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Arazi put up one of the most sensational performances ever seen on a racecourse, and on his day — a phrase we hear a lot in connection with Hawk Wing — was an outstanding animal. Was he a champion? No. Hawk Wing should be seen in the same light.
Grrr… Arazi getting a bad press is ensured to wind me up….
He WAS a champion performer, if only as a 2yo. I take John Randall’s point about equine adolescence – but Arazi’s brilliance was not just shown on one occasion.  In 8 starts as a 2yo he was only beaten once (on his debut, finishing second) and after that beat off all challengers in Europe and America including in four Group Ones (all his wins were in black-type races).
Not wishing to knock Hawk Wing but the two horses cannot be placed in the same category with his record of 5 wins from 10 starts.  Arazi was a champion for a season (and then suffered from training difficulties that hampered the rest of his career).  Hawk Wing has run like a champion on maybe three occasions.
I am not giving Arazi a bad press — I thought he was fantastic (and better than Hawk Wing). My point was that despite his ability, he has not won recognition as a champion, because he did not produce enough top-level performances.
I am disappointed in HW performance in teh Queen Anne. However, judging his seventh behind the likes of Gateman as a true reflection of the horses form is probably less accurate than using his lockinge demolition.
Using yesterdays race is akin to saying that Carvills Hill wasnt as good as Toby Tobias and that Arazi was not as good as Brief Truce and Zaahi among others.
I dont know if i am on your list of those who have kept quiet after supporting teh horse after the lockinge, but if you read my posts I have reiterated a number of times that it was a special performance one that i hoped but wasnt sure he could repeat. I never compared him to BG, but a couple of times to Arazi and Carvills Hill. I think that was the tone of many of teh Hawk wing supporters on here. Does one run make him a champion a la brigadier gerard, probably not, but his run in the lockinge should be recognised as a special run. AS i said as part of those threads, it is very easy to be wise after the event of hypes being knocked. Most racing people like to recognise a good horse, some others loathe it, adn love to see a good horse lose. Id guess pretty much the same reaction would be here if he had won by a couple of lengths.
On his failiings last year, he finished second in two classics, over 1m and 1m4f, two other group ones, won an eclipse. He’s not all bad. Anyone one of those perfomances would have put him bang there yesterday.
If the race was run tomorrow, with both horses well. I dont think lameness was what beat him yesterday, but i would be reluctant to price the horse at more than 3/1.
He has something wrong with him that makes it madness to play big at odds on, but he has shown the talent that he has at Newbury and it would be folly to dismiss his chances in any one off race, even against the same field as yesterdays. Ian Bartlett was right in is immediate summation after the lockings when he said to retire him. But i definitely satnd behind what I said at the time – that the lockinge was one of the best performances that Ive seen on a racecourse. The form itself took a knock yesterday with WOW, but I stand behind that. <br>
Morgans.<br>I just felt at the time when I pointed out IMO, possibly the lockinge was very flatterering to HW. And that IMO only WOW actually was on a par with HW in the race, form going etc wise, that no matter what I said it was wrong. The point of a board is to discuss, things like this. But I was expressing my opinion.<br>I have said elsewhere on this board, that I did not think HW would win his next outing, and I have been proven right by susbsequent results. <br>He has obviously some faults be they "head" or "soundness". He has won from recollection nearly half of his races, 5/12 actually and was 2nd 5 times. The consisentcy is there, yet there is always one who has had him.<br>The tone of his supporters, was that this was a great horse, who no one should decry for any reason, nor should any one question the form of the lockinge. Which as you say took a knock yesterday.<br>Both supporters and detractors are somewhat puzzled, by this horse. I agree, how anyone could back HW at less than evens yesterday, I do not know. The race yesterday was quite fast, he had his favoured ground, the jockey and the fast pace that ballydoyle said was needed. <br>I just think, that there hve been better horses with proven form ie winning, who have not been given the merits they deserve, because of the hype surrounding HW. Rock of gibralter certainly springs to mind. <br>
Some used time to say that Cape Cross produced a better performance than HW in the lockinge and was therefore a better horse, which I will still say is rubbish.
