- This topic has 71 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 21 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Dungheap, for HW to return a handicap mark less than 130 for eaxmple, WOW would have had to run to 108. well over a stone worse than his QE run. The same format can be traced back to all other runners. Conservatively, HW ran into the very hgh 130s. Just wondering how yuo would have rated the race Dung.
dungheap
i can see one big cross in cape crosses write up  and that is the quality of opposition he faced  potheen managing to come second within 3l tells its own story of the race (and cape cross had to be ridden out to beat him)
i would have thought pulling 11l clear without being under maximum pressure  from a field containing numerous grp 1 and grp 2 winners  would be classed as a  positive rather than a negative especially as  the horses out with the washing cant have any excuses
i cant see why you keep on about hype hype  its a little  tiring when  the official handicapper  timeform  superform  globeform  all credit it as  a performence out the top draw surely they cant all be mistaken
 to see  top class horses strung out like that in the manner of a  folkstone chase on a winters day over a mile on good ground is not a sight you will see often in a grp 1 race
(Edited by prince regent at 1:43 pm on May 20, 2003)
An interesting fact is Kinane had ridden them all except Domedriver prior to the race, and this may have influenced the decision to go on.
Prince regent Morgans. <br>
I must admit I saw an amazing feat by a racehorse in the Juddemonte as the times below show.
1998 Juddmonte Cape Cross time 1m 35.17s fast by 3.17s <br>2003 juddmonte Hawk Wing time 1m 36.78s fast by 1.72s
I must belatedly put Cape crosses performance down as the best, since a bit was put in a horses mouth. There again he was not a HYPE horse, but a second string who ran his best one day.
So what was cape crosses final OR when he ran the same distance a second faster ie he would have come IN front of Hawk Wing. <br>Yet is dismissed by you all with excuses for all the other runners. (remember as I said my arguments are from a TIME perspective). Hawk wings time was fast, but not as fast as CC in the same race, distance and course, the only difference being Good and Good/Firm.<br>Remove hawk wing from the race, what would have the times been then?An awfully slow, poor renewal? <br>On WOW’s past form he should have been nearer to HW, why wasn’t he, did HW Burn him off, quite probably and therefore it was an excellent performance. But looking at HW’s record I am holding my fire, until he does it again. He will then gain my respect as a great horse.<br>As for hype, it used to be any of Cecils horses, that were going to win, with excuses when they did not, Godolphin had a period at the hype no.1, now it it is O’Brian. <br>Hawk Wing has been beaten, quite a few times now, this one superlative performance does not make him great.<br>
"the only difference was the ground good and the other good/firm"
Remove Hawk Wing and I will tell you what we would be doing. We would be saying how great a performance it was to thump a decent field. Many would be saying his run proved that his win against WOW was not a fluke. But the truth of the matter is Hawk Wing was there and he crushed him. And another thing……….Hawk Wing has actually beaten WOW twice now. Yes he lost to him in the QE2 but he beat him on Saturday AND in last years Guineas!! So on form you could say HW ran below form in the QE2 and the other two times they have met he has slaughter WOW.
So his form is in and out? <br>The sign of a great horse?<br>Will WOW win next time?<br>Will there be excuses for HW?<br>Was there this discussion before the race that Hawk Wing would trounce them all, where were the voices then, where were all the max bets, that this was the best horse you had all seen?<br>The acclaim for the performance yes yes yes, that he is the best or the best ever NOT YET he still has that to prove!!!
One question Dung, please answer.
Do you think that Cape Cross would beat Hawk Wing over a mile at Newbury mid may on good ground?
and Hawk Wing disappointed too many times to be wholly confident but i did have a decent size bet at 5/2. I was delighted with myself.
Its great to knock the perceived champions, never to get excited about horse racing performances, to wait for teh horse to disappoint with the told you so smugness, to laugh at those who you think youve proved wrong.
That is not why i like horse racing. Every so often a performance like Arazi, Carvills Hill, Hawk wing, Best mate comes along. Hawk WIng may never agian run to a mark like he did saturday, may never be considered a champion like Arazi and carvills Hill.
