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Because he won’t run.
That is of course a distinct possibility but even if he did 5/1 ??? that’s way to skinny for my liking as Denman was that price last year in a far worse looking race.
Charachter B is due to run on Saturday or if any weather risks he will likely he will run over hurdles on Friday (You got me there mate if he does) if he runs really well he will be cut to around 7/1 and there is no way even if Jonjo does send ED will he knock BB of the favs mantle………Conceding weight all round they would be happy to lay him around 8/1 I would have thought.
Fist, why Jonjo would run Exotic Dancer under top-weight at Newbury for a much smaller pot, when he only has a neck to find with Kauto Star on last year’s run?
Contrary to what you believe, he has no chance of winning a handicap as competitive as the Hennessy, off a mark 11lbs higher than Denman did last year – absolutely no chance.
Fist, why Jonjo would run Exotic Dancer under top-weight at Newbury for a much smaller pot, when he only has a neck to find with Kauto Star on last year’s run?
Contrary to what you believe, he has no chance of winning a handicap as competitive as the Hennessy, off a mark 11lbs higher than Denman did last year – asbolutely no chance.
I am with you.
I honestly cannot see Exotic Dancer running in the Hennessy, let alone winning it.
Even Mr King is thinking of maybe avoiding it with Halcon Genelardais (off a mark of 166), simply because of Denman’s exclusion from the race, so i cant see someone like Jonjo sending Exotic Dancer there, as he would have to shoulder top weight, and yet still be 6 lbs above Halcon in the handicap.
if you have 100 and he’s trading at 34 lay it off!
The reason that he can’t lay off at 34 is because he’s not trading at 34. He’s available to back at 34 but can’t be laid at any price, which is unsurprising.
I would be amazed if Exotic Dancer doesn"t run in the Betfred and i would be even more amazed if Albertas run doesn"t just run in the Hennessy but
wins it like the class horse he is! already form lines through Air force one and Roll along make him a big player! Its not a difficult race to get a handle on unlike the Sun Alliance chase! 16/1 now for the Hennessy looks
the best e/w bet of the current jumps season!!Fist, why Jonjo would run Exotic Dancer under top-weight at Newbury for a much smaller pot, when he only has a neck to find with Kauto Star on last year’s run?
Contrary to what you believe, he has no chance of winning a handicap as competitive as the Hennessy, off a mark 11lbs higher than Denman did last year – absolutely no chance.
I think you are being a very unfair to Kauto Star as he wasn’t as far forward then as he seems to be now.
I don’t think you actually belive what you wrote and I would be happy to give you a length of start and you can have what you like on ED..of course you wouldn’t have a brass penny on as you know Kauto is in a different claas to ED when on song.
You are also making the classic error is comparing Denman’s victory to this years race. It has no bearing on it whatsoever.
How would you compare Exotic Dancer to Trabolgan who won the race with 11stone 12lbs 3 years ago?
Exotic Dancer was beaten 1 length giving lumps of eight away in the Old Roan to say he would have no chance in the Hennessy if he were to run is ridiculous.
As most posters say he will probably run in the Betfair as his owner will insist on it but Jonjo did say to one reporter he was looking forward to renewing rivalry with Knowhere and 5 minutes later said his main target was the Betfair.
Me? I would run him in the Hennessy as I couldn’t see him beat Kauto Star with a roket tied to his backside.
How would you compare Exotic Dancer to Trabolgan who won the race with 11stone 12lbs 3 years ago?
Just so you know Fist, at the weights ED would have to have given Trabolgan 21 lb (and Denman last year 11 lb). It’s nothing short of a huge ask, more ‘huge’ than taking on a rival rated 7 lbs higher than him at level weights if you ask me.
Cue renaming FOF to Flights of Fancy……….
If Exotic Dancer runs in the Hennessy I’ll take out two subscriptions to the FOF phoneline for the jumps!
I don’t think you actually belive what you wrote and I would be happy to give you a length of start and you can have what you like on ED..of course you wouldn’t have a brass penny on as you know Kauto is in a different claas to ED when on song.
You are also making the classic error is comparing Denman’s victory to this years race. It has no bearing on it whatsoever.
How would you compare Exotic Dancer to Trabolgan who won the race with 11stone 12lbs 3 years ago?
It’s somewhat tragic, Fist, that with "all your years in the game", you don’t have the first clue about handicapping.
How would you compare Exotic Dancer to Trabolgan who won the race with 11stone 12lbs 3 years ago?
