- This topic has 210 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
If the rains come, and he gets in the race (borderline, but should be ok), I reckon Verasi to have a great chance, and have backed him at 150. He will need it bottomless though.
Verasi will go straight to the Hennessy.He was entereed for the Tidal Bay race at Carlisle but it would have been a long haul.
The trainer was annoyed about running him in The Sun Alliance but the quality he feels the horse has got the better of him.The track and ground were against him.Grasshopper you are right,he wants it nearly unraceable but weve seen that before at Newbury in winter and he will love 3m2f.You have a great price at 150 in a race that looks wide open.There is still a few quid to back at three-figure prices, if you want to follow me in, bahram. Some lucky sod got two-nicker matched at 980 – sad to report that it wasn’t me.
Welcome to the Forum.
If Don’t Push It runs in the first 6 in the Hennessy I’ll bare my ass in the Lounge (virtually). Will most likely run in the Paddy Power anyway.
I’m sure no one is looking forward to that sight. I hope for your neighbour’s sake he is traight enough to do himseld justice and doesn’t finish running on about 5th or 6th in the Paddy Power,then go for the Hennessy.
If he’s a non stayer he won’t be winning on soft ground at Chelters that’s for sure.
Dunno about the race itself, but i’m currently going through a bottle of the sponsors finest X.O.
Not a spirits drinker myself, but it goes down better than Pammy on ‘E’.
Finger on the pulse or Roll Along…..
You drink the full bottle you better keep your finger on your pulse or you might find yourself rolling along
- Total Posts 170
Will Imperial Commander get a run in this race?
If so, after yesterday – Big Bucks will do well to give him a stone. 7/1 looks good…
The make up of this race has changed significantly in the past few years.
Whereas before it was very difficult to win on seasonal debut(one winner on sd from at least 95 to 2004 inclusive) the last three winners have all won on seasonal debut.
Carrying 11st plus was always a difficult task ( 1 win from 95 to 02 inclusive) but 4 of the last five have carried such a weight.
Training methods are probably responsible for the former.
11 of the last thirteen winners won on their previous start( the other two finished second).
11 /13 won over 3miles on their previous start.
3/13 winners were rated 150+ but that includes 2 of the last three renewals.
9/13 have been aged six or seven.including the last five winners.All these stats are okay but IMO you can’t be too pedantic with them, but they are a guide.
My shortlist presently is Island Flyer, Dear Villez, Big Bucks, Nenuphar Collonges and Air Force One.
Two of them I have grave doubts about but I’ve been wrong before and they still have a solid chance. Also you’ll note I haven’t stuck strictly to the stats I have quoted.
What do you think and who do you like personally?
Its not original but I really like the prospects of Air Force One. Grade 1 winner as a novice and a top notch novie hurdler before that. I appreciate he has a lot to find with Albertas Run on Cheltenham form but excuses were made and not sure Charlie Mann is a Festival trainer. His run at Ascot was more than reasonalbe and he has come on for a defeat 1st time out the last 2 seasons to win next time and it was obvious Roll Along was cherry ripe for that race judging by the money for him especially considering the yard were and still are out of form. The other one I like is Imperial commander if he turns up, but that will depend on his new mark for the Boylesports i guess. The other one I like at bigger prices would be Oedipe but even he is a bit skinny.
Probably would be wiser to wait till after decs tomorrow but I really like the chances of Slim Pickings in the big race next Saturday. I feel strongly that this is a beast who’s true ability has been masked by two seasons of effort to get the best possible handicap mark for the season’s most valueable prize, the Grand National.
Read on the RP site that connections have finally accepted that he doesn’t quite stay well enough to win the big one. Now is the time therefore for this admirable 9-y-o to cash in. He looks attracively weighted (will probably carry 11-1) and has always travelled with real power through 3 and a half miles in the National. At 16/1 he will be my biggest bet this season to date, assuming he is declared on Monday. Knowhere and Albertas Run appeal as alternatives.I’ve just backed Island Flyer at 12/1. He’s going to sneak in with a nice weight when Fist’s fancy doesn’t run, loves Newbury, unexposed second season chaser, Badger Beer a recognised trial etc. I expect him to start a lot shorter.
I’m wondering if Ferdy Murphy intends to run New Alco who was 2nd fav for this event last year.Unlucky at Chelters must be worth a few quid EW at 20/1.if he runs.
Incidentally Grass Gareth and Carv just as matter of interest Don’t Push It is entered to run on Friday…..what’s the distance? 3 miles……..guess Jonjo is wasting his time as you guys must be right …he can’t possibly be wanting a trip
and hey! please don’t all shout at me at the same time I hate it when that happens 
I never offered an opinion on Don’t Push It’s best trip. I merely said that I thought you were an idiot. I haven’t changed that opinion.
Incidentally Grass Gareth and Carv just as matter of interest Don’t Push It is entered to run on Friday…..what’s the distance? 3 miles……..guess Jonjo is wasting his time as you guys must be right …he can’t possibly be wanting a trip
and hey! please don’t all shout at me at the same time I hate it when that happens Of course, that entry will be over hurdles, so I fail to see it’s relevance. I guess, therefore, that we were communally all correct in that Jonjo has seen the light, and realises that Don’t Push It’s Hennessy entry was a complete waste of time.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.