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I’ve had a long day and can’t be arsed to argue with you.
I will still be here next year as I hope you will. One of us will be right the other will not.
Best ot luck – sincerely – and speak to you re: this in March.
In addition, if Kauto Star beats Denman, wherever and whenever it may be, I will cover him with the same praise you and others do as it will be fully deserved.
Winning what looks now like a bad handicap and taking on the best in the country at levels is a world apart.
There have been a lot of good Hennessy winners who came no where near to winning the Gold Cup and only 2 have acheived that since Arkle. Bregawn and Burrough Hill Lad who lumped 12 stone in the race. There have been 5 times that amount who have won the King George V and went on to win the Gold Cup
If one decent horse had even bothered him in the race I would be veiwing it deifferently but as it turned out he beat nothing.
Rather harsh there FoF ~ Denmania may see that the Beast of Ditcheat is slightly cramped in the market but to say he beat nothing or that this was a bad handicap would be simply foolish. It’s also disingenuous to downplay the role of the Hennessy as a test for prospective Gold Cup winners.
I believe that plenty of the also rans will show that this was a fairly decent handicap (if short of championship quality) and I’ll allow time to be my judge.
In terms of historical Hennessy pointers, it should be noted that Bregawn didn’t carry 12 stone, but "merely" 11’10 while subsequent Gold Cup winners Jodami and The Fellow contrived to get beaten carrying 10’2 and 11’13 respectively behind a horse who was 21lb wrong. A number of horses have been beaten in the Hennessy before going on to make the frame in the Gold Cup such as Dubacilla, Rough Quest, Commanche Court, Harbour Pilot, Hedgehunter, Royal Auclair and L’ami; all the above carried less weight than Denman and some significantly so. Moreover, the likes of Teeton Mill and One Man were rated the best the best of their year after carrying light weights to victory at Newbury.
Of all the horses mentioned above, it’s hard to name one who was as impressive a winner of the race as Denman and that marks him out as a deserved favourite for the big one come March and if I was a bookie I’d concur. In saying that, I agree that he’s not really a betting proposition and Newbury will probably prove to be his ideal track, but he really is a monster and we should truly relish him long before we look to knock him.
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Personally, I think comparing Denman with Kauto Star at this early stage is ludicrous. I’ll endeavour to put some perspective on the subject, even if it’s only mine.
Last season, in his first race, Kauto Star came out and gave lumps of weight to much better horses than today’s and beat them absolutely pointless; far more impressively (imo) than Denman did today. On his 2nd outing, he did an equally impressive demolition job on proven grade1 horses, and over half a mile further. Since that time, and disregarding his 2 ‘prep’ races he has consistently shown his class and versatilty winning top class races at varying distances, on a variety of courses, and on most types of ground.
Deman has won 4 small field novice chases and 2 of the most gruelling distance races a young horse can face. He has also shown a vulnerabilty that Kauto Star hasn’t, when faced with an insufficient test of stamina as in the Sun Alliance hurdle. Sure he is an exciting horse, and maybe has the potential to be a superstar but, as things stand, he has not shown the class of Kauto Star at the very top level, and is unlikely ever to show his adaptability.ps to Corm
Can you do anything about all these different threads on the same subject?
It’s like trying to find your way around a car boot sale at the momentRH
Kauto was hugely impressive to the eye at Aintree last season but it was also childishly simple to pick holes in that form. To knock the Hennessy form yesterday you have to genuinely believe that 17 horses have run below their handicap marks, and that seems rather unlikely in one of the best handicaps of the season
To also say that "Denman has shown a vulnerability that Kauto Star hasnt" is pure bunkum. Denman is unbeaten over fences and is a more accomplished jumper of a fence than Kauto Star. If you want to knock a horse based on hurdles runs, then what about the 5 races where Kauto Star was stuffed over hurdles in France??? Or don’t they count?
I’m not really here to knock Kauto Star as I believe he is one of the very best chasers of my lifetime, but I do think we know where his ceiling is now (albeit at a very high level) , and although the ratings people wont be able to award Denman a superior rating at this stage, for me there was every indication yesterday that he would be capable of beating Kauto Star..
