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This thread is for anyone with any bets on the handicaps at festival
One man who does well in these is Gordon Elliott i like one of his horse
CARLITO BRIGANTE 12/1 Centeanary novices
Already a CD winner and won over fences at track too won a Coral Cup
would not shock me if he turns up here and be a single price on day.ITS A GIMMIE 20/1 County hurdle
Ran a cracker when behind Raya Star at Ascot not been sighted since so i think he could be saved for a handicap at festvial this be right race for him.
NOBLE PRINCE 25/1 Coral cup
Another CD won jewson he not fired since ran awful at Aintree would not shock me if he ran over hurdles.
Any handicap bets from you guys.
Think that Last Shadow of Jonjo’s could be one for the Fred Winter. 25s with Stan J. Speculative, but watch his only run so far, I think they’re getting him handicapped….
Carlito Brigante is currently on a very winnable mark of 137. He should scoot up off that.
I like Petit Robin for the Grand Annual too. What would his chase mark be after such a lay off? Obviously has done well over hurdles this year, but his chase mark must be a lot lower than his current hurdles rating…
I don’t know where the bookies get their prices from for the handicaps, there’s no entries, obviously no weights, most of these beasts won’t even have been mentioned as festival bound, but yet they are priced up! Hills have something like 20 horses at 20/1 or under for the County! Bookies bonanza.
It’s good fun trying to pick one out, but definately not a time to be laying out more than a bit of shrapnel.
Looking forward to watching Utopie Des Bordes tomorrow over hurdles. Can’t help thinking it might be aimed at Cheltenham judging by it’s defeat of Fago at Auteuil.
When are the weights coming out? I’ve a few Irish horses i’m interested in, mainly from the Elliott and Martin yards but them being who they are i could see ridiculous views being shown by the british handicapper
With the top weight in the festival chase normally running from a mark in the high 150s it’s no surprise that this race is often won by a horse with a rating around 142 as they tend to end up with ideal racing weights of about 10-10.
With JPs good record in the race and Cantlow’s mark of 142 you can see why he’s vying for ante post favouritism.
Still a novice he needs to brush up on his jumping but he’s looked better the further he has gone over fences and his 3rd in the Pertemps final at last years festival proves his liking for the conditions and what was especially impressive was the way he put himself into contention in the latter stages.
He could end up taking in the novice chase over half mile shorter instead, although with his current mark he’d probably end up with top weight but to mitigate the risk somewhat he can be backed with Bet Victor’s NRFB offer as they’re one of the firms offering the best priced 12/1.
Given his connections his odds could tumble at any point should he be committed to the race.
Lee
With the top weight in the festival chase normally running from a mark in the high 150s it’s no surprise that this race is often won by a horse with a rating around 142 as they tend to end up with ideal racing weights of about 10-10.
With JPs good record in the race and Cantlow’s mark of 142 you can see why he’s vying for ante post favouritism.
Still a novice he needs to brush up on his jumping but he’s looked better the further he has gone over fences and his 3rd in the Pertemps final at last years festival proves his liking for the conditions and what was especially impressive was the way he put himself into contention in the latter stages.
He could end up taking in the novice chase over half mile shorter instead, although with his current mark he’d probably end up with top weight but to mitigate the risk somewhat he can be backed with Bet Victor’s NRFB offer as they’re one of the firms offering the best priced 12/1.
Given his connections his odds could tumble at any point should he be committed to the race.
Lee
I have him for the centenary but I think its a 0=140 and he’s taken down from odds checker. Could be a Wichita Linesman then.
I have him for the centenary but I think its a 0=140 and he’s taken down from odds checker. Could be a Wichita Linesman then.
Actually you’re right Shack, it does have a ceiling of 140 – even though Hunt Ball won it off 142 last year (carrying 12 st) so he must have had a penalty.
Article from 7th Jan before his last win
Third in the Pertemps Final over hurdles last March, Paul Webber’s inmate was bought by JP McManus in October.
After finishing second on his first two starts over fences, he opened his account with a victory at Plumpton,
which also qualifies him for a hefty bonus if he wins a chase at the Festival
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"We’re stepping him up a little bit in trip," said Webber.
"We’ve been trying to find a stepping stone that doesn’t ask him too many questions and hopefully this is it. We don’t want to throw him in at the deep end just yet.
"As for what his eventual target might be, that will be up up to Frank Berry (McManus’ racing manager) and the boys to decide a plan nearer the time.
"We’re just trying to get some experience while we can and with the ground being as it is, it’s a case of trying not to bottom him too soon.
"
The idea of running him over two miles earlier in the season was just to sharpen up his jumping and hopefully it’s worked
."
and stats for the race (courtesy of ATR)
Positives
Officially rated under 144
Last-time-out winners
Novices
The first four in the betting
Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Jonjo O’Neill
Owned by J P McManus
Placed at the Festival beforeNegatives
Officially rated 150+
Aged 11 or older
Trained by Paul NichollsThe fact that he’s trained by Paul Webber (who is 0-24 at the festival) is the biggest worry but everything else looks in place for this strong travelling sort and I’ve just had my first ever ante post bet on one of the festival handicaps @ 12s (NRFB).
Lee
I have him for the centenary but I think its a 0=140 and he’s taken down from odds checker. Could be a Wichita Linesman then.
Actually you’re right Shack, it does have a ceiling of 140 – even though Hunt Ball won it off 142 last year (carrying 12 st) so he must have had a penalty.
The fact that he’s trained by Paul Webber (who is 0-24 at the festival) is the biggest worry but everything else looks in place for this strong travelling sort and I’ve just had my first ever ante post bet on one of the festival handicaps @ 12s (NRFB).
Lee
Nice work Lee. Webber is a worry as a trainer, but hopefully some of JPs advisors will help him along the way!
I backed him for a EW on the Tote in the Pertemps last year – minutes before the off he was a CRAZY price – something like 100 win and 25 place. Anyway, he looked for any money the winner before the last then gave way. Still paid 10 or 11 i think for a place. And here’s a tale – this guy came up to me and asked to borrow my paper, shook his head looking confused and asked for an outsider for a place. So i gave him Cantlow. Saw him immediately after the race collecting said winnings at the same Tote Window – he’d only gone and had £50 on it having no knowledge at all and relying on a tip from a stranger!! Offered me a pint, but typical I was holding a full one so politely declined!!I like the look of Edeymi in the Coral cup.Does have a couple of engagements but I do think this will be the target. 25s with BETFRED and Totesport is massive imo, and still available
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