- This topic has 210 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I thoroughly agree.
What do you think about Air Force One being best going right handed.
I think his jumping will be put under great pressure going lefthanded.
What makes you think his form is good enough ??Have had a preliminary look and 3 things stand out for me.
-Oudipe on all known form is overpriced and should not be 3rd favourite, big trainer factor in the price.
-Slim Pickings is value at 14/1, very impressive against graded class horses the last day on what was clearly a prep run over an inadequate trip and is laid out for this.
-12/1 (too late now) about Island Flyer could be massive given his improvement curve over the last 3 races, will have to step up again though.I’m afraid to say I backed Island Flyer at 34 on 30th October, and laid it all away at 26 on 13th November, as I was convinced he would never make the race.
And now it looks like there won’t be sufficient rain to make Verasi a factor.
Double fook.
I think Albertas Run is a super price at 12-1. I would ignore his first run of the season at Carlisle.
JohnJ
FoF – what does Jonjo think of Albertas Run – he’s short enough in the betting if he doesn’t fancy him.
Horse is spot on for the race but he was also very fit at Carlisle and look what happened there. The last fortninght you could get 14/1 even 16/1 not about the horse but about the ground. The forecast for Thursday Friday and Saturday is for rain so I would keep my money in my pocket until the last minute. He has one a very bad race on heavy but this is far from being that. It wouldn’t take much for Jonjo to pull him out if the ground ends up very soft or heavy.
On form he should be a shorter price than Air Force One who he wouldn’t see in his way IMO and if it turns up good at Newbury he’ll be backed of the boards…….
I firmly believe High Chimes will be placed. Yes, I know he’s up 14lbs since his Festival win and that’s why it is difficult to see him actually winning. However, this beautifully bred stayer will have been laid out for this, as I am aware many have been, but I see this as stepping stone towards Aintree and the fact that he has the influences of The Parson and Gala Performance (West Tip, Monksfield and Greasepaint’s sire) in his pedigree then he will not be going backwards at the end of the race, indeed quite the opposite.
FIST, are you turning into a believer of the young pretender, Albertas run?
You might be tempted with a bit of 20"s for the Gold cup before its too late!Im tempted by Oediepe. bit in and out but surely able to improve and has shown real flashes of talent. Stable form perfect too
The more I look this race, the more I feel that Alberta’s Run is a stand out bet. I would ignore his last two runs, at Aintree he probably was over the top, and his last performance at Carlisle was over an inadequate trip. How Air Force One is a shorter price is beyond me, he annihilated AFO at Cheltenham last year, I actually don’t think AFO stays 3m, despite winning over the trip, I believe he has just come up against inferior opposition.
The only horse I would fear would be Big Bucks who beat Albertas Run over 3m at Aintree. If the ground stays good to soft, Albertas is a cracking eachway bet, providing he runs!
JohnJ.
- Total Posts 17716
I think so too.
His run behind Tidal Bay is so reminiscent of Exotic Dancer’s behind Turpin Green – and in the same race – that it almost begs ignoring completely.
The only worry at the moment is the forecast rain, maybe that’s why he’s such a price?Reet,
Watching the Sun Alliance again, I think the ground was quite juicey, I don’t think he will have a problem with the ground, unless of course its a bog. My view from watching the Sun Alliance was that further he went the better he looked.
JohnJ.
I think so too.
His run behind Tidal Bay is so reminiscent of Exotic Dancer’s behind Turpin Green – and in the same race – that it almost begs ignoring completely.
The only worry at the moment is the forecast rain, maybe that’s why he’s such a price?You are spot on Reet he simply won’t go on anything resembling heavy or very soft ground…It’seven worse if you get a heavy downpour and the ground is drying out which is like running through a gluepet.Those that backed him better hope if it rains it keeps raining during the race.
If the weather stays the same I reckon he could start 8/1 or even 6/1 joint fav. He was a huge price leading up to Cheltenham and I ended up getting only 4/1 or 5/1 about him for fear it would be too soft on the day.
My fancy Charachter Building was backed by connections weeks ago and I can’t see much money coming for him. Island Flyer is nowhere near good enough IMO and the gamble on him will come to a dead stop on the day and he’ll most likely drift. Surely NH horse is a fals price and I can’t see anything else those looking for value can go for.
Footnote. Mr Wilson as far as him winning this seasons Gold Cup…who knows but one things for sure, if he does you won’t ever let us forget it
GL with that one.If he hadn’t run this season I’d be all over him like a rash but does it not worry you just how bad that run was? he capitulated very early and I don’t buy the ground as an excuse as he’s a soft and heavy ground winner. OK he may have been short of fitness but I’d have liked to see him competitive till the last before backing him for a severe examination like the Hennessy- I’m struggling to remember a horse winning it off a poor prep like his?
Island Flyer is nowhere near good enough IMO
Why?
trainer is certain that he would have come on from Wincanton. he does jump nicely and anyway, with bottom weight, doesnt have to be "as good" as many others
He should be improving too
Oedeipe is much longer on Betfair than in the markets. Weather forecast perhaps?
If you had taken Denman out of last years race I would have given him a chance in that of his low weight but I just feel there are too many good horses in the race this year and a few of them will be just too good.
Plus Charachter Building is just above him and finished 3rd last year but now he’s a much more mature and stronger horse, something John Quinn said he would be. I doubt if he will beat him let alone some of the top ones.
He drew a lot of attention scraping in atthe bottom and he has a bit of decent form, so people jumped on…..seen it all before Clive and it very seldom results in a winner.
If he hadn’t run this season I’d be all over him like a rash but does it not worry you just how bad that run was? he capitulated very early and I don’t buy the ground as an excuse as he’s a soft and heavy ground winner. OK he may have been short of fitness but I’d have liked to see him competitive till the last before backing him for a severe examination like the Hennessy- I’m struggling to remember a horse winning it off a poor prep like his?
He was out the back and not really travelling when he made a hash of the 11th or 12th fence and AP made no effort to put him back in the race. Would have been no sense in it as he would have got no where near Tidal Bay on that ground.
If you look back his form yes he won on Heavy…….once in a bumperwhen he scraped home against a monkey by a short head and once at Sandown when the ground was Heavy but only on parts of the course. AP sought out the better ground which for themain part was no worse than good to soft and won on him.
Trust me on heavy ground you could beat him round a track he loaths it.
If it puts your mind at rest he doesn’t take a lot of getting fit…I better shut up or I will end upbacking the thing myself
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.