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well these stats are against denman only 2 horses have ever won at 10yrs old Diamond Edge and Mandarin. He first won it at 6yrs old then 4 years later he did it , thats impressive.
I looked at the form last nite and i was convinced Weird Al was the danger but how wrong was I.
Diamond harry has fantastic form it does really stand out apart from everything else but my 200 is already on denman so their is not a lot i can do now but just hope.
I might just stick a cheeky 50 on diamond on friday for back up
Particularly keen on Carruthers now. Still a nice price, too.
Why I remember his maternal uncle, Destriero. And what a hoss he was!
I quite like statistical arguments but I think the age of winner stats are potentially misleading. The key stat is
winners at age x/runners at age x. If very few ten year olds enter then we would not expect many ten year olds to win.It may be that the adjusted stats tell the same story as the unadjusted stats, but until this is clarified I don’t find them in themselves overwhelmingly against Denman. It’s simply a matter of biology for me.
I have been trying to find out more about the aging process in horses but can’t find out much that is scientific. It seems like roughly you can multiply a horse’s age by 3 to get the human equivalent so Denman would be 31 and a half or just over the hill if he was a human steeplechaser. Does anyone know any more e.g. do French bred horses age more quickly?
I can’t be arsed to do the age x/runners at age x math, but I have the feeling that 10-y-os are under-represented. In any case, it appears to me that conditions discriminate against older horses (or is that favour younger ones?).
The age of winner stat is something of an obsession for me and worked very nicely in last year’s Cheltenham GC where I found that 10-y-os have a poor record not only as winners, but also as placed horses. The result was that I laid both Kauto Star and Denman for places. Before the race, I was convinced that the Denman lay was already money in the bank, and vice versa with Kauto Star. I was wong of course, but as it turned out Kauto Star’s misfortune proved the more lucrative.
Kauto Star and Denman cannot go on for ever; Imperial Commander will have turned 10 next year. They may have a couple of big days left in them, but two things are certain in this game. First, horses do decline eventually. Secondly, statistics do not "strive for balance" any more than a tossed coin "strives" to come down tails after coming down heads the time before. It may not be "smart" WLIVELY, but you have to start somewhere.
Hi guys,
Bit of a newb but can you help clarify the phrase "competing from out of the handicap" for me please?
With Denman being so heavy in the Hennessy, why will the likes of Diamond Harry and Wierd Al be considered at a disadvantage despite running 26lbs lower?
Thanks for any help.
Bit of a newb but can you help clarify the phrase "competing from out of the handicap"
Top weight carries 11-12 Pidge, Bottom weight is 10-0 thats the physical weights the horses are set to carry, Denman being rated 182 means he gets top weight so for a horse to carry 10 stone he would have to be rated 26lb below 182,
182 minus 26 eguals 156,unfortunately Weird al eg is rated 152 so that would mean he would really be carrying 9-10 if he were allowed to but because the race is framed for bottom weights to carry 10 stone,he is therefore 4lb out of the handicap! I wont mention Claimers riding though!Thanks Ante-Post King.
I get the claiming jockeys bit I just wasn’t sure whether 10-0 was the bottom weight a horse could carry. Thought I knew quite a bit about horse racing but obviously I have a long way to go!!
Is 10-0 always the bottom weight or have some horses carried under in the past?
Hi guys,
Bit of a newb but can you help clarify the phrase "competing from out of the handicap" for me please?
With Denman being so heavy in the Hennessy, why will the likes of Diamond Harry and Wierd Al be considered at a disadvantage despite running 26lbs lower?
Thanks for any help.
Handicap weights are based on the "official" BHA ratings relative to the top weighted horse, with the proviso that the minimum weight carried will be 10 stone and the maximum 11 stone 12 lbs
So if Denman is rated at 182 and carries 11 st 12, and Diamond Harry, for example, rated 152 (30 lbs less), DH would in theory carry 9 st 10 were it not for the proviso that the minimum weight to be carried is 10 st. This extra four lbs carried relative to Denman (and those rated less than or equal to 26 lbs inferior to Denman) is described as being 4 lbs "out of the handicap", "wrong" etc..
Fans of Diamond Harry will point to his very strong form in the first of his two completed chases. Beating Knockara Beau (rated 147 at the time) by 16 lengths in receipt of 7 lbs – perhaps that should give him a figure of 156.
Then again, his Newbury form against Bensalem (140) giving 3 lbs and winning by 2 lengths – 145? That does not read quite so well.