I think it is so easy to decry Hawk Wing on the hype of last year, everyone knows he was disapointing, but the 3/1 quote was insulting to the horse, and i think that HW justified the home hype with the performance at Newbury. It showed what he is capable of in public. Had he repeated the thrashing of tillerman that he did at newbury yesterday, of course we would be reading a different story. I like when the hype comes to fruition. I dont tend to jump on badwagons but I hate those who beacuse of hype automatically go against a horse.
Galileo was brilliant at the derby and beat a proper horse in FL in teh KG. His runs over 10f have relegated his reputation. Dancing Brave – to the majority of analysts the best middle distance horse that we have seen in the last 20 years or so – beat shadari by an all out length in the KG, was beaten in the derby. Shergar was hammered before his three year old career was ended. Even holes can be picked in Nijinsky’s form. HAwk wing never proven himself to be mentioned with these horses, he hasnt the consistency, but his performance at Newbury should be respected
he was still 12l clear of Moon ballad over 12f last year, and was only beaten by stablemates in teh classics. Very few horses can be so good yet so infuriating over both distances.
Agian, I would take 3/1 about the horse in any race between 1m and 1.5m. He is simply too talented to be that price. Whether he produces is of course in the lap of the gods.
MorgansHarbour
Why hate people who go against a horse due to hype ?<br>I couldn’t have the horse yesterday purely because of the price but that doesn’t mean I don’t admire Hawkwing.
On his next start I may well be with the horse, particularly if he has been given a break and is returning in a smallish field at between 1m – 1m4f as long as he is around the 3/1 mark as you suggest.
For those of us who take gambling very seriously indeed then the prices are everything and what some people on this forum do not seem to understand is that it is sensible to be against ANY horse if the price is too short and with ANY horse if the price is too big. Nothing to do with hating Hawk Wing at all.
I hope this clarifies my position on this and yes I am still laughing about the manner of Dubai Destination’s win yesterday. :cool:
Morgan it was me who did the cape cross comparison, and I stand by it, both horses over, the same distance course etc. If one is faster than the other, then logically there is a comparison. Simply because, the rest of the field were in, differing positions, does not mean that the performance by HW was any better. <br>
ANALYSIS: Maybe a surprise result, but no arguing with it. The race was run at a true pace and CAPE CROSS made just about all the running to hold on bravely as Poteen came at him in the final furlong. Nor could there be any question of the others being caught napping as they were just about all hard at work 2f out and could not get to the winner. He had some smart form last year, as when he beat Among Men at Goodwood, but even so ran out of his skin here and set a track record into the bargain.Poteen came from some way off the pace and finished with real zest. He could not quite nail the winner but this was a most encouraging reappearance and there is a prize waiting for him.Centre Stalls also came late but not in time to trouble the first two. This was another good effort and augurs well for the rest of the year.Kahal was the only one who appeared to be going well enough to trouble the winner 2f out, but he was being pushed along and not getting there before the final furlong and gave every indication that the trip was beyond his best.Almushtarak came from off the pace to join the pursuers going to the last 2f, but further progress was beyond him, and Among Men, who was held up last weekend due to anabcess on a heel, faded away well before the final furlong after chasing the leaders until then. Obviously disappointing, if excusable in the circumstances.Air Express is capable of some notable displays on his day, but this was very much notone of them. He was being vigorously ridden with more than 2f to go and nothing happened.
