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i think denman will keep plodding on under his big weight but will be vulnerable to better handicapped rivals, especially as he is an old fashoned type that usually need the run, even with top conections. look at my way last weekend!
i would have sided with abragante but pipes horses are not finishing their races well enough at the moment so i think i will be backing new alco to win.
I will also be backing monkerhostin each way if he were to run as he will get every yard of the trip and is arguably reasonably weighted.I have it betweeen Denman, Snowy Morning and Abragante.
I think Denman is only fairly priced to produce a top class performance first time out, with bigger targets ahead- but it is possible.
Snowy Morning is a possible bet if the vibes from the stable are strong enough but Willie isn’t flying just yet and his match fitness worries me slightly.
Abragante must have a big chance, but memories of how Pipe’s horses ran at Cheltenham last week haunt me- if he started winning better races even on the Friday confidence would increase. His other runner Dom D’Orgeval would have a squeak too with the same proviso.
Of the shorter prices I’d be against Mossbank who may be best fresh and may struugle to last home. I’d also think New Alco is underpriced given the number of chase runs he’s had- sudden improvement enough to win a Hennessy after 14 chase starts is rare.i think denman will keep plodding on under his big weight but will be vulnerable to better handicapped rivals, especially as he is an old fashoned type that usually need the run, even with top conections. look at my way last weekend!
i would have sided with abragante but pipes horses are not finishing their races well enough at the moment so i think i will be backing new alco to win.
I will also be backing monkerhostin each way if he were to run as he will get every yard of the trip and is arguably reasonably weighted.PLODDING, VULNERABLE. NEED THE RUN
you ever wish you hadn’t bet a horse?
To be honest some of the horses entered I wouldn’t know if they jumped up and bit me but it’s not the first stupid bet I’ve had or the last
When you look at past results it’s been along time since a really high class horse has won the race with a big weight……..some of the results are scary ONE MAN 10st.. geezus where were we all that day? Teeton Mill 10st 5lbs Gallway Blaze (had a right touch on him) 10st…….if there’s one half as good as one of those Denman will be in big trouble. Hopefully for poor old me there isn’t but who knows?………..One Man 10st ????…….Can anyone remember what was top weight that day…must have been the ghost of Arkle
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As long as Denman plods home at the same speed he has when winning 10 of his 11 career races, he might just get away with it.
He is unlikely to lack fitness either, as this race has been the plan for a while and PN took the trouble to give him a spin around Exeter recently to ensure that he doesn’t.
If I remember correctly, he is in this race on the insistence of his part-owner, pro gambler Harry Findlay, and one assumes it is some of his money that has shortened his price to the present 4/1 best, which might still look long by Saturday evening.
I couldn’t have Abragante; impressive though his last win was, the 3 that gave him weight and followed him home would be unlikely to even get into this race. He can’t hold that many secrets from the handicapper either, as he has given him an extra 14lbs to carry whilst leaving the horse (Tom Sayers) he beat 2.5l on the same mark. Also, his initial target was the much shorter Paddy Power, a race probably more in keeping with his 3 recent wins in slowly run 3 milers, than the severe stamina test the Hennessy normally provides.
If there is a danger – apart from Newbury becoming a bog – then it surely should be Snowy Morning, a long-looking 10l behind Denman in the Sun Alliance, and a generous 18lb better in because of it, Considering that he had in his wake such as Aces Four, Gazza’s Girl (2nd in a valuable race in Ireland, Sunday) and Ungaro, horses of an entirely different calibre to those behind Abragante, yet meets that horse at only 4lbs difference, it is difficult to see why he wouldn’t finish in front of him on Saturday.I like the look of Snowy Morning as well, this is a race Willie Mullins knows how to prepare a horse for, though I was hoping for better than 9/1.
I make it he’s 20lb better off with Denman on Royal Sun Alliance running.
Also 20/1 e/w Sir Rembrandt is interesting, he’s 31lb well in on his best ever rating.
Top weight in the race won by One Man (4/1) was Cogent with 11-10 – 3/1 favourite was Dubacilla, who had 11-9.
One Man ran off a mark of 135 despite having won the Reynoldstown Novice Chase the previous season – his mark presumably helped by his poor run in the Sun Alliance.
Given the dominance of second season horses, I’d go along with Denman as the likeliest winner. On his demolition of Mr Pointment, you could even argue he’s well handicapped after Sunday!
AP
- Total Posts 17716
I like the look of Snowy Morning as well, this is a race Willie Mullins knows how to prepare a horse for, though I was hoping for better than 9/1.
I make it he’s 20lb better off with Denman on Royal Sun Alliance running.
And here’s me, thinking there was 14lbs in a stone?
If there is a danger – apart from Newbury becoming a bog – then it surely should be Snowy Morning, a long-looking 10l behind Denman in the Sun Alliance, and a generous 18lb better in because of it,
10l was such a margin and so comfortable I would find it hard to assess myself
I would be pretty sure that Denman has been properly prepped for this race and the more i look at him….
Would have to have doubts whether Abragante is quite the type for a very hard race such as this and the stable is floundering a bit.
As for Snowy Mountain, what were the reasons for his last appalling run?
If there is a danger – apart from Newbury becoming a bog – then it surely should be Snowy Morning, a long-looking 10l behind Denman in the Sun Alliance, and a generous 18lb better in because of it,
10l was such a margin and so comfortable I would find it hard to assess myself
I would be pretty sure that Denman has been properly prepped for this race and the more i look at him….
Would have to have doubts whether Abragante is quite the type for a very hard race such as this and the stable is floundering a bit.
As for Snowy Mountain, what were the reasons for his last appalling run?
Not sure, but Snowy Morning might have wanted more rain to come, he has a lot of successes with more heavy ground, where as it was Good last time he ran.
Abragante is taking a little bit of a walk this morning on Betfair. Currently out to 7.6 from 6.8 last night.
For how long have conditions changed regarding penalties? I was under the impression Abragante would be in this off his Wincanoton mark with a penalty rather than a stone higher.
I certainly recall Montifault starting a jonny short pants fav the Hennessy under a penalty after a hatchet job in the Badger Beer.
I like New Alco in this.
According to the RP today the publication-of-weights date was extended a few seasons ago- a retrograde step in my opinion. Half the fun in these early-closing races used to be seeing what was well in after a recent run.
More naany-statism by the authorities, similar to the silly proposal re chase v hurdles marks.Top weight in the race won by One Man (4/1) was Cogent with 11-10 – 3/1 favourite was Dubacilla, who had 11-9.
One Man ran off a mark of 135 despite having won the Reynoldstown Novice Chase the previous season – his mark presumably helped by his poor run in the Sun Alliance.
Given the dominance of second season horses, I’d go along with Denman as the likeliest winner. On his demolition of Mr Pointment, you could even argue he’s well handicapped after Sunday!
AP
Thanks for that I remember Dubacilla she was a very good mare and I think I backed her.
Denam the Demolisher? I’ll go for that
By pure coincidence Brown Chamberlin has joined us just in time for the Hennessy (Welcome). He, the horse, was one of my biggest ever bets when he won the Hennessy with Francome on board. Haven’t got quite as much on Denman but this could be a good omen (fingers crossed)
Had a look through the form ( I know I’m supposed to do that before I place a bet
) I think he doesn’t have too much too worry about if he’s not in the 4 I’ll eat my hat<<<<<<<<<<<<<Liar !!! you don’t wear a hat 
Not such a coincidence, time of the year and showing my age with one of my best winners and therefore favourite NH horses.
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