Five wins from 7 races over hurdles with a rating of 164 means he has the potential to go all the way to the top over fences. His win over the brush hurdles at Haydock was impressive and in a big field. If he produces that form at Newbury over fences (theoretically 10 st 8, so 8 lbs well in), he will almost certainly win! If he produces that form and is beaten by Denman, then Denman has run his best ever race.
Personally, I think Diamond Harry’s two wins over fences were egg and spoon jobs, he has not had enough experiences over the larger obstacles and I am not that impressed with his jumping. Yes, he loves Newbury, 9 from 12 under rules, always won 1st time out.
Personally, I think Diamond Harry’s two wins over fences were egg and spoon jobs, he has not had enough experiences over the larger obstacles and I am not that impressed with his jumping. Yes, he loves Newbury, 9 from 12 under rules, always won 1st time out.
I don’t think starting off last season over timber and then going over fences helped his education much to be honest. But he’s in the care of a master trainer who was responsible for the training feat of the Jumps season so far last weekend and he’ll have schooled Harry like buggery over the bigger obstacles all summer.
Returning to the age stats, I have done a rough calc based on the original 66 entrants to this race. If the age distribution of these is representative of past age distributions we have the following stats for winners %/entrants%
11 2/4.5 = 0.44
10 4/9.1 = 0.44
9 19/21.2 = 0.90
8 17/27.3 = 0.62
7 40/25.8 = 1.55
6 19/12.1 = 1.57so it looks like younger horses really do have a better chance of winning. Other things being equal, if there are 16 starters, the older horses should be around 25 -1 and the younger ones 7-1.
Backing Denman at 5-1 looks like a poor investment but might not be stupid given his past success on this testing track and the fact that many horses are out of the handicap.
I quite like Carruthers. Seems classy enough and likes the course. Though it is hard not to take notice of the likes of Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Taranis.
I’d probably go win on Carruthers and e/w the other 3 mentioned.
I like Denman and honestly hope he wins, but this is a really strong race and he has his work cut out for him. I only hope Nichols is setting him up for a run in the National
But that’s for lateBeing the ruler of the Ante-Post kingdom i feel its my responsibility to offer a word of caution to those who think
Denman
is a good thing for this years Hennessey Gold Cup! I love the horse and he did me a good turn twice in the RSA and Gold Cup,he has twice won the Hennessy,once off a mark of 161 in 07 when
Madison du Berlais
ran off a mark of 151 to finish 4th,Denman won again in 09 off a revised mark of 174,in between his victories it was Madison du Berlais who won the 08 race off a mark of 159! Both horses renew the challenge again this year Denman has gone up to a mark of 182,some 21lb higher than when he beat Madison in 07,Madison has been dropped to a mark of 157 a turn around of 23lb,if that wasn"t enough to put you off in between Hennesseys Madison has beaten Denman a further 2 times off virtually level weights! Those who take ratings as gospel will be filling their boots of the 16/1 freely available about Madison du Berlais a horse who will be tuned to the minute by the Pipe stable and a horse who doesn"t mind what the going is and a previous winner to boot! He looks to good to be true in reality and as much as i respect him i still think this years 2nd season Novices are special! I hope Weird Al does enough to keep my Gold cup vouchers from the shredder but i am convinced this race is tailor made for
Diamond Harry
! I notice there"s a lot of "Newbies" on the forum of late and they make interesting reading,you never know there might be a new Ante-Post King among them!
Returning to the age stats, I have done a rough calc based on the original 66 entrants to this race. If the age distribution of these is representative of past age distributions we have the following stats for winners %/entrants%
11 2/4.5 = 0.44
10 4/9.1 = 0.44
9 19/21.2 = 0.90
8 17/27.3 = 0.62
7 40/25.8 = 1.55
6 19/12.1 = 1.57so it looks like younger horses really do have a better chance of winning. Other things being equal, if there are 16 starters, the older horses should be around 25 -1 and the younger ones 7-1.
Backing Denman at 5-1 looks like a poor investment but might not be stupid given his past success on this testing track and the fact that many horses are out of the handicap.
I don’t think it’s so much a question of age alone, but miles on the clock, too, including hard races. Paul Nicholls reckons he seems better than ever. Recently, a trainer said that about a horse of his and he was correct, but sometimes I believe they flatter on the gallops to deceive. Maybe it takes a real race for even the horse to know. But in any case, he’s giving a lot of weight to horses who are not handicappers, but good Grade one winners. We’ll see, but ah hae ma doots, for sure.
I’m on Carruthers and want to have a little on Pandorama too. A bit late, pricewise, though!