Just so you know Fist, at the weights ED would have to have given Trabolgan 21 lb (and Denman last year 11 lb). It’s nothing short of a huge ask, more ‘huge’ than taking on a rival rated 7 lbs higher than him at level weights if you ask me.
To be honest I wouldn’t know Trabolfgan if he jumped up and bit me but thanks for the info.
But what weight he would have to have given Denman last year is irrelevant.
Grasshopper isn’t far off the mark I don’t take much interest in handicaps and I judge horses on their own merits. If I see a good horse and he is getting weight from others who I think are not as good I back it. Other than that I don’t bet in handicaps as it’s a mugs game. The fact you get 6/1 favourites tell youinstantlly how difficult it is to find a winner.
Ok Denman last year wa easy to fancy. The oposition was very poor and he was always going to run a huge race on a galloping track like Newbury.
I say the weight he would have to have given Denman is irrelevant because had he run in the race last year and Denman didn’t then he would actually have been better in with most horses than he would be if there was no minimum weight.
Take the third horse Charachter B…….he carried 10stone and ask yourself what weight would ED have carried? So he would actually have been well in against most would he not?
The question I would be asking myself before jumping in is would he have been good enough to beat Dream Alliance……….you could bet your backside he would.
Admittedly this years race looks better but how good will it look on the day. If it cuts up it may not take any more winning than it did last year. Denman was in a different county to those last year and he was never out of a canter.
To say he would have no chance based on Denman and handicapping would be the correct thing to say if there was no minimum and no maximum weight but there is.
Exotic Dancer is a helluva horse on his day and would be a superstar if it were not for Kauto Star. I would be amazed if he wee to run he wasn’t in the first 4 but I wouldn’t be backing him to win.
Please note guys at no time did I say he would win the Hennessy I said he could win. That’s a world of difference.
Incredible to think now that had Exotic Dancer ran in last years Hennessey with 11-12, Denman would have carried 11-1. He really was a handicap good thing at 5/1! knowhere ran an eyecatching race that day too and went on to further success particularly when beating Our Vic at Cheltenham in January! I still cant believe how well handicapped Knowhere was in the Old roan chase 11lb better off with Exotic Dancer for 11/2l defeat in the Boylesports Gold Cup! incredible!
You’ve lost me mate. I stated facts ED would obviously be well in with many horses if he is more than 2 stone ahead of them. What’s so hard to understand about that.
Regarding Alberta’s Run you can take this as gospel.
Jonjo won’t run him in the Hennessy if it comes up soft or heavy. Nothing is cast in stone and anyone who assumes he is a definate runner should think again.
I quite like the look of Battlecry who may well have beat Big Bucks at Aintree but for the blunder two out when allowed to bowl along in front. Flat track should suit and a place at least should be possible at around the 16/1 mark. A negative would be its previous performances at Newbury however he did seem to improve a fair bit towards the end of the season.
As for Exotic Dancer I can’t see that winning a Henessey if taking part, in fact I can’t see it winning anything unless Jonjo bungs it back over hurdles off 160.
Fists, you seem to have a hotline to the JJO’N yard and this is a serious question, would Tony McCoy say that Exotic Dancer is the best 3mile+ chaser he has ridden ?
Its the completely irrelevant comparison with Trabolgan i don’t understand. Maybe you’re the one who should "take up tiddlewinks" after that little pearler?
Character Builder finished 3rd last year and John Quinn was in no hurry with him stating he would be a much better horse this season. If he comes to himself over the next 2 weeks and gets in at decent weight I think he will be the one they all have to beat. The one problem I have is it may be a better race this year than last so EW may be the best policy with him.
The weights will tell us more so everthing should be kept on hold until known.
Nice trial from Character Building over timber sees him a best priced 8/1 for the race. I hope you had a bob or two pre the publishing of the weights FoF.
I quite like the look of Battlecry who may well have beat Big Bucks at Aintree but for the blunder two out when allowed to bowl along in front. Flat track should suit and a place at least should be possible at around the 16/1 mark. A negative would be its previous performances at Newbury however he did seem to improve a fair bit towards the end of the season.
As for Exotic Dancer I can’t see that winning a Henessey if taking part, in fact I can’t see it winning anything unless Jonjo bungs it back over hurdles off 160.
Fists, you seem to have a hotline to the JJO’N yard and this is a serious question, would Tony McCoy say that Exotic Dancer is the best 3mile+ chaser he has ridden ?
Tony said fooked if I know
……ED is up there but this question has been asked countless times. Tony regards Gloria Victis is the best he ever rode or would have been but on the form book that honour would go to Best Mate
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