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By posting all my bets for all to see I felt I’d be less likely to waste monery on a wet Monday at Devon &n Exeter, that’s working out to an extent at least
You after-timed the first 1300 points profit, CS.
Keep it up though, your good value.
Clearly we’re in the midst of a punting genius right here, perhaps you could right a feature column to spread your wisdom CS as quite clearly you have the bookies running for cover every day of the week. Forget ‘enemy number one’
this guys the betting ring antichrist.
Pretty new on here so i dont know if i am missing somthing or not??!
1. Well done CS you had a winning day! 3 out of 3 you cant get much better then that!
2. I can see where people are coming from on the each way front but at the end of the day ITS YOUR CHOICE NOT THERES!
3. i’ll keep an eye on your picks from now on looking back you seem to be spot on.
No insult or jibes intended to anyone.
Keep up the good work fella.
Yep id ditto that
Plenty of sarcasm evident on this thread, but the fact is that each way multiples on the type of race he is betting on are a licence to print money. That’s why you can’t get a decent stake on anywhere unless you are prepared to clock up the miles. Even that’s getting harder by the day though. Good luck to you though I’d be interested to know how on earth you can get anything like a grand on with this type of bet.
Chris
I probably got on because I didn’t go for 3 stakes races, one was a h’cap and avoided the obvious 2nd/3rd favs. It’s easier to slip favs in an ew bet through
I’m waiting for a full show to decide whether to have an ew Treble today….all three should win but at poor prices, it looks impossible (barring falls) for any of the three to be out of the frame although one is in a 7 runner race. The likely odds should be between 5-1 and 7-1 and the place odds nearly enough to cover the stakes should one or two of the three get beat.
The horses?
AN CATHAIOR MOR 3.20 Thurles
BABY RUN 5.25 Warwick
WHODOYOUTHINK 7.30 DundalkThe third one is way off my usual bets, I rarely bet on the flat and I think this would be my lifetime third ever bet on the AW
By posting all my bets for all to see I felt I’d be less likely to waste monery on a wet Monday at Devon &n Exeter, that’s working out to an extent at least
You after-timed the first 1300 points profit, CS.
I don’t think I’ve aftertimed any bet other than the actual stake on Diamond Harry on his chase debut, I posted before the race I’d have between 75 and 150 points to win depending on how I felt just before the race. The actual bet I had was 80 points win, if I was a "fantasy" punter I could easily have claimed to have placed the full 150 pts….wish I had
Although I’m not trying to make a living on the gee-gees I’m a serious backerKeep it up though, your good value.
I’ll do my best
This type of bet will not show long term prosperity, you can’t succeed taking under the true chance of the event occuring, it becomes even harder when you multiply the odds.
For example, you have two runners you think will win that are even money, but you’ve decided they are too short and should be 6/4, but as they ‘should‘ both win, it’s worth the risk because you’re getting 3/1 doubled.
Here in lies the problem, you’re now accepting a bet of 3/1 on what is a shade over 5/1 of actually occuring, the odds you’ve taken now doubled have become even more stacked against you. You wouldn’t take 3/1 on the roll of a die when the odds are so clearly against you, so why on a horse racing event?
Like anything, you have to identify positions where the odds are favourable. If you managed to secure 6/1 about the roll of a die in a treble you’d be getting 342/1 about a 215/1 chance, a good postition mathmatically, but you could be waiting a long time for a pay out.
Similairly you’ve found 3 runners at 1/2, 3/1 and 5/1 that could become a healthy 35/1 treble. You assess them as 1/5, 2/1 and 7/2, trebbled at 15/1. Now this looks like a favourable position providing we’ve assessed their chances accurately.
I don’t think I’ve aftertimed any bet other than the actual stake on Diamond Harry on his chase debut
I’m not certain CS, but it seemed you included Tidal Bay in an each way trixie with two losers but then revealed you’d had a single on him after he’d won producing a large (aftertimed) profit. I haven’t rechecked this, so apologies if I’ve misremembered.
This type of bet will not show long term prosperity, you can’t succeed taking under the true chance of the event occuring, it becomes even harder when you multiply the odds.
