Halcon Genelardais – E/W Gold Cup Contender?

[Fist of Fury 2k8]

Now Reetwith the greatest repspect you numpty I never at any point said he would get placed nor did I saw he would because he was the same price as other horses.

I pointed out that the Gold Cup places often fall to dour stayers that aren’t strongly fancied and occasionally they even win.

Personally I wouldn’t have 10 pence on the horse but I have had a saver on Turpin Green at 66/1 simply because he is a dour stayer has already been placed and anything could happen to any of the front 3.

I would say that was a pretty logical thing to do especially for someone like Bulwark who is looking to back an outsider in the race. He is IMO backing stayer than a speed horse.

The fact he has choses and different dour stayer than me is totally irrelevant.

Now please behave yourself and read posts properly before commenting or you will go to the back of the class

[scallywag76]

Whilst the variablity of weather patterns precludes a high degree of confidence, it does seem likely that fairly active weather systems will affect the Cheltenham area at times next week and beyond. Very tenuous estimates suggest a rainfall total of around 10mm between now and Thursday of next week (28th), with the potential of up to a further 25mm between 29th Feb and 9th March.

Those figures shouldn’t be taken too literally – they carry a serious health warning at this stage – but do indicate that there may be some prospect of cut, or at least ‘decent jumping ground’ for the festival.

[Grasshopper]

Your living in a dream world, scallywag…………….there’s no way on this earth that Claisse will allow decent jumping ground.

[scallywag76]

Damn, forgot to factor that into the equation!

Be interesting if he waters on the back of forecast like that, though!!

[Gingertipster]

Fist,
Me thats who, I backed at least three of them, See More Business 16/1, Turpin Green (took 200/1) and Docklands Express 16/1.

It is a mathematical fact that when there is one or two short priced horses it favours the each way punter.

Think it is futile betting on the going because it is in the hands of the racecourse employee (clerk). They want good or good-soft, or should that be they want us to believe it is good or good-soft. Therefore it will be called good or good-soft, only times will give a true reading, but that is not what the winner is paid out on.

Ginge

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

It is a mathematical fact that when there is one or two short priced horses it favours the each way punter.
Ginge

GT

I’d surmise it’s the other way round myself, do you have any proper evidence to support your ‘mathematical fact’?

[Fist of Fury 2k8]

I can put my hand on my heart and say I never backed one of them in the gold cup not even EW. Ginge

I’ma sucker for class animals in the right situation I’m afraid.

I did have a rare EW this tear on Turpin Green for the most stupid reasons imaginable.

I knew Nick’s old man and Turpin Green was finishing slightly better than ED was last year.

Of course he will probaly get so far bedhind Denman he’ll be tailed off and although Nick is a good trainer it’s pure sentiment that would like to see a horse from the yard run well.

I don’t see anything wrong with betting your fancy, in my case Kauto Star and throwing logic out the window and backing some big boat that might just run into a a place….anyway he’s got more chance than some as he is nuts and will just keep running

[davidjohnson]

It is a mathematical fact that when there is one or two short priced horses it favours the each way punter.
Ginge

GT

I’d surmise it’s the other way round myself, do you have any proper evidence to support your ‘mathematical fact’?

I’m with Ginge here. Eight runner maidens with a 3’s on poke aren’t called bad ew races for nothing. The second fav’s chance of being placed if far better than in relation to one fifth of what it’s win odds will be in this scenario.

[Smithy]

But 8-runner maidens with a 4/5 shot, a 6/4 shot and 6 rags…….

[Charlie D]

Although not as good as some Smithy, I do believe that race would be deemed a decent each way thieving race in some quarters

[Anonymous]

No better than 20s now. Halcon may not have the pace to beat Kauto but if the rain continues, he must surely be in the frame. I just re-watched the Welsh National (thanks for posting that on Youtube, jackane ) and it’s noticeable how much more sweetly he travelled than in most of last season’s races- I wonder if he’s improved mentally this term?

[Gazs Way De Solzen]

If it continues to rain and the ground gets more heavy, then i think he is a very good EW shout.

[chalk jockey]

I have not been impressed by his 2 Cheltenham runs.Until he runs well at the course I will leave him alone.

If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

[Author]

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