March 14, 2007 at 15:00 #1827
wonder if anyone can help once read a peace in a racing magazine it was a way to handicap the prize money think this is how it went 10,000 pound race with ten runners winner gets alloted 100 as vdw 2nd=100 divided by 10 multiplyed by 9=90 all the way down the race giving a class rating as vdw hope to start this on the flat has anyone done anything similar? formathMarch 18, 2007 at 17:45 #62765robnorthParticipant
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I’ve have used similar ratings figures in the past. I used finishing position as a percentage of the field rather than % for places.
In a 5-runner race worth Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£8000 the ratings would be as follows.
1st – 80<br>2nd – 64 (80% of value)<br>3rd – 48<br>4th – 32<br>5th – 16
Formula is (V/100) x ((R-P+1)/R) where V = race value, R<br>=No. of runners and P=finishing position.
In a 10 runner race you would decrease by 10% of the value per finishing position. Non finishers score 0. I marked winners with a + indicating that they could conceivably score better (you can only beat what’s there), although a win must naturally be taken on it’s merits.
It’s rather rough and ready but can give a decent guide where horses are moving from class to class.
Rate a horse’s last three races and look for a horse with 2 class figures bigger than any other runner.
I did write an article for Smartsig on the method, but it went missing when I ditched my old computer.
(Edited by robnorth at 6:47 pm on Mar. 18, 2007)March 18, 2007 at 18:09 #62767
read your article and thought it would help with my vdw assesment lost my smart sig got time on my hands want to stop watching crap on tv have done speed figs in the past[wont do that again]willing to put in a few hours a week for just a wee bit profit and enjoyment use it along with racing post speed and handicap ratings would you recomendMarch 18, 2007 at 18:17 #62768
would you also use a cut of point say half a length per furlong or would you let class tell would like to develope this in the flat seasonMarch 18, 2007 at 20:11 #62772PompeteMember
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Class tells – did you do your own speed ratings and if so what method, what’s the reason for not doing them again?
Just interested.March 18, 2007 at 20:34 #62773
used the solidus method to time consuming i,ve said i,ll put the book away for my retirement you can pay for these speed figs also was unsure on how to use them to best advantage worked shifts and in high summer not enough hours in the day to busy number crunching not enough time race analysing thats why i went back to vdwApril 21, 2007 at 20:06 #62775twinoaksParticipant
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I’ve being toying with the idea of starting to use VDW again.<br>Been looking at different systems an methods but always come back to thinking that the good old Dutchman’s ideas are the way to go.<br>I have tried software that seems to have it’s base set on VDW workings.<br>The only thing that puts me off is having the time,as I work nights an so time is in short supply.<br>I brought a DOS based software program that helps you to form your own systems. Not being to technically minded on how to work it out.The program is called FormFinder by First Post Racing only wish I knew how to use it.<br>The ratings I used with VDW are a speed rating an Handicap one.As for form rating. I found a great little table in an old systems (1950’s)book that was a system in it’s own right.The list is very long but here is a snippet.
111 = 120<br>112 = 116<br>113 = 104
221 = 112 <br>231 = 98<br>241 = 76
312 = 96<br>313 = 72<br>314 = 46
412 = 60<br>413 = 52<br>414 = 24
At the end of the day it’s all down to how you feel using a method or system that feels right for you.Plus of course it will give you enough winners that put you in profit.
Look forward to any thoughts you guys have.
<br>April 22, 2007 at 15:14 #62776
just my thoughts twinoaks but dont think that vdw would use a handicap rating just a speed fig parts of his books dedicated to speed figs but nothing to handicap ratings work shiftslike yourself so cant dedicate all my time to racing so vdw suits (bambi d,lorme) on saturday they are there if you take some time to lookApril 23, 2007 at 07:42 #62777carlisleMember
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I have done a 180 turn, with regard to race analysis. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I used try to produce 8 ratings.
1. Going<br>2. Distance<br>3. Course<br>4. Speed Rating Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â (automated Solidus)<br>5. Recent Form<br>6. Class/Ability<br>7. Trainer<br>8. Jockey
These figures were combined to produce an overall rating that was then converted into a price.
(I will try to post an image, later on)<br>http://www.badongo.com/pic/594616
I came to realise that horse racing data isn’t reliable enough to stand up to this type of rigour.
The two main questions are can the horse face up to the challenge of the race and does the trainer want the horse to win?
I now favour a vdw/ranking form of analysis. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I am currently trying to write some programming code.
ps does anyone know the best way to post images?
(Edited by carlisle at 8:50 pm on April 23, 2007)April 23, 2007 at 13:49 #62778
what did you find most helpful solidus lto carlisle or whatApril 23, 2007 at 15:49 #62779twinoaksParticipant
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Carlisle:- Just looked at your image,looks a bit complex with all the colours.I’m not sure how you loaded it to your link.<br>I go along with VDW class & ability rating.
I will send you a copy of one of my workings that I use to work it out.It will be later in the week.The three day meeting at Perth will be great for VDW way.As the class an value of the races higher.
What you trying to program? is it your way of working out the VDW method?
Kevin<br>April 23, 2007 at 17:29 #62780carlisleMember
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yes I am working on some VDW code, my old method was a bit too involved. The main aim I have is to enable three or four contenders to bubble to the surface. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â If there are five or six then it’s probably a no bet race.
Top rated VDW selections are unlikely to be profitable in the long run, but will provide a good and easy handle on any race.
class tells I am still a big Solidus rating fan, they have to be quite recent and CD&Going relevent.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>April 23, 2007 at 18:44 #62781
carlislel like to take days since last ran of the lto projected rating to see what itgives me see if its stilltop rated or what marrys in with binghams peak fittnessApril 23, 2007 at 19:05 #62782dave jayMember
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I like the Solidus software too carlisle .. :cool:April 23, 2007 at 19:28 #62783dave jayMember
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Rob .. I remember that article about assessing racing data like that .. I didn’t realise that it was you who had written it.
The calculation (R-P+1)/R) is a very powerful one IMO, I wrote a program years ago myself (after reading that article) to use it in a forecasting tool that I was working on at the time. It works well with almost all prediction techniques.
Thanks for sharing it with us.
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