0-150 events and Hitman is currently 156, but that mark will surely go down to around 150 after seasonal debut. Maybe one later next season when he has got down to that mark.
Ahoy Senor loves the Mildmay course for sure but that doesn’t mean he would transfer that love to the National fences, they may not be as fearsome to jump as in the past but I still wouldn’t want to chance riding him round there given his jumping issues.
Plus with his tendancy to belt even a park fence, I dread to think what the fallout would be if they ran him and he fell and god forbid injured or was killed as you could just imagine the comments of risking a horse with known jumper issues over normal fences in a National. Plus he wouldn’t stay the trip either.
Although it is late in his career, I do like the idea of him going back to hurdles now though as the 3m hurdle division has for awhile not really had a standout star and it is a little surprising that they haven’t explored that option with him a season or so ago………..probably blinkered to anything else but the thought that if they could just get his jumping sorted out he would be a Gold Cup horse.
Hitman is a little bit of a victim of his own consistency as he is just too high in handicaps to be giving lumps of weight away to lower rated horses and not classy enough to win G1 races, placement is going to be the issue but you could see him taking advantage in winning say a G2 if it was a weak renewal or the race fell apart a bit in running.
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