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Great question. Both loveable rogues. Ahoy Senor is a nutjob whereas Hitman is very soft/bit of a bridal ponce. Wouldnt be the biggest shock if neither won a race again to be honest but they’ve given connections many great days and oowe them nothing.
Back in the Autumn I backed Ahoy Senor ante-post for the Gold Cup.
Could understand the Betfair. After running well from the back of the field at a reduced distance and Good-Soft ground (FASTER PACE) in the Old Roan over 2 1/2 miles… Tried to do the same at the back of the Betfair field over 3m1f on heavy (MUCH SLOWER PACE) and seemed too keen for those conditions.
However, today he was initially fine when having a clear view of his fences. Until a couple of mistakes lost ground and appeared to down tools. So the Betfair could have been due to the same reason. That said, it’s also possible holding him up once worked because it was something different. Didn’t work a second time at Haydock.
But today, was it more to do with losing confidence with those mistakes? Has spoilt his chance by jumping poorly and even falling in the past. Would not surprise me if he’s had a bad fall at home and (after a mistake at the races) is remembering it.
Or is Ahoy Senor just a one track pony (Aintree)?
If I were connections I’d miss Cheltenham and go straight to the Bowl. Fresh, just like he was in the Old Roan (should’ve won there).If Hitman was a wild horse he’d be a follower. Does not want to be a leader. It’s clear now they’re trying exaggerated waiting tactics. But I can only see that working if there’s a loose horse in front that he can chase. Unless….. Maybe Nicholls can take a lesson from Cecil……. Julie Cecil.
Noble Mission went the same way for a long time… Until – as a 5 year old – in his last year’s racing Mrs Cecil totally retrained the horse into a front runner. So instead of not wanting to go past the leader; Noble Mission became well known for his fighting qualities. Doing all he could to remain in front. 2014 winning spree started in the Gordon Richards, then Huxley, Tattersalls Gold Cup and Grand Prix De Saint Cloud before culminating in the Champion Stakes. ALL from the front.
Value Is EverythingOf the two, I’d be inclined to choose Hitman. I feel there’s still one more win within him whereas Ahoy Senor comes across more of a spent force.
I think both could win again.
Hitman some sort of small field G2 affair-maybe the likes of the Denman if there’s not much else in it.
Ahoy Senor a veteran’s chase but they’d probably have to get his mark down a bit first- habitually running well in the Bowl against over the top G1 horses tired after being in the mix at Cheltenham is not good for a handicap mark. IF his soundness holds up- he’s had feet problems and also weird not-straight jumping is harder on a horse’s body than neat economical jumping.I think Hitman will be the first of the two to win. He’s a bit more trip and track versatile and has a canny trainer who can place him to win and won’t try glory hunting.
Great topic but despite the in depth analysis of one poster both, particularly Ahoy Senor, are shite. Hitman will win another race, Nicholls is too astute, but AS may as well retire.
Ginge, I believe that Noble Mission was trained by Lady Jane Cecil, not Julie.
Regarding the subject of this thread, I will be surprised if either horse wins a decent race again, although I could see Ahoy Senor picking up a few northern hunter chases if connections took that route.
Like Ginger I backed Ahoy Senor for the Gold Cup a good while back at 100/1,
his jumping is ropey but he was running well when in the 23 Gold Cup he came
down at the 17th whilst leading. Even last year he was still in contention
with two to go but got tired, finished 6th.Last year in April he was 2nd behind Gerri Colombe at Aintree (should have
started his run sooner) and after a beak came back in October and was a
good third at Aintree, again finishing best of all.I was still hopeful before his last 2 when he looks to have lost something.
Maybe age is catching up with him or his poor jumping is taking too much out
of him but I think chances for the Gold Cup are all but gone. Strange thing is
I’ve got £20 E/W on him and I thought I’ll have a laugh and see what Paddy are
offering cash out after that. I’m pretty astonished they are offering all £40
as cash out. I’m very tempted to take the £40 as I don’t think he’ll even
get to the Gold Cup this year after that and he’s 80/1. So is it a Yea or nay
Great to see that many replies. I basically agree with the fact that both of them would struggle to win anything decent soon or at all.
Ahoy Senor seems to be travelling okay until he hits one or two fences and starts to backpedal. Hitman is the more reliable jumper, but lacks the guts or will to get his head in front. I think Nicholls is a shrewd operator who could find the right winning opportunity for him.
“Ginge, I believe that Noble Mission was trained by Lady Jane Cecil, not Julie”.
Oops, Sorry Lady Jane.
Value Is EverythingMy original Ahoy Senor bet was only @ 70 but went in again at bigger so the average price I took was 89.5. Since the Betfair Chase I have laid it back bit by bit… And now my average LAY price is 90.32. So no harm done.
Value Is EverythingWho’s the crank on here who refuses to accept that Ahoy Senor is simply not the horse he was 2 years ago!
I think it might be you Gingertipster!
I was having a debate with someone a few months ago who was trying to tell me Ahoy Senor was a better horse now than Bravemansgame and has better form overall!!
I quickly reminded myself of the old adage “never argue with a fool they will simply bring you down to their level”
Depends what you mean by “not the horse he was 2 years ago”, TC.
The evidence now is that his temperament is not what it was. ie If not making any mistakes he could (not saying he will but “could”) still run to his best given conditions he enjoys – like in the Old Roan. But truth is he rarely goes a full race without making a mistake. Therefore spits his dummy out. He’s always been inconsistent, just now he’s extremely inconsistent. Although statistically his chance of running to form would be a lot better in the Bowl / at Aintree.
Ahoy Senor has been pulled up in successive starts before. Then came straight back to form / would’ve gone close to winning the Cotswold Chase had his tack not broken.
Value Is EverythingWhat do I mean by not the horse he was? One that wins races!
He’s actually brushed up his consistency in his last few races. Consistently awful!
Regarding Ahoy Senor, his team may not want to give up on him quite yet but it may not be long. Last two runs have been pretty dreadful. He’d look like a good project for Sandy Thompson who seems to have a knack for rejuvenating talented nutjobs.
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