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The horse has absolutely no chance whatsoever of getting 12f and I’d be surprised if he got 10f. They must be mad.
Despite the fact that his damn got 12f?
JohnJ
His damn what?!
Seriously, Sequoyah was probably best at around a mile, and never placed beyond 7f. Furthermore, Kingmambo’s very best offspring have generally been milers, and Henry’s full sister, Queen Cleopatra, was best at a mile, although she wasn’t disgraced when tried over 10f.
Henry’s 2-y-o career, highlighted by his Coventry Stakes win, is indicative of a horse whose main asset is speed rather than stamina. His style of running in the Guineas was not that of a horse who might fancy a longer trip.
His female line is a high class one, but has predominantly produced horses suited by distances of around mile or less, the best of them being the champion Silent Screen, who I think never won beyond a mile.
I think what henry proved at newmarket on saturday is that there is very little we know about henrythenavigator.
However I dont think he won like a sprinter/miler, new approach is an exceptional horse and when you look at the race again the only one going with henry/making ground on him is new approach. That pair are still pulling clear o the field. Also when you look at henry and new approach in the canter down afterwards, there is very little between them in terms of size and scope, neither look like sprinter milers IMO.
Whether or not Henry would win a derby or not isa wholly different matter, but in the last two years coolmores Derby No has ridden in the guineas before it and although 1 died part way round he was well fancied and the other was a good second (relevant to the rest of the field) to the brilliant authorized. There looks to be no authorized this year in the derby, and I think they will seriously be thinking about henry for it.
I wouldnt back Henry for it but then I wouldnt have backed Sir Percy either, and he was less impressive at newmarket on better ground. And it is entirely possible that Horatio Nelson in that same derby may have a big influence on whether they send a very good guineas winner there this year.
Could not agree with you more Venusian,
Sequoyah may have stayed 1 1/2 miles but she was by Saddlers Wells.
Henry is by Kingmambo (a miler) who was out of Miesque.
There are very few, if any 12 furlong performers in this family. Even Dolphin Street is in there (sprinter). Another miler, Saffron Walden failed to stay in the Derby.
If Henry were a brother to Sequoyah (Listen is a sister) then 12f would be probable but he ain’t. Having shown "so much speed" as Aiden would say, he shows all the signs of taking after his sire. I’d say less than 10% chance of staying the trip.Ginge
Value Is EverythingJust watching it again and Henry will easily get 1m2f but New Approach will be a top 1m horse easily or could be better at sprints
Just watching it again and Henry will easily get 1m2f but New Approach will be a top 1m horse easily or could be better at sprints
Haven’t you got these horses the wrong way round?
Just watching it again and Henry will easily get 1m2f but New Approach will be a top 1m horse easily or could be better at sprints
Eh?
Which one seemed to be staying on best?
All that the Darley folks would have needed to do with New Approach was to provide a pacemaker to run the sprint out of Henry early. New Approach stays the distance and wins by 6 going away.
Hypothetically speaking, of course.
I’m not sure on that Myles, Henry was held way off the pace that was ineffect on the day and new approach didnt excatly trailblaze it in front, in terms of the effort made by both horses on the day, I would say henry used more effort coming from off that pace to get to New Approach than new approach used to hold his position and come off that pace.
If indeed there were a faster pace you would generally go in New Approach’s favour but I wouldnt be 100% convinced he would definitely win.
All that the Darley folks would have needed to do with New Approach was to provide a pacemaker to run the sprint out of Henry early. New Approach stays the distance and wins by 6 going away.
Hypothetically speaking, of course.
Myles,
New Approach won most of his races from the front. Some horses are better making their own running. Don’t know if you are old enough to remember Slip Anchor? Made all in the Derby, then they bought a pace maker for him Rakaposhi King for his four year old campaign. Slip Anchor resented being led, even on the gallops. Think it may be a similar situation with New Approach.Ginge
Value Is EverythingYou see, a lot of people go on about rudeness on this forum and personally I think highlighting Neils quote and trying to make out the bloke’s judgement isn’t worth anything is a bit rude, don’t you?
Come on Venusian/Alderook, your big enough not to come across like that.
They are only disagreeing with him Marb, no swearing or name calling, what is wrong with that?
Neil’s quote is very different (being diplomatic here) to say the least, to my mind New Approach was coming back at Henry near the line. Wasn’t he?
To hell with the diplomacy.
Sprinter? Never.
ginge
Value Is EverythingCould not agree with you more Venusian,
Sequoyah may have stayed 1 1/2 miles but she was by Saddlers Wells.
Henry is by Kingmambo (a miler) who was out of Miesque.
There are very few, if any 12 furlong performers in this family. Even Dolphin Street is in there (sprinter). Another miler, Saffron Walden failed to stay in the Derby.
If Henry were a brother to Sequoyah (Listen is a sister) then 12f would be probable but he ain’t. Having shown "so much speed" as Aiden would say, he shows all the signs of taking after his sire. I’d say less than 10% chance of staying the trip.Ginge
So on that basis, Sequoyah cannot pass her genes from her sire to her progeny then, is that what you are saying? Can you explain then how Rule of Law won the Ledger, being of course by Kingmambo, who is regarded breeding wise as 9.8f horse. Rule of Laws damn was Crystal Crossing who ran over a maximum trip of 7f.
JohnJ
There’s an awful lot of breeding rubbish floating around on this thread.
What on earth has Rule of Law to do with anything? He’s by Kingmambo, but apart from that his breeding is almost entirely different (he’s related to Derby winner Teenoso). BTW, Crystal Crossing did not run over a max of 7f – she ran over 9f in the States, and finished second over 8 1/2 f. Her performances over 6 and 7f were entirely at 2 years.
Arguing that Sequoyah stayed but Henry will not because they have different sires is also pretty wrong-headed – it depends on the prepotency of each of the stallion’s genes when mixed with the influence from the bottom line.
The Kingmambo/Sadler’s Wells cross is interesting – the outcome is split between the miler/10f horses (Divine Proportions, Virginia Waters, Queen Cleopatra, Ershaad, Moon Dazzle, Multazem) and the 12f+ brigade (El Condor Pasa, Akarem, Shahin, Indigo Myth, and potentials Campanologist and Thewayyouare (both also entered in the Derby)).
The difference? Tends to be the damside which has the deciding vote. Campanologist is from the dam family of Singspiel – I wouldn’t have doubts about him over 10f+. Henry’s family (as previously pointed out on this thread) is predominately sprinters/milers with a few 10f horses. Strong probability that he falls into the first category of K/SWs, good enough over 10f but not further. Eclipse and Champion?
Sal,
Thank you for your intervention, I have to say I was looking forward to you posting!
JohnJ
Thanks for the kind words guys.
Always good when people can agree and disagree about things in racing, mind you Rishi Persad at GG said a horse would have no chance in the Molecombe and it won at 50s.
You see, a lot of people go on about rudeness on this forum and personally I think highlighting Neils quote and trying to make out the bloke’s judgement isn’t worth anything is a bit rude, don’t you?
Come on Venusian/Alderook, your big enough not to come across like that.
Didn’t intend it to come across like that. Genuinely thought he was mistaken as New Approach appeared to be regaining ground at the line and HTN showed a burst of speed.
Hopefully Neil didn’t take it as rudeness, as that was not the intention.
I’m starting to see why Henry is being thought of as a Derby horse. Doesn’t look like Ballydoyle has much else. Surely Frozen Fire running in the Dante cant be their first choice?
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