People who enjoy stunning performances are often bashed with handicap ratings, and even when this doesnt suit it will be time ratings, when this doesnt suit it will be wet grass, when this doesnt suit it will be all other horses ran about 18lbs below themselves.
How many world class performances did Sea Bird manage?
What rating would you give Dung, and how would you arrive at it.
Morgans,<br>I very much doubt CC would beat HW on Saturdays performance on good ground, simply because I believe that HW would have done even better. But the flip side remains the other way.<br>And I must admit to a certain enjoyment of playing the devils advocate. Which has brought out some excellent arguments, to the pros and cons of the performance of HW.<br>I am glad you made profit on the race, I did as well but from a different perspective, because on past form he has not always delivered the goods, in fact I dismissed him not caring wether he won or not, and so was able to enjoy the race, without the hindereance of wanting him to win.<br>There are some possible holes, in the performance, that he may or may prove or disprove, and I look forward eagerly to watching the results.<br>There is no smugness on my part, nor do I knock the performance on saturday.<br>One of my favourite horses was Halling, who everybody knocked all the way, and the joy when Bosra sham beat  him by all sundry was indeed a bitter pill for me. No excuses though he was beaten by a better horse on the day.<br>This horse Hawk Wing has been a conundrum to many, even his supporters, I hope he does become the greatest ever, because I will have seen it and it will buy me a drink in the approaching dotage.<br>I like the opinions, the heated debates, thats how we decide on these greats.<br>Incidently, no hanicap ratings here, I am a speed freak through and through.<br>Hawk Wing will always have his detractors, but of one thing we can be sure the performance on Saturday, we will see again.
(Edited by Dungheap at 4:03 pm on May 20, 2003)
Is this comparison of times a little over the top? After all, Kahyasi has run one of the quickest Derby times in history but he wouldn’t be anywhere near a vintage Epsom winner. Different ground conditions and a senseless argument IMHO.
<br>MH – ‘Would it cross you mind Rob that WOW ran the last furlong so slow because of the efforts put in the previous 7f. Every other horse must have ran well below form for HW to be just "above-average". I suppose its possible, but unlikely. My idea was that they simply couldnt go his pace.’
Hawk Wing didn’t go at a very fast pace. It was when he quickened that the others were outpaced (as happens in so many races when one front-runner gets its own way). Where Or When’s last furlong time happened because he was lacking fitness and drifted behind a fully fit horse. PR: I don’t know the exact figures of how far all the others ran below form but it was a long way. I’ll give you my reasons why for Where Or When:
He probably won’t be at his best until mid-August. He was in no way 100% fit. Hawk Wing reversed form with Where Or When by 13 lengths. On face value, that’s improvement of about 26lbs. Given the way Where Or When ran, I don’t believe that. The hard part is to work out how far below form he actually was. As for Olden Times and the others – they were quite simply stuffed. I’m sure there are a combination of factors that connections will use to describe their horses runs but I can’t explain it.
This is certain: Hawk Wing did not quicken in the final furlong. His last furlong time was indicative of a lone front-runner – controlling the pace, quickening some way out before slowing up again.
PR,"to beat a good grp2 horse by upwards of 19l is still some achievement." If that G2 horse ran to his form, Hawk Wing would have put in one of the greatest performances that any racehorse anywhere has ever managed. Let’s say that a G2 horse is rated 117, a conservative analysis of Hawk Wing’s rating would be 152. I’d give Hawk Wing a mid-130’s rating maximum for his Lockinge win. The form’s unreliable, making it hard to be certain about a mid-130’s rating anyhow. It remains to be seen if he can perform to that again.
Aidan, at no point could a struggling for fitness QEII winner and completely below form BC Mile winner keep up with Hawk Wing – that’s my take on it.
