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Do you really think that Palmer places all the bets he lists in his column TDK?
Not sure about the Scoop 6 winners as good publicity for the Tote – a pro punter and a well connected syndicate had 3 of the tickets.
Findlay is a turnover punter. By his own admission his edge after commision on BF is only about 6%. Thats huge profit annually if the amounts wagered are big enough. He wouldnt have a hope of getting matched at woking mens prices with the amounts he bets, he also admits to being a confidence punter, both good reasons to stay in the short end of the market imo.
Taking the 4/7 double as an example today and investing 70 grand to win 40, once a week for a year with a 6% return gives a profit of almost 220 grand annually….. doesnt seem like such bad value to me.
It takes big money to make big money and the exchanges are all about turnover, Harry has that much sussed. He’s living the dream and good luck to him!
Taking the 4/7 double as an example today and investing 70 grand to win 40, once a week for a year with a 6% return gives a profit of almost 220 grand annually….. doesnt seem like such bad value to me.
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Where is the 6% value you assume though? Just looked like 2 blindingly obvious jollies which were priced correctly to me…
Im not assuming anything TDK. Thats Findlays publicly stated edge, about 6% annually. 6% of £70000 x 52 weeks = £218400. The short term merits of the value of one of those bets on any one individual week is not the point I’m making.
He reminds of many others the likes of Terry Ramsden (?) Big winners big losers and all end up skint
Forum member Tooting has, for the last couple of months, been looking at the type of short-priced bet that Harry Findlay does – he calls them barking bets and his method is
A research fund based on the wisdom of Harry Findlay.
Started April 2008.
Playing the shorties.
£2000 starting bank
Maximum price 1.66
Bets at 10% of fund.
Half profits banked weekly and staking rebased.
Exchanges only used.
Reviewed weekly.So far he has made a profit of €1,275 since Apr-08
Not a fair comparison- Ramsden made his money in the City and lost in on the racecourse.
I’ve always thought that the market was more efficient at the front end CR- for precisely the reason that most liquidity and hence most attention is focused there. I’d take some persuading that he has a 6% edge backing odds-on shots on BF- If it’s that easy why isn’t everyone doing it?I played ‘The Findlay Game’ late this summer and it is definitely one that seems to be easier to play in.
How I did it though is I started off with a £25 bank all on a 4/7 shot (Katiyra at the Curragh) and kept rolling over my winnings. So £39.25 would go onto the next odds on pick etc.
I admit though, I did start to bottle out when the total got a little high and ended on around £275 I think. Realistically, thats not too bad at all and is easy money.
To put it into perspective….
4/7 Katiyra @ Curragh
1/3 Septimus @ Irish Leger
4/9 Rainbow View @ Fillies Mile
Evens Big Brown @ His Last Race at Belmont
1/2 Curlin @ Gold Cup Meeting
5/4 New Approach @ Champion Stakes Meeting£25 constantly rolling over here (which was my plan – I ended at Curlin) wouldve won £507
Imagine if that was rolled over to Kauto @ Down Royal and say you added in The Duke when it seemed nothing could really beat him at the King George meet you’d now be on £1,300 roughly.
It’s a long term bet but it’s one that realistically is very profitible if you dont get greedy and dump it on any old odds on shot (Mastercraftsman at the tail end of the season for example or *ankable in his Goowood Grade 3 odds on race this season)
I’m sure there will be a few people going ‘Well thats just pointless’ or ‘Too much risk’ but getting 52x your stake back for a seemingly faultless bet is most definitely worth it if you can hold your nerve with it.
The difference between this and a normal accumulator is you get to see how much youre winning after every leg and have the option to continue
Deal or no Deal? Now wheres that Noel Edmonds fellow..
Dan
Not a fair comparison- Ramsden made his money in the City and lost in on the racecourse.
I’ve always thought that the market was more efficient at the front end CR- for precisely the reason that most liquidity and hence most attention is focused there. I’d take some persuading that he has a 6% edge backing odds-on shots on BF- If it’s that easy why isn’t everyone doing it?The BF market is equally efficent across all price ranges carvills. You back any BFSP blindly, whether its a 50.0 or 1.5 and over time you’ll lose the same amount of money ie. your comission. There is no difference financially between taking both prices over the longer term, however the difference in strike rate and thus confidence is massive. Like yourself, Findlay forms an opinion, converts it to a price and piles in when he can get that price. In the races he plays in I’d say its his money that shortens prices in the first place and I’d imagine most of his money is on long before the market reaches final efficency.
One thing i noticed and indeed another person who i know is that Harry Findlay seemed to be holding something back on Saturday morning when he was asked about how Denman was.
One thing i noticed and indeed another person who i know is that Harry Findlay seemed to be holding something back on Saturday morning when he was asked about how Denman was.
How do you mean?
I missed this interview
- Total Posts 17716
One thing i noticed and indeed another person who i know is that Harry Findlay seemed to be holding something back on Saturday morning when he was asked about how Denman was.
Please spill the beans Neil, I have a bet on with my mate who reckons Denmans going to be better then ever and land more group races then Kauto. So far im 1-0 up.
Not a fair comparison- Ramsden made his money in the City and lost in on the racecourse.
I’ve always thought that the market was more efficient at the front end CR- for precisely the reason that most liquidity and hence most attention is focused there. I’d take some persuading that he has a 6% edge backing odds-on shots on BF- If it’s that easy why isn’t everyone doing it?Carvills
Whilst not disagreeing with your overall synoposis of Findlay’s punting, favourite/longshot bias theory dispels your view that the market is more effiecient at the front end of the market.
“I’m sure there will be a few people going ‘Well thats just pointless’ or ‘Too much risk’ but getting 52x your stake back for a seemingly faultless bet is most definitely worth it if you can hold your nerve with it.”
Not ‘seemingly faultless’ at all. Very fault-ful I’d say.
I thought an earlier thread on here actually pegged HF’s profit at 2% after commission? That sounds more believable.
My personal research fund (already kindly namechecked earlier) is currently showing 4% profit – which given my commission levels, makes some sort of sense.
As the old-timers on here know, I was a "pricewise" style value punter on the horses for many years and went full-time on the back of it. Then I found the market changed entirely (betfair driven) and had a terrible couple of years. Personally I found I’d lost my edge on the purely tissue-driven betting gingertipster evangelises about. On horses anyway.
What I did find was that there was juice at the front-end of the market in certain circumstances. (I believe Apracing had a similar conversion). As ratpack says "favourite-longshot bias" explains some of it; a very competitive market explains some more of it; the place liabilities of each way bets explain a bit more; and I’d could add a few more reasons, each increasingly exotic or fanciful.
This has come as quite a profound shock to me, and required a remarkable turnaround in my betting approach. But I was facing having to return to corporate life on the back of my over persistence on a methodology that was no longer working for me. So I’m personally quite grateful I was at least intrigued enough by Harry’s pontifications to check it out for myself..
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