Well lads i hope your all wrong . Ive had 200 on the nose for denman , I did the same last year and he pissed it. Im hearing all this 8 pound higher mark buisness and i aint having it. Hes unstoppable at newbury so take the hint. So tell me a horse who can match him. The only danger i see is Weird al but will that horse stay and jump like denman.
Mr nicholls said their is a couple of more memorable days ahead of denman so that will do me.
Try Niche Market who ran well in this race last year, then had him beat in the Aon in February, before idling in front and caught by Tricky Trickster.
So surly on a featherweight and with the weather like it is must stand a very good chance of victory.
Well lads i hope your all wrong . Ive had 200 on the nose for denman , I did the same last year and he pissed it. Im hearing all this 8 pound higher mark buisness and i aint having it. Hes unstoppable at newbury so take the hint. So tell me a horse who can match him. The only danger i see is Weird al but will that horse stay and jump like denman.
Mr nicholls said their is a couple of more memorable days ahead of denman so that will do me.
Try Niche Market who ran well in this race last year, then had him beat in the Aon in February, before idling in front and caught by Tricky Trickster.
So surly on a featherweight and with the weather like it is must stand a very good chance of victory.
Can’t possibly think he has a chance of catching up with Denman, the latter having better form and never beaten by him (except for the one where McCoy fell off).
Horses & Thoughts
Denman: Too much weight and may have his own ideas about the game
Neptune Collonges: Best watched after time off
Taranis: Talented, but fragile. Goes well when fresh and needs to here with Carruthers getting 10 lb pull
China Rock: Interesting contender if 3rd to Kauto Star at levels to be taken at face value
Madison Du Berlais: Well handicapped if back to best, but seemed to lose the plot last year
Silver By Nature: Needs it heavy and never won 1st time out
Barbers Shop: Has not won for nearly 2 years and poor first run
Carruthers: Would be half the price if trained by PN or soft ground. Well handicapped on Cheltenham & Aintree Grade 1 form. Course winner thrashing Niche Market & Big Fella thanks.
The Tother One: Not won for 2 years although has put up some decent performances in defeat
Glencove Marina: Not raced beyond 2m6f but good prep race
Diamond Harry: Very talented hurdler who won 2 small field chases in shortened novice season. Needs to improve his jumping
Weird Al: Obvious pick on this season’s form, (dht with Little Josh over inadequate trip) unbeaten over hurdles and fences
Burton Port: Talented young 2nd season chaser who has to enter the reckoning
Dream Alliance: Would enter consideration on soft, but even 10 st is too much
Notre Pere: Very good on heavy ground season before last and prep race would be encouraging were it not for mistakes
Take The Breeze: Fine prep race at Ascot and not too far behind Burton Port at Aintree last year
Big Fella Thanks: Talking horse that’s poorly handicapped and slow as a hearse. Immediately made me look to see if the shrewd trainer had anything else in it.
Hey Big Spender: Beat Big Fella Thanks off levels at Carlisle in the Heavy 1st time out. Not a fan of BFT
Killyglen: Howard Johnson cast off hard to assess
Niche Market: Not for me tho ran well in this in the past
Pandorama: Leading novice last season, first time out not a problem, won in a big field and rates major consideration.
The Package: Big field experience and advantage of a run, but others make more appeal at the weights
Razor Royale: Ran well for a long way 1st time out, but we are getting into "too far wrong" territory
Rare Bob: Not too far away from Glencove Marina & Notre Pere, but too far wrong
Hills Of Aran: Too far wrong
Tatenen: Switched stables – can’t see why he’s still entered at these weights
Horner Woods: Perhaps the change of scene will do him good, but no form since respectful 2nd in fast RSA 09
Dance Island: Too far wrong with the likes of Burton Port
Abbeybraney: Not a prayer
Wogan: Too far wrong and never won 1st time
Saphir Des Bois: Not for me
Far More Serious: Nope
Martys Mission: NopeAre last season’s staying novices as good as we think? This race always goes some way towards answering that question, which is what makes it so exciting. Although 2nd season novices have a great record in this race, it is also true that 7-y-os have a 40% record in this race. My thinking is that Carruthers, though not a novice, has the added bonus of rock solid Cheltenham Gold Cup and Totesport Gold Bowl form in the book to boot and is also best value of my other considerations Wierd Al and Pandorama.
If I were to go against Denman, I’d certainly like the look of Burton Port. He’s a horse on the upgrade, he’s decently handicapped (Well, inasmuch as one can be when out of the handicap!) and I think he’s a good e/w bet.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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