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I am going to say that orangefleece got me thinking about handicap systems when he became, shall we say, a little down hearted with the one he was testing out.
What I want from a system is for it to be quick and easy to work my selections.
I also want it to cross over from Flat to Jumps.
I WISH for a good strike rate and also WISH for a profit.
Logic tells me a high or good strike rate will never be had from handicap systems (but that will never stop me trying).
Today is a rainy day and my guess is there will be some changes in the Going which provokes question number one: –
Do light weights do better when the ground is softer/heavy? My guess is possibly yes but a lot will be down to pedigree and therefore to keep things simple the pedigree will simply have to be ignored and it is therefore assumed for this excersise “light weights do best”.
All of this brings me to the point of a system I have dug out which may be of some help.
Rules: –
If the top weight is top rated it again must be assumed it is the best horse and most likely to win or play a very big part in the race outcome and so this race will be swerved.
Races should have a minimum of 8 runners. I think it can be concluded the author of the system is looking to bet each way or play the exchanges place market.
Flat races only, check and note the runners with a weight of 8st 7lb downwards only.
NH races only, check and note those with a weight of 10st 8lb or less.
The form line should show a 1st or 2nd finish within the last six races, otherwise cross them out.
Any selection must have at least two runs in the current season, if not, bin them!
The last race must be within 30 days (4 weeks) I find this a confusing rule which is always included within systems. 30 days is good but 31 is bad, IMO this is crap and one of the best compromises I read was for it previous race to be within the currect or previous calender month. It’s up to you, the rule is there to be kept or bent.
Now if there is more than one possible selection go for the one at the lowest weight.
Or if you want to and the prices are good enough, why not Dutch them?????
Billy's Outback Shack
Having just had a quick look at today’s race cards I was hoping to find a selection or two which qualified at Yarmouth, knowing the ground is easy but all to no avail.
Not to be deterred I checked to see how the system fared at the othere meetings despite goings of G-F (ho-hum)
Brighton 3.30 INQUISITRESS 40/1
LOST
– No surprise at bthis price.
Pontefract 4.10 KING OF SWORDS 4/1
Won 100/30
& DARCY’S PRIDE 18/1 Non Runner
Pontefract 4.40 DESERT HUNTER 9/2 Non Runner
Inquisitress and Darcy’s Pride, what a double that would be, daydreaming again
Billy's Outback Shack
August 5
It just not feel right that Haydock today is SOFT (HEAVY in places), so much for the English summer.
A small profit could have been made yesterday but my intent has been to look for a system when the ground for Ratings goes
bad!
Looking at the Haydock card I can only find one selection in the 3.40 race.
CHRISTMAS LIGHT, there are 3 possibles I could not separate and therefore the lowest weighted horse becomes the choice but with 18/1 available I think I will continue to watch.
Billy's Outback Shack
i can’t see this system working billion , if the ground is heavy then all the horses are affected the same i would have thought no matter how much weight they are carrying that particular race .
just ran it through the system on adrianmassey.com on heavy ground in handicaps and there’s 3% difference in the favour of horses 8lb and higher than the average weight compared to horses 8lb and lower than the average weight carried in the race.
and running it through the system with the horse carrying the average weight shows 1% lower than the higher weighted horses.Hi
chuckypud
, thanks for your input.
It is an old paper system which has been in my folder and I have never tried out and if your figures are correct my theory is blown away.
A lot of my selections have in the past been tipster based, again the theory is they should know more about the game than I do but I could never get it just so, always there was a slow loss and how I hate losing.
Ratings such as RPR, Formcast (Mail) even Massey etc. also had some fascination and they do work but not all of the time and I have noticed the failure rate increases with the rain/Soft & heavy going.
I have no idea if lightweights do better when the ground conditions turn softer just a niggly feeling in the back of my mind that they should.
We do know some horses, known as the mud-larks love it and some simply hate it but with less to carry I would have thought it made life easier even for those that struggle in the mud.
That is the theory.
Firm or heavy it is a system, it may have been proven whatever the ground and having dug the thing out I guess I will have to keep check on it and see if the ground is a factor or not.
Billy's Outback Shack
Following
chuckypud
‘s revelation that the ground conditions will make little or no difference to the race outcome it can only be angled towards the lightweights.
And so there are a couple of extra selections at other meetings: –
Yarmouth 4.20 WAVETREE BOUNTY 6/1 2f
LOST
Sandown 7.20 CATCHANOVA 5/1 3f
Placed 3rd
(prices taken from Odds Checker and certainly subject to change)
Billy's Outback Shack
hey billion , take no notice of my first figures as i did them incorrectly and although they was a slight difference between carrying weight and not so , the search was odds related . done it again just over hurdles and chases but was unable to include the going , but the figures for handicap chases say if a horse carries 11 lb 12lb 13lb etc less than the average weight, returns on sp are 116% compared to 85% return on sp for horses carrying 9lb or greater than the average weight
Friday August 6
All the more info the better
chuckypud
, thanks.
I am chasing back to the Badlands this morning and not much time to spare but have looked at the Flat racing today (missed the NH) and have a feeling there is a winner hidden here somewhere.
Brighton 4.00 DVINSKY
2nd 8/1
Haydock 8.00 BEAT THE SHOWER (Norton riding at 8st 6lb)
WON 9/2
Musselburgh 7.35 WICKED WILMA
3rd 20/1
Musselburgh 8.40 LIGHT THE CITY.
LOST
Billy's Outback Shack
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