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I absolutely love AVD, he made Derby Day LY a very special day for me and I’ve followed him since. I was gutted at the breeders cup as I thought he would’ve won and not fit LTO in the CC he still ran really well. However he is super short here and I’m not sure Ascot is his track. His strength is momentum, he builds up and up and gets rolling and rolling. Ascot is not really that sort of track where he can do that. UNLESS they ride him differently and front run. Ascot finish is short in comparison to Epsom, Lingfield and Newmarket. If he’s not in a good position for this coming into the Ascot turn he’ll likely get done by something a little more speedy. It’s a real quandary for me as I’ve backed him in every race since before Lingfield but right now he is super short in that doubt. Will have a study of the race this week and see what I think can beat him but currently he is vulnerable for me at these prices
I’m with Elarqam too Hein
He’s my favourite son of Frankel and with Attraction as his mum and Mark Johnston’s yard flying 9/2 looks a very generous price
His last run where he rallied and just failed to catch Lord North by the shortest of heads will have put him just right for victory here..
Elarqam 9/2 WinBest of luck Frenchy with AVD if he owes you nothing you have to follow him even if you feel the track is not ideal but I would have a saver in the race too.
best of luck.. Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’m afraid I will follow him wherever he goes this year Hein same goes for Ghaiyyath.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...You are making me nervous about my nap now Frenchy! I recognise the short straight at Ascot is not ideal but I still think the race is his if he runs to his best.
Defoe would be a huge threat if back to his best but that was a lame effort at Newmarket last time.
Elarqam is clearly capable but he strikes me as one of those frustrating horses who always finds a way to lose. I really do not know what to make of his effort at Haydock.
Agree Cork, very lame effort from Defoe last time, but he’s bounced back before, so I’ll stick with him if he’s declared.
Actually tempted by the 8’s, but I’m as well waiting.
I’ve had a good look through the race and there actually doesn’t appear to be much that could beat AVD. Elarqam hasn’t even raced over 12F before, which is a big negative on the trends and hard to believe at 5 he’s going to improve for the step up. So it’s between AVD and Defoe and Defoe was awful last time out. Maybe one to watch the market as Defoe is a good price now in possibly a two horse race. Will have a look Friday morning and probably back both!
AVD at 3/1 against these will do me
Gonna be a tough task for elarqam to try 12f for the first time on a stiff track on soft ground
I was happy to get the 8’s in the end for Defoe, and that’ll do for me.
Has to put last run behind him, but I’m sure he can.
Defoe 8’s
Just three words…
COME ON ELARQAM Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Andrew Balding’s stable is going well at the moment and I think he may well add another
winner with Morando. Ran well when just pegged back by Technician in the Geoffrey Freer,
but it was his run last time out at Ascot that caught the eye. He looked like the winner
some way out, but when he hit the front 1f out he ran away from them. He’s obviously in
good form and he’s one that will handle the ground. 7/1 with Hills looks big.If Hamish is back to his form of his York win, where he bolted up last
October, he won’t be far away. I might do a saver at 15/2Morando is my biggest fancy of the day. I think 7-1 is a great price for him with the recent rain.
Defoe back on an easier surface with Roger Varian in great form this week is an EW steal I think. Haven’t back AVD yet, but 3/1 is very tempting. I’m not sure the ground beat him int he King George personally, he just ran completely flat after the derby probably, so I’m hoping he can run. I’ll be against Elarqam anyway, lets see!
Defoe 7/1 EW
AVD 3/1 PossiblyMight even do AVD – Defoe straight forecast
I still think AVD is the one to beat. The 3/1 looks very fair to me.
Despite my earlier doubts about Defoe I have had a saver on him after all! I am sure he ran a bit flat on his first start last season as well. He is proven on the course and the stable is flying.
Jac
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