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1 Cape Cross<br>made virtually all, clear 3f out, ridden over 2f out, ran on well
The analysis and in running for CC. he led from start to finish Just like HW in a faster time. <br>The difference? Cape cross was in there, as a pacemaker and won and was not a hype, HW was in there as a hype horse.<br>In any other sport, it is the longest, heaviest or fastest, our sport relies on pounds and how far away the runner up was and who it is and what it has done. At the end of the day IMO a horse has 100% to give throughout a race, and wether it is held for a final burst of speed or utilised, through out the race, they only have 100% to give. most races we get 80-90%, because of running problems jockey went too early, or late, the really exceptional races are when the maximum is used.<br>As I have said before, I use speed as a yardstick not what the other horses did etc.<br>CC’s time was faster than HW’s IMO a better performance<br>HW did not produce it yesterday, and I doubt he will again, simply because he will allways be taken on. <br>The supporters of HW all have their reasons for supporting the animal, the detractors are not out to get the horse nor it’s supporters, but one performance may be brilliant if it is the best ever, but HW’s was not IMO and he has not, shown that he belongs in MY top ten.<br>I do not go against hype if I think the horse is not a good one, but I do think that HW is an over hyped horse as others have agreed with me on this forum. <br>And when you talk about differing goings, I can quote you rainfall weather conditions, and windspeeds for the relevent CC HW lockinge days and weeks preceding and the there was not much difference in the going. The race prior to HW’s was fast as well.
Nick, I dont hate people who automatically oppose the hype. I understand that all punters look for an angle, and many have made money opposing hawk wing on that basis. best of luck to them.
I agree with you that a 1/5 shot may be value and then again a 50/1 may be short, and vice versa.
However, there is a slight difference between being an out and out punter, who only sees horse racing as the best method of using your intellegence to gamble money, and horse racing lover, who doesnt care as much about the punting aspect, but is more interested in seeing special performances from special horses.
I know not to bet with your heart, but then again, my father backed Mill House to beat Arkle and went down in my estimation because of it. Me, I delight in watching racing, I punt alongside this. basicially to win money on the back of something I adore.
Hawk wing is a horse that any one of us forumites would love to have. He is being knocked simply beacuse he has been hyped by the media. Fine, he was 3/1 to win the lockinge on the day.
can i give a few other exmaples, <br>Other hyped horses that were knocked include Danoli, Dawn Run, Lescargot, and the aforementioned galileo. (note the irish link) These horses like hawk wing achieved an awful lot but because they were overly hyped in the media, people like to underplay their achievements, and sneer.
It is as Dung has said a part of the PR machine that is Coolmore that aggrevates people. What i dont like is people who dont see past the PR machine, and judge teh horse on its merits.
Horses like One Man, Barton, and others are continually given hero status despite their failings.
hawk Wing has been crucified for one poor run yesterday( BC apart), as if that was all the horse could achieve. He is a group 1 winner at 3 ages, he finished second in 2 classics, 12 lengths clear of the 3rd in the derby, he was beaten a snot in anotehr group 1. He is a genuine top class racehorse. One of the few that we see each year. It is unfortunate that he hasnt the consistency of Brigadier Gerard, but when right, he would give Cape Cross a stone and a half. (IMO)
Again, what price would you go if he were to meet DD in three weeks time. Anything over 5/2 would be snapped up.
A very interesting response and I agree with your reasoning.
What price Hawk Wing in 3 weeks ?
I think he needs a longer break than that and the field size of of the utomost importance IMO therefore impossible for me to say.
I too would think that he needs a longer break. Maybe even 4-5 months. But the point is nobody, not even O’brien seems to know what he can produce from one day to the next. At his best, he takes a lot of catching despite his form figures. His derby run is more remarkeable each time i see the formbook. To think that teh majority sees him now as a natural miler.
I agree again ….. he would have been a clear cut winner of the Derby if it weren’t for High Chapparal and then the stupid notion that he doesn’t stay 1m4f wouldn’t have been able to gather such momentum.
I do however think that 1m2f would be his optimum distance and I am convinced that he is more than a bit of a rogue. Similar to Alex ‘hurricane’ Higgins or Jimmy White but without the drink problems ?!?!
