Henderson – two mile specialist?

[cormack15]

Reading the Pricewise ante-post piece on the RSA chase today, I noted Segal made mention, when talking about Long Run, of the fact that Nicky Henderson seems to do better with his chasers over shorter distances. That interested me so I did a little research into it and found the following results.

I looked at 5 trainers and analysed their results over 2m to 2m4f and then their results over >2m4f and compared strike rates. The trainers were Henderson, Nicholls, Hobbs, King and Twiston Davies.

In all 5 cases they had a better strike rate with their chasers over shorter trips. However, there was quite a bit of variation around how much better. Here’s the league table – the percentage figure being how much better their strike rate was over shorter trips (in all chases) –

King 69.41%
Hobbs 43.32%
Nicholls 38.06%
Henderson 37.06%
Twiston Davies 28.64%

So, the trainer, from this group of 5, with the biggest bias in strike rate towards shorter trips is Alan King (strike rate of 15.69% over trips greater than 2m 4f and a strike rate of 26.58% over 2m4f and less). That’s not to say King is bad at training stayers. His strike rate is better than Twiston-Davies (lowest strike rate over both sets of distances) and just below Hobbs.

Twiston Davies was the one who had the lowest bias in favour of shorter trips.

Henderson, contrary to the perception of our friend at the Racing Post, had the second lowest bias of this group.

Tomorrow night –

One of the following list of trainers has, between Jan 2003 and Nov 2009 a rather paltry 5.13% strike rate in Grade One and Two chases in the UK, training just two winners from 39 runners for a level stakes loss of 73.51% of turnover. He has a host of horses at the forefront of the market at theis year’s festival yet the stats would seem to be against him.

Who is he?

King, Twiston Davies, Hobbs, Henderson, O’Neill, Mullins or Nicholls

THEN – Find out on Thursday night which of the above list is the only one that hasn’t trained a single Grade One or Two hurdle winner during the same period – and he’s tried no fewer than 23 times.

[wallace-no7]

Very good piece

[Ken(West Derby)]

Are we allowed to guess please Corm?
I’ll guess Mullins.

[Ken(West Derby)]

Second thoughts, O’Neill?

[wallace-no7]

Defintely not Mullins…….sure he had 2 Grade 1 winners at the festival in 09 at least.

Jonjo it must be

[Pajo]

It’s not Jonjo.

Alberta’s Run won three and Exotic Dancer won two(?).

[Pajo]

Can only think of Cooldine for Mullins. Who else?

[rory]

Can only think of Cooldine for Mullins. Who else?

Rule Supreme.

[rory]

King, Twiston Davies, Hobbs, Henderson, O’Neill, Mullins or Nicholls

THEN – Find out on Thursday night which of the above list is the only one that hasn’t trained a single Grade One or Two hurdle winner during the same period – and he’s tried no fewer than 23 times.

King – Penzance, My Way De Solzen,Katchit, Franchoek, Nenuphar Collonges, Blazing Bailey & Walkon
Twiston-Davies – Fundamentalist & Pettifour
Hobbs – Made In Japan, Detroit City & Massini’s Maguire
Henderson – Blue Shark, Punjabi, Binocular & Zaynar
O’Neill – Spectroscope, Iris’s Gift, Intersky Falcon, Lingo, Rhinestone Cowboy, Black Jack Ketchum & Wichita Lineman
Mullins – Ebaziyan, Fiveforthree Mikael D’Haguenet
Nicholls – Cornish Rebel, Denman, Noland, Silverburn, Celestial Halo & Big Buck’s

Perhaps I’ve misread the question?

[cormack15]

Sorry Rory – not misunderstood, my fault for not being clear –

Doesn’t include Novice events or Handicaps. I’ll come to those later.

Mare only races not included either!

[Anonymous]

They’ve still all won Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurddles during the mentioned period Corm…..sack your researcher mate

King: Katchit G1 Champion Hurdle
Twiston Davies: Pettifour G2 John Smiths Hurdle
Hobbs: Detroit City G2 Boylesport
Henderson: Punjabi G1 Champion Hurdle
O’Neill: Iris’s Gift G1 World Hurdle
Mullins; G1 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Series Fiveforthree
Nichols: Big Bucks G1 World Hurdle

[rory]

They’ve still all won Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurddles during the mentioned period Corm…..sack your researcher mate

Mullins; G1 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Series Fiveforthree

That was at Punchestown, Fist, so Willie Mullins is clearly the answer to Corm’s riddle.

[cormack15]

Yes,

WP Mullins

it is – awful record in non-novice Grade 1 or 2 hurdles in the UK. (He did win a Mares only Grade 2 though)

To be fair, only 5 of these started at single figure odds.

[Irish Stamp]

How many has he ran though?

Off my head Fiveforthree, Nobody Told Me and Rule Supreme have all won open Grade 1 hurdle races for him in recent years (not at Cheltenham but G1’s none the less).

[cormack15]

The man to avoid in the Grade 1 or 2 Chases (non-novices)is…

N J Henderson

Very poor strike rate over last 7 years and lots of fancied runners.

[Expect To Win]

I always blamed Mick Fitz for the poor jumping performances of Henderson chasers, always seemed scared to "put them at the fences", maybee he was experienced enough to know they were not worth falling off. I only ever backed him on rock solid jumpers who I thought were able enough to go round with anyone on.

Perhaps my assessment was misguided, We shall have to see if there is an upturn this year with another jock on.

[Ken(West Derby)]

Judging by my earlier posts on this thread, it just serves to prove what I’ve been telling myself for years i.e. go with your original selection and don’t change your bet!
My learning curve has long assumed the shape of a vicious circle, I fear.
K

[Author]

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