The RPR of 175 for Denman has everything behind the second running below its handicap mark. You have to go back to 1998 (when there were only 7 finishers) when that was last the case in this race.
The only time in the intervening period when there have been more finishers than this year was in 2002, when RPR had the first 6 better than their marks.
The rating is a conservative one by RPR’s own terms of reference, in other words.
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TDK
Bunkum or not, Denman has shown, in his only hurdle race run at a sound pace against other good horses, that he lacks the turn of foot required in anything but a slog. There is lttle doubt, on his chase form so far, it will be much the same over fences, at the very top level, of course. You might not think that a weakness, I do, and one that will manifest in every good race he runs in where stamina isn’t at a premium.
If Kauto Star has a weakness, apart from the odd bad jump which he has shown isn’t insurmountable, then he hasn’t shown it yet, in a series of chases at the very top level. He may be vulnerable in an extreme test of stamina, but has yet to meet one and is unlikely to meet many in his lifetime.
The situation, at the moment as I see it, is that we have 2 horses vying for favoritism in the Gold Cup, one has clearly proven he can do it and the other might do. I really am surprised that you see that as parity?What about Kauto Star’s defeats over hurdles? You conveniently forgot them I see…
Kauto achieved things last year that Denman clearly won’t – namely winning the Tingle Creek, King George and Gold Cup in the same season (undoubtedly a fantastic achievement)
What we are arguing about here is which horse has the better chance in this year’s Gold Cup, not which horse is the more versatile. The Gold Cup is a staying chase and I think that Denman has he ability to beast Kauto Star under these conditions. Clearly the more rain the better for Denman, but I would still give him an excellent chance on a sound surface.
Prufrock – agree the RPR looks very conservative. Regardless, it wasnt so much the fact that Denman won off top weight, nor even his margin of victory that impressed, it was the sheer sense of superiority he seemed to enjoy all the way round. Maybe 175P from Timeform – LOL?
What we are arguing about here is which horse has the better chance in this year’s Gold Cup
I’ll lay you 100/1 Denman for this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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TDK
I haven’t ‘conveniently forgotten’ the French hurdle form, but without the full form I am unable to make any proper judgement.
That isn’t the case with Denman, as he was clearly beaten by an apparently lesser horse simply because he was unable to find a turn of foot at the end of a properly run test.. Very similar really, albeit in different circumstances, to the much vaunted Detroit City and Fair Along at this year’s festival who had also been eulogised previously for winning softer races easily.
You might think Denman good enough, even on the faster ground that is nowadays normal for a Cheltenham Gold Cup and he may well be but, no matter how you dress it up, he hasn’t yet shown it.That jump at the water was quite spectacular –
Bob Beamon-ish
The shot from the overhead camera was excellent. Denman taking a length off what was otherwise a fine leap by Sir Rembrandt had something of the ‘out with the old, in with the new’ about it.
It’s a measure of how this game can get to you sometimes that I still feel elated by yesterday’s action after a good night’s kip
RH – It seems bizarre to me to criticise Denman for coming 2nd in a Sun Alliance hurdle, yet ignore Kauto’s numerous defeats over hurdles simply because you are "unable to make a proper judgement".
I also don’t think that possessing a "turn of foot" is generally the decisive factor in winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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I also don’t think that possessing a "turn of foot" is generally the decisive factor in winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Really?
Without it, none of last season’s first 3 would have finished where they did.
It is also difficult to recall a winner who didn’t, ever since the drainage was altered.Looks Like Trouble and Mr Mulligan were far more in the Denman mould than Kauto Star, as was See More Business really for all he has 2 King Georges on his CV too.
Last season’s Gold Cup was an exception to the norm in the way it was run, I don’t see how Denman’s rider will allow that sort of gallop tpo be set this season.
Indeed DJ – it may actually be Kauto who has something to prove ~ namely that he is a stout enough stayer to win a Gold Cup run at a searching pace….
It was the most slowly-run Gold Cup on my sectionals (3 out) in the last 10 years and probably a lot longer than that.
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