Morgans harbour you said<br>
i think 4/6 is fantastic value for the Queen Anne. Just need to know if he runs in it or not. I cant believe some are saying that it was hype. The horse proved teh hype yesterday. Moon Ballad wouldnt see which way he went. I have some doubts about the form, but he belongs a class or two above WOW. He is only a handicapper when compared to the HW we saw on saturday. Something similar to that national stakes HW, and the 2000g HW.
<br>Did you take the price then Morgans? :biggrin:
MorgansHarbour
Nijinsky won nine of his eleven races, including: The Dewhurst Stakes, The 2000 Guineas, The Derby, The Irish Derby, The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and The St Leger. He came 2nd by a head in The Arc, and 2nd 1 length in The Champion Stakes. He held The Triple Crown.<br>Many of his victories were effortless, and I can never forget the final furlong of The KG when a motionless Lester looked repeatedly over his shoulder, mocking the struggling 1969 Derby winner, Blakeney. If, as you say, there are flaws in Nijinsky’s career, I take it you refer to his two runner-up positions. But if that is so, it would be interesting to hear of a few satisfactory racing careers. I can barely think of adequately disparaging remarks to describe HW’s abysmal history of failure, and he is not fit to be considered worthy of comparison to Nijinsky.<br>
You know, if you take all the high falutin talk and the smiley faces out of this thread, it’s incredibly reminiscent of your average after-timers thread on betfair fantasy island.
(Cue Ian to go off and drag some other tired old thread out of the archives to prove he actually told us all so before-time.)
I didn’t see anyone dragging the same threads out after Newbury.
I remember a discussion about the ‘true odds’ of Hawk Wing for the Eclipse last year – and a ton of people saying they’d never back the horse at any price, blah blah blah. They went quiet for a while. But now it seems they’re back.
So, some have won and lost, and some have lost and won, and no doubt many are like me, and have lost and lost! (oh Desert Deer – what was I thinking…)
Personally, I priced Hawk Wing at 4/6. That’s about halfway between the extremes of opinions – (unless people would have really laid him to thousands at better than evens).
That’s all he was, a good, if flawed, odds-on favourite to win a competitive Group 1 race.
You don’t need to get so excited about being right, nor so defensive about being wrong.
I’m not defending Hawk Wing blindly but it seems to me the anti-hype is even worse than the hype.
A couple of points –
1. Davestamf says – ‘I can barely think of adequately disparaging remarks to describe HW’s abysmal history of failure’.<br>You’re having a laugh surely! Group 1 winner at two, beating all aged course record in the process. Runner up in two classics over a mile and a mile and a half finishing 2nd to two real champions in the process. Last 9 races all Group 1 affairs, finishing in the first 2 in 7 of these 9 races. Only finished out of first two twice in whole career, once when racing on an unfamiliar surface in the US at the end of a long season and once (yesterday) when finishing lame.
Winner : Eclipse Stakes (Gr.1), Lockinge Stakes (Gr.1), National Stakes (Gr.1 beating course record), Futurity Stakes (Gr.2)
Runner Up : Derby Stakes (Gr1), 2,000 Guineas (Gr1), Irish Champion Stakes (Gr1), QEII Stakes (Gr.1), Railway Stakes (Gr.3)
Hardly an ‘abysmal history of failure’ by any stretch of the imagination. Reads like a very impressive CV to me.
2. Dungheap my friend – Cape Cross vs. Hawk Wing? See where you are coming from but the clock can be a misleading guide.
I think AOB’s remarks after the Lockinge when he spoke of his disappointment at having spoken so openly last season about how excited he was by the horse and thus fuelled the bandwagon were at the heart of things. People were expecting a world-beater and he has, in their eyes, disappointed.
However, in my view he’s ran some very fine races, both in victory and in defeat, and his Lockinge win was an indication of his ability. I sincerely hope that they get him right as it would be fascinating to see him appear again. If they don’t then he’ll go down in my book as a Group 1 performer who should be rated in the low to mid 130’s (using Timeform standard). Not an all time great on his overall record perhaps (although the Lockinge was one of the great performances) but an admirable and very talented animal nevertheless.
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