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Grayson
Denman would love the conditions but Kauto Star?
Sure he goes on soft, probably even heavy, but what about the extra stamina needed?I’d say he can potentially stay it until proven otherwise. "Unproven over a truly-run 3m2f on soft" is not the same to me as "Won’t stay a truly-run 3m2f on soft".
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I remember last season in the King George 06, monets garden went a really good looking confident gallop in front (all the talk in the run up was that he should outstay kauto) and was looking fit and jumping well (eventually emptying 4 out or so). What I noticed the whole way round was that Kauto star was travelling like an absolute superstar in behind, and didnt even look to be breaking sweat when the other were in trouble.
To be fair, though, he jumped through the last fence rather than over it that day.He wasnt even made to travel in last years GC, but travelled pretty well behind the free wheeling Fair Along on saturday at a fast gallop.
I wouldnt bet on Kauto Star being unable to stay any distance, any time he has been asked to travel he has, you can only be hopeful he wont if you take him on. The horse is a phenomenon.
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. I know some people dont bother with pace, and I can only assume you dont.
.Yeah, Stav thought so too!
Too many assumptions are bad for you, and your post is riddled with them.I cant see past – Kauto Star, Denman, Exotic Dancer.
For me its a race between these 3 horses and everything else is in a seperate race.
Grayson
Denman would love the conditions but Kauto Star?
Sure he goes on soft, probably even heavy, but what about the extra stamina needed?I’d say he can potentially stay it until proven otherwise. "Unproven over a truly-run 3m2f on soft" is not the same to me as "Won’t stay a truly-run 3m2f on soft".
gc
Totally agree, Kauto Star might stay 3m2f on soft / heavy, my point is there must be a doubt. So his price will be bigger on soft /heavy and his chance will certainly be less than it would be on good going.
Where as very soft will suit Halcon Genelardais, so will be shorter in price (bigger chance) than on good going. Estimate 16/1 on soft / heavy.Value Is EverythingHe’s a horse I like a lot, but it would have to be as heavy as when Master Oats won it and even then he’d still be behind Denman, Neptune Collonge and probalby Exotic Dancer even Knowhere. He’s one of those horses who the handicapper will never give a break to, so will be lumping big weights in handicaps or struggling in conditions races for years to come.
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Totally agree Stan.
Alan King knows exactly what Halcon G. has got, and his capabilities, which is why he was trained for exactly the same races that he won last year, particularly Chepstow where he was almost certain to get the ground and the stamina test he requires to show his best.
All this talk of the Gold Cup is pie in the sky, and I sincerely doubt he’ll even run in it. As AP suggests, he is much more likely to run in The Midlands Grand National, or maybe the Scottish version, much more in keeping with his stamina and a significantly bettter chance of his favoured ground.
He isn’t value – whatever the price and the ground, he just won’t feature.Reet,
In theory, would you lay HG at 50/1 on the day for the Gold Cup if it was heavy going?Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Reet,
In theory, would you lay HG at 50/1 on the day for the Gold Cup if it was heavy going?GT
I don’t lay horses, but I’d make an exception in his/your case.
He just isn’t good enough – on any ground.And it’s 100/1 for the ground to be heavy on Gold Cup day. Here, place your bets;
8/11 – Good
5/4 – Good to soft
16/1 – Soft
33/1 – Good to firm
100/1 – Heavy
500/1 – FirmMike
I would have a little tinkle on gd-frm and firm at 33/1 and 500/1.
I’d gladly take your money. You’ve probably got more chance of getting a bus to the moon than seeing ‘firm’ anywhere in the description come Cheltenham – I believe they are watering already
Mike
Global warming, British weather goes crazy,summer arrives ridiculously early, we get a drought in March that brings a government hosepipe ban and all of a sudden you will be paying out.
Just a gentle reminder of those of you who think Kauto Star, Denman, and Eotic Dancer have the floor to themselves and staying horses like Turpin Green 66/1 and Halcon Genelardais 50/1 have no chance of being placed.
Let’s for a moment leave the fantasy world you are in and visit the real world for just a moment.
Just how many of these horses did you say had no chance of a place in the Cup Cup
Norton Coin won 100/1
See More Business won 16/1
Cool Dawn won 25/1
Mr Mulligan won 20/1
Cool Ground 25/1
Garrison Savannah won 16/1Turpin Green 40/1
Hedgehunter 16/1
Take The Stand (IRE) 25/1
Truckers Tavern (IRE) 33/1
Harbour Pilot (IRE) 40/1
Sir Rembrant 33/1
Harbour Pilot 20/1
Strong Promise 20/1
Go Ballistic 66/1
See More Business 40/1
Barton Bank 33/1
Dubacilla 20/1
Young Hustler 20/1
Royal Athlete 66/1
Docklands Express 16/1
The Fellow 28/1The Cheltenham Gold cup is perfectly capable of making a fool us on it’s own without us making a complete ass of ourselves
The majority of the above could be describes as no more than dour stayers like the two mentioned who had no cahnce but who have a fantastic record for beeing in the first three in the Gold Cup
Fist,
You’re talking crap again. How many of the above horses either won or placed in races where the front two were 5/4 and 11/8?
Yes Carvill’s Hill was a short priced fav, but this time we are talking about two horses who have competed at the top level for two seasons (in Denmans case, once as a novice) and they have never failed yet.
If Exotic Dancer doesn’t place, then it’s obvious that a 20/1 plus horse is going to place – but who will it be?
Mike
maybe Mike but hw many horses run in the Gold Cup as well as their price would have you believe?…….Look at the horses that have finsihed second to Denman this year.
Regal Heights winner of a somewhat moderate race at Ascot a mile outside Gold Cup class
Mossbank Stuffed by Hi Cloy who couldn’t get a blow in when he ran in the King George nor could he beat Kicking King who aran like a cow the other day.
Dream Alliance failed to finish in his next two starts. The things a boat.
He looks the part but his form stinks to the high heavens in comparison to Kauto Stars.
We all expect him to be the horse that will take on Kauto but th truth is we have nothing other to go on that he looks great in poor company.That is all we have to go on and his price on that basis is ridicously low IMO
BJK looked a superstar in bad company and look at him now. Jonjo reckons he and everyone else simply overrrtaed the horse because he like Denman looked the part.
I refuse to dismiss the possibility that Denman could be overrated. I don’t think he is but I never thought Norton Coin could get a place never mind win the Gold Cup either.
It;s only natural to think we know hat the first three will be but in reality the chances of us being right when it comes down to the actual race are very remote indeed.history has proved that time after time after time.
No I am not forgetting The Listner but he never beat him far enough or easily enough to make me think he is in the same parish as Kauto Star.
Kauto would have won that race doing hand stands imo
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Just a gentle reminder of those of you who think Kauto Star, Denman, and Eotic Dancer have the floor to themselves and staying horses like Turpin Green 66/1 and Halcon Genelardais 50/1 have no