I don’t do these bets very often but I’ve done OK across the board, one bad setback Dunguib/Agus A Vic and a second when I decided the odds weren’t value and both horses won, Rite of Passage/Won In The Dark and didn’y have a bet
Most of the horse I back are between Evens and 8-1 with the occasional odds on shot and the very occasional outsider (25-1 EW 3rd on Saturday, Tidal Bay 14-1) I’d agree the chances of picking a 20-1 winner is probably more than 1 in 20 selections which, if I understand correctly, is the point you are making?For example, you have two runners you think will win that are even money, but you’ve decided they are too short and should be 6/4, but as they ‘should‘ both win, it’s worth the risk because you’re getting 3/1 doubled.
When I said "too short" I don’t mean the odds are shorter than I consider the animals should be individualy, they are shorter than I’d want to back as a single as I don’t want to invest a large sum on any one of the three horse
Here in lies the problem, you’re now accepting a bet of 3/1 on what is a shade over 5/1 of actually occuring, the odds you’ve taken now doubled have become even more stacked against you. You wouldn’t take 3/1 on the roll of a die when the odds are so clearly against you, so why on a horse racing event?
Like anything, you have to identify positions where the odds are favourable. If you managed to secure 6/1 about the roll of a die in a treble you’d be getting 342/1 about a 215/1 chance, a good postition mathmatically, but you could be waiting a long time for a pay out.
Similairly you’ve found 3 runners at 1/2, 3/1 and 5/1 that could become a healthy 35/1 treble. You assess them as 1/5, 2/1 and 7/2, trebbled at 15/1. Now this looks like a favourable position providing we’ve assessed their chances accurately.
I’d say there is more chance of all these winning than there is of spotting a 5-1 winner today….unless you can point me in the direction of one I’ve missed
I don’t think I’ve aftertimed any bet other than the actual stake on Diamond Harry on his chase debut
I’m not certain CS, but it seemed you included Tidal Bay in an each way trixie with two losers but then revealed you’d had a single on him after he’d won producing a large (aftertimed) profit. I haven’t rechecked this, so apologies if I’ve misremembered.
Roryyou are SORT of right….here are the two posts…judge for yourself
CheltenhamSpecialist
30 Jan 2010, 15:55Postby CheltenhamSpecialist on 30 Jan 2010, 15:55
Couln’t resist the 14-1 about Tidal Bay but only to a miserly 25 points ew :>(
Can’t belive I didn’y put on more, and that I waited right to the off before deciding
He’ll give Big Bucks a race at CheltenhamKitty now up to 1380 points Profit
*
CheltenhamSpecialist
30 Jan 2010, 13:17Postby CheltenhamSpecialist on 30 Jan 2010, 13:17
Probably wouldn’t have had a bet but it’s snowing so I’ll be indoors, TV on :>) and as I’ve entered the Weatherby’s Guide competition I’ve had a small interest inPerce Rock
Carruthers
Tiday Bay3 ew doubles ew treble total stake 14 & 1/2 points
Depending on how the Cleeve cuts up I may have a decent sum ew on Tiday Bay,
it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Carberry ends up on his back
The "decent sum" 25 pts ew was put on when he drifted to 14-1 no time to post it but in view of some of the stakes I’ve put on I think you’ll agree that I could have easily said 50 or 100 points and it wouldn’t have looked out of place or out of the oridinary…that is if I was a fanasist
Possibly there is, but if you don’t think their odds are worth backing singuarly, there is no difference doubled, trebbled etc.
I’m not saying it can’t be done CS, just that it’s only worth doing when the odds are favourable.
Denman should never have lost the Aon, but he did, Zaynar should have been a penalty kick, etc etc. These horse turn up and win, win some more and then lose, thats just
chance
, something none of us can get away from.
Possibly there is, but if you don’t think their odds are worth backing singuarly, there is no difference doubled, trebbled etc.
I’m not saying it can’t be done CS, just that it’s only worth doing when the odds are favourable.
Denman should never have lost the Aon, but he did,
I must give myself credit in as much that as I posted that I wouldn’t back him at any price with AP on board
Zaynar should have been a penalty kick, etc etc.
If you look back I tipped Quwetwo in this race but bottled my bet in the middle of placing it when the pop up on the Ladbrokes website told me the race was down to 4 runners
These horse turn up and win, win some more and then lose, thats just
chance
, something none of us can get away from.
AGREED!!!
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