I’ve written stuff on the 2002 2000 Guineas before. Subsequent formlines show that if Hawk Wing ran on the same side of the track as Rock Of Gibraltar he would have been beaten about the same distance as he actually was. This might surprise you – last year (for the fourth time in succession) my Dad and I backed the second placed horse in the Derby. I was uneasy about going against High Chapparal as a selection but I thought that Hawk Wing’s 2000 Guineas performance was extraordinary. I actually gave him a higher rating than Rock Of Gibraltar. I was wrong (and still regret the way I rated the 2000 Guineas). Incidently, Moon Ballad was shattered over the Derby distance on sticky ground.
Right (this is a long post…sorry!) now to give some praise to Hawk Wing. He’s been second over 1m and 1m4f in Group One Classics. He was also second in the Irish Champion stakes over 10f. Adding to that, he was a very good winner of the G1 National stakes when two-years-olds and now a G1 winner of a mile race at four. Overall, a versatile horse with a mix of speed and stamina. Undoutedly Group One quality.
(Like with all short-priced favourites, I’ll be looking for the time to go against him. Maybe it’ll come, maybe it won’t. If the chance is there, I’ll take it.)
<br>dungheap,<br>i think as smithy points out you are a bit liberal with your use of times but on your last point whilst i think you will be proved wrong i do hope in a perverse way you are right in that we see many performences of the quality shown on saturday
robbo
as always from you a good posting
but some assumptions why when connections of wow were bullish about a good run (the jockey on ml for example) would he be so far behind hw on terms of fitness
may i remind you after a long season and some hard races over a trip to far he suffered the virus which probably accounted for some of his effort behind wow in the qe11 he had in the 2000 gns finished in front of wow. i also find it hard to believe it takes t mills nearly 4 months longer to get wow fit as u suggest.
i would love to hear excuses for the beaten horses and reasons why they will reverse the form. very quiet and nothing forthcoming from connections so far what possible excuses can they have ?? they cant use the ground trip or track or fitness.
and finally robbo this myth (which u are not the only one to repeat) that the finishing effort in the 2000 gns was some sort of mirage and that no matter where he was drawn the result would have been the same is wrong check the sectional times they concur with the fact that if they were drawn on the same side or perhaps spencer had started his run a tad sooner he would have beaten rog
now robbo check hw record for last year it always showed he was capable of some big runs and the only question for this year was would there be any lasting effects from his efforts in the derby or more importantly from having the virus
i think he awnsered them quite emphatically
oh and u mention a mid 130 rating well he is on 137<br> this puts him 2nd t0 dancing brave since 1986 and 2nd to el gran senor in 1984 for mile ratings
so perhaps a 137+ would be accurate
which is not bad at all is it ???????
With Hawk Wing rated 137 and Rovk of Gibraltar 130 I believe, I know I’d rather back Rock of Gibraltar getting seven pounds from his former stablemate.
How do you know Hawk Wing was fully fity Rob? All the Ballydoyle horses have been improving for their intial run and I expect him to do the same. Mills on the TV before the race never suggested that fitness would beat WOW…….in fact he was so bullish(cocky in some ways) that you began to wonder was he in danger of having egg on his face if it lost. In the end he had more than one egg!!
I listened to Hawk Wing and watched Funny Cide and thought what two extraordinary performances on the same day. FC also won by about 10 lengths in a classic! The significance of his performance has not sunk in yet. And for a change he is owned by a bunch of ordinary guys. Finally he is gelded so hopefully we will see him next year and after.
actually ben, I find the gallop them into submission method so often seen in the states is becoming more popular here. Un-uniformed tracks and uphill/stiff finishes to blame for that style not taking hold earlier. You need the right piece of equipment though. Desert Deer at SAndown and HAwk WIng proved that it can be done. I think this type of tactics can lead to bigger winning margins as horses get tired earlier in the race.
<br>possibly from being given to much to do sulamani had used up to much energy in getting a position.
i suppose with all the critiscism of the jockey and hold up horses can look unlucky when they are not it may be he is not as fast as he looks
an interesting horse for this year though especially on quick ground
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.