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I know that it’s a few weeks away, but there are two recent winners who I really like in this.
El Paso Wood, and The Galloping Bear are both 20-1, and I’ve bet both of them early
I guess commodore and secret reprieve will both run as they need a win to maybe get in the big one
It be to late to get handicap mark up with running in this as this race takes place 19th February after the weight revealing from the handicapper for the national which is round about 15th or 16th February
VF x
Nothing really grabbing me enough for an early bet, but starting to draw up a shortlist anyway……
Good Boy Bobby Not a horse I’ve really taken to before, but I liked his attitude a lot at Wetherby, and up only 4lbs here, looks a big player 16’s
Sam Brown Always liked him, and bet him a few times. On his day very good, and hardly hammered for making Royal Pagaille work last time. If he get his ground, should go well 9’s
Time To Get Up Huge fan of this horse, and I’m happy to draw a line through that run in The Grand Sefton, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he wasn’t quite right. He certainly had a setback after that, so well-being not a given here. He is however, way ahead of his mark here on 144, and for all he’s got that Aintree entry, I think he’s perfect for Fairyhouse, so an outside chance they might not waste his mark here. Not guaranteed a run at Aintree either off this mark. 14’s
Elegant Escape This is the type of horse that I try my best not to get suckered in to, but he’s just so appealing here at 20’s. He wasn’t too bad in The Portman Cup, yet he’s been dropped a whopping 7lbs. 20’s looks too big. My head says “no”. My heart says, well my heart also says “no”, but I’m really tempted 20’s
Commodore Very impressive at Cheltenham, and not taken up a few entries since. Worth his 9lb rise, and should have another big run in him this year 12’s
The Galloping Bear Very good attitude I thought at Lingfield, and though a fair rise to defy, on that showing, worth a look 20’s
Achille As much as I like Commodore, my preference is for Achille from the Venetia yard. Wasn’t too bad at Chepstow, and I’d suspect he’s finally on a winning mark, and very high on the shortlist, and probably the one I’m closest to betting 25’s
The Two Amigos Ran well in this last year, and for all not done too much since, he’s way down the weights, and this just might be a long term plan 20’s
I’m sure Time To Get Up is the best of these by some way, and off 144 at 14’s, he’d be the bet all day. Not really they simple though, and I just worry that this isn’t the main plan. I’ll cover him if he goes.
I’m trying to convince myself not to bet Elegant Escape, and I’ve just a slight preference for Achille, with The Two Amigos not far behind.
Achille 25’s (cashed out)
I have bet The Galloping Bear at 20-1, but he is listed for The Eider, so I’m not completely certain that I’ll see him here.
Thankfully it’s a free bet in this race.
I’ve taken 10-1 Sam Brown, and I’ll be hoping for the weatherman to be right this week
Fortescue for me, liked the run last time at Haydock when he appeared to be running on.
Rain looks almost incessant for coming week and we all know Haydock usually gets its fair share of the wet stuff. One suspects it’ll either be heavy or just not on at all!Bristol De Mai is entered in two races at Haydock, and as I’m not the type of punter who’d be comfortable betting him for both races, I will just have to wait. I’ll definitely bet him if he does run here.
Looks like it’s going to be a proper war of attrition this one, could make for grim viewing on TV up that long Haydock run-in with the heavy going and loads of these like to get on with things, they’ll be coming home in slow motion.
On that basis I’m a bit concerned about the horses coming from the Peter Marsh as I feel it might have been too recent and was another tough Haydock race that could leave a mark. Same for Bristol De Mai, didn’t run badly at Lingfield but it was a bog and he had a tough battle to the end not that long ago. Robinsfirth did win this after finishing 2nd in the Peter Marsh but both races were run on much better ground.
I’m most drawn to Secret Reprieve and Enqarde but then so is the early market so nothing terribly original. The formers claims are obvious and he’s probably the correct favourite, the latter went off favourite last year for this and traded 1.5 in running, lots of evidence to point to him possibly not staying. I have an inkling they’d planned to go Tommy Whittle and then here last year but that got scuppered by him unseating in the Tommy Whittle so they had to get a run and a win into him in between at Ascot so he’d be high enough in the weights and three tough races in a couple of months was too much for him. He comes here a fresher horse this year and that could be crucial, I think if they were sure he didn’t stay they wouldn’t bother coming back. They ran him in the Scottish National as well they definitely view him as a stayer.
Saying all of that with the pace setup and his reputation Time To Get Up is a big price for this. If you said he maybe didn’t like the National fences and the trip was almost certainly too sharp you could easily forgive him that run. He’s not qualified for the National this year now which is both a positive and a negative, a negative because that almost certainly wasn’t the plan and he’s clearly had some issues but its a positive because there shouldn’t be any skulduggery going on trying to protect marks for another day. This is a decent pot and prior to Aintree he had so much going for him as a progressive stayer.
I’ll probably leave Secret Reprieve at the current odds and back the other two but I’d be much stronger on Enqarde.
I’m sure Lord Du Mesnil has been targeted at this race all season. I’m not overly convinced he truly warrants a rating of 150, but his Wetherby run on Boxing Day showed he can be competitive in the right conditions which he will certainly get on Saturday.
The Galloping Bear could be anything. I’ve missed the price, but I’m still happy to have a go.
Well, the big price on The Galloping Bear is gone, but Time To Get Up is still a big price in my opinion. I think you can condider the national fences a bit a different game, so I’ll forgive him that run. His win in the Midlands National has proved to be very strong form, so I think he is still on a fair mark. 3m5f on heavy ground should be fine.
Time to Get Up 9/1
“Heavy ground, marathon trip
Sounds like blaklions cup of tea”
I dunno. Poor little chap crawled over the last beaten over 50l when he ran in this race a few years ago- mind you he was facing the impossible task of trying to give Yala Enki a stone in a marathon bog slog.
I’ll try Mint Condition for an interest.
I am not far away from Haydock. The rain has been relentless all morning and now it has started to snow. This race is going to be a serious stamina test!
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