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Hi everybody
A pretty naff renewal but intriguing nonetheless.
Hasty Prince seems more like an end of season horse these days and Royal Shakespeare is the most consistant horse ever but can only win poor events. Pablo Du Charmil is certainly the most unexposed in the line up and has the capacity to improve but he could find the trip on good ground a little too sharp. Saintsaire will be fit from his victorious charity race exploits and conditions are right up his street. In spite of his lapse in form last backend, he looks to have everything going for him which is why I make him chief danger to my selection and ante post punt for the Champion Chase…
<b>Fair Along</b>
Red hot form on the flat leaves him more than ready for this. The stable are in good nick and his front running tactics (in spite of Pipe’s horse) should serve him well in this small field. He goes well in the autumn and his beating of MWDS last December is as good as any novice form form last term. On good ground, he should be well up to the task of defying a rating of 154 if he’s to emerge as a leading contender for March’s showpiece.I think Fair Along is the one to beat but I will not be backing him odds on.
I am going to have a little each way dabble on Pablo Du Charmil, I think 13/2 is pretty generous.
With a 9l 3rd to Twist Magic and an easy victory over Trouble At Bay in the book, Royal Shakespeare looks a big price at 10s. He’s an awkward bugger it has to be said, but if he turns up in the right mind he can go close (7l 2nd to Lord Henry isn’t bad form).
If Fair Along can lose his customary big blunder, i think it will go along way to help him dominate the 2m division this time round.
Fair Along by long way here.
I will be most surprised if Fair Along fails to win this race.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Fair Along has to be the favourite, but on form from Twist Magic’s race at Aintree, Royal Shakespeare is handicapped to beat him about 7l. I’ll be begrudged to let the later go at 12s.
Fair Along has to win today if he has any aspirations of Champion Chase glory.
The Pipe horse has done all its winning at a moderate level, and failed to shine when stepped up to this sort of class. Saintsaire has failed to live up to expectation although looking through its form, often runs its best race first time out. Hasty Prince isn’t getting any younger and Royal Shakespeare often runs decent races without winning.
Fair Along to win, Saintsaire the danger.
Fair Along out to 11-8 on Betfair and I wouldn’t take that for him to place.
Not sure about the above Mounty, but he does look a tad short on the win/plc though
Saintsaire has failed to live up to expectation although looking through its form, often runs its best race first time out.
That’d be my thinking behind siding with it – six or seven times a winner after an absence of six months or more. His sole run on fast going last time out at Ayr wasn’t overly encouraging, but it came over three furlongs further and I don’t think he was 100% on the day either. He can still take the odd fence home with him, but Exeter’s obstacles don’t stack up as quite the jumping challenge of Cheltenham or Ayr’s the last twice.
I’m only moderately hopeful of him turning over Fair Along, for all that.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Would you take 5/4 for Fair Along? ? ?
I personally think that is a decent price.
3s for Saintsaire is decent value though.
KS,
If you think 3’s is good value for Saintsaire, then presumably you think it has a good chance of winning. Wouldn’t that then make the 5/4 about Fair Along poor value?
Or alternatively, if you think Fair Along is decent value at 5/4, then you must think that has a very strong chance of winning, meaning the 3/1 about Saintsaire isn’t such good value. Or if you think……………
…………….. Oh I give up
Good luck anyway,
Mike
No but if i say that then i have 40% of the field in my post.
I dont know what i mean to be honest, I thought Fair along would be shorter in price and i thought Saintsaire looks a decent bet at the odds.
I am going to have a little each way dabble on Pablo Du Charmil, I think 13/2 is pretty generous.
Very disappointing in Grand Annual, but his form prior to that probably gives him very good claims today
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I hope Fair Along wins – as I like the horse and I am still annoyed that they never let him bowl along in the Arkle.
5/4 is not exactly value – unless it wins
Think I will watch rather then play on this one.
Fair Along may not have everything his own way.. The second fav Saintsaire has started fav 8 times from his last 10 races and won only 3. They were all first time out and he is obviously best when fresh.
The 8 times a fav syndrome, could be the owner is a "Mad Punter or it could be the horse is more than useful and has dissapointed in the past
The bookies are out to lay this one and think an upset could be on the cards.
However, I think Fair Along has too much class and will end this horses first time out streak. The bookies are wishful thinking IMO, take the 5/4
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