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30 plus horses
2.15 Exe Night of Glory
5.45 Kem Lawn Ranger
1.40 Exe Undefined Beauty
3.35 Cat Totalize
2.40 Ling Running Wolf
3.00 Cat BentelimarWhilst at the “machine” I thought to look for any late(ish) market movers just to see if there were any eye-catchers, because I decided against doubling up my stake on POWER and PEACE (the early mover).
ENDLESSLY [5.15 Kempton] @ 7/4…………….. LOST
Fingers crossed it may with O. Murphy’s help do the biz!
Billy's Outback Shack
Thursday January 5
The VAMPIRE plan = COOL SPIRIT [1.35 Southwell]
Composite
COOL SPIRIT A/A
HELEN SHERBET [3.20 Southwell] @ 7/4
MAMBO DANCER [7.30 Chelmsford] @ 2/1
Plus the double
Billy's Outback Shack
Just the one early market mover for Thursday.
TABERNAS [6.30 Chelmsford] @ 13/8
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday January 26
All meetings today are available for consideration (NO HEAVY) which has created an overload problem for me and so I have missed the VAMPIRE plan and will not be checking the early price movers.
The COMPOSITE selections provide 7 possibles plus a couple of extreme odds-on which are too short to be worthy of mention.
MOUNT MEWS [1.55 Doncaster] & NUBE NEGRA [2.30 Doncaster] despite also showing via the Vampire plan are missed because the early shows put them odds-on.
Two others at Lingfield are also passed: – ROSEAU CITY [12.10] AMBIENT [1.45] are filtered out due to price and market position.
THREE for today are: –
PERFECT HARMONY [1.25 Doncaster] @ 13/8 ———————————- LOSTPROTEK DES FLOS [3.15 Huntingdon] @ 11/8 ——————————— LOST
WIFF WAFF [7.45 Kempton] @ 11/8 —————————————— LOST
In for a penny, in for a pound as my dear old mum used to say and so I have included 3 x doubles and a treble.
Billy's Outback Shack
Good luck with those Billion.
I am soldiering on with my idea of top 5 trainers at individual courses but have not had a profitable day since Sunday. I need a big winner soon or it will be back to the drawing board.
To be honest it is throwing up too many bets at the moment and becoming a bit of a struggle.I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysthese are all really short prices 30 points plus
1.55 Donc Mount News pl
2.30 donc Nube Negra W
1.00 Hunt Maestro Royal W
8.15 Kemp First Contact plHas the “quote” button disappeared and why has my last post been reported?
RAB123 I am using the Trainer Stats but I think using the top 5 is a mistake, I may cut it down to top 3.
Several times recently I have backed 4 horses in a 6 horse race and still not found the winner!I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysPuwell.
Your frustration is an old problem we have all experienced. It feels like the problem solvers are within touching distance but never quite comes to hand.
I can only express a personal view and hope by sharing there is something within the content you may find of value and suits your style.
Whatever method of selection we use, can find too many possible choices and I am finding those the method throws up form a second grouping from which the selections may be found. My own fear has been not to filter the 2nd group because I may (and do) miss some winners, however, I also avoid a heck of a lot of losers which is a great up-side.
HRB with your input provides a too large group which can if required be re-filtered bring the number down to what you like and find easy to manage.
Sticking to the task has never been easy for me but I have become fed up with seeing my bank, fun money, dwindle, only slowly bet it was getting smaller every week, I say week because there have been winning days and they were the ones keeping me to play in the same old way. I am (or have been) a professional loser!
Enough is enough.
I decided the time had come to stop the rot.
RULE No.1 – I don’t even look at the race card if the ground suggests HEAVY conditions.
This made a massive difference. I accept there are much better punters than myself who can use form etc. to their advantage and just the same can relish winner finding “in the mud”. I no longer mix it with these people, they only lead me astray, perhaps like the smoker trying to give up “the fag” (I am now about 15 years without a smoke and still miss it) and is best not to go into smoky places, the temptation is reduced.RULE No.2 Introduce 1/2/3 or more secondary filters which suit you and use them to reduce the numbers your HRB (hub) has produced. These filters may have nothing whatsoever to do with HRB input, they are YOUR second string filters which may set you apart from everyone else and make you unique.
MY STYLE is I hate long losing runs, HATE THEM! and so accept I will never find the 33/1 winner (well done by the way) and so my selections are favourites or thereabouts. Some sneer at that, I see rab123 has today posted two I rejected because they were odds-on shots, without my first round of choices being a larger pool to select from I may well have bet both MOUNT MEWS & NUBE NEGRA myself. Let them sneer, I spend my fun money as I chose not as they think I should.
MY SECONDARY FILTERS which I do not set in stone, they are not compulsory, although I am quite rigid within the usage of them are: –
I avoid amateur, female and apprentice riders.
I limit the time away from racing to 90 days.
Experimental limitation of market prices, 2/1 at present is my maximum figure, I have found my selections start to fail when over 2/1.
Horses without any form.
These most days reduce the main group to the number of bets I can handle but am sure you can find any number of 2nd filters which are not included within your HRB criteria.
We are what we are and it is my experience not to force anyone into a preferred style, chuck the ideas out there to be used in part (or whole) or not at all. Only by sharing can we grow, being part of a secret society helps no one, there is enough betting chances on one race card alone let alone 3/4/5 etc. then there is all the other sports, there is plenty for everyone but I do believe you can develop a unique plan if that is what you wish, you owe nothing to anyone, all I have said here is what suits me at this given time and may change as time goes on.
Billy's Outback Shack
Purwell I use Trainer Stats Attack Extra today just using odds Even to 7/2
there are four winners plus seconds already, have a look where the winners are
coming from.‘have a look where the winners are coming from’.
Excellent advice, Rab…..
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Saturday January 27
What a disaster it was for my picks yesterday! I felt so comfortable with them I put them in multiples I was that confident and then one followed the other as a loser. UNBELIEVABLE! I was shattered but I was getting ahead of myself as has happened in the past when the belief in them being 100% winners the shock follows.
The VAMPIRE Plan
BRISTOL DE MAI [2.25 Cheltenham] @ 7/4 ————————— LOST
MARIA’S BENEFIT [2.40 Doncaster] @ 5/6 ————————— WONComposite
Lingfield
AQUARIUM [1.25] @ 7/4 ——————————————– WON
CELESTIAL SPHERES [3.10] @ 7/4 ———————————– WON
*PRIDE of ANGELS [4.15] @ 9/4 ———————————— LOST*Pride of Angels price was within the acceptable range that I like other than bet365 being very much out of step at 9/4 making this an uncertain choice.
Billy's Outback Shack
30+ points clear today
12.40 Chelt Apples Shakira 109 W
1.30 Donc Sceau RoyalW
3.15 Donc Lami Serge pl
2.20 Utt Crank Em Up pl
4.00 Utt Major Hinderance pl
3.10 Ling Celestial Spheres WCHELTENHAM turned HEAVY and if I had known that I would not have bet on a losing selection.
I had doubts with the price of a second losing choice and so I am now pondering if I am any wiser.
SUNDAY
This is a big day for us. My wife reaches the grand age of 75 and so it is special. BUT! YES BUT! for the next 4 months before I reach 75 I revert to being her Toy Boy. Now that might be fun.
HEAVY is again mentioned for both meetings tomorrow and so I am having a day off and who knows what it may hold.
Billy's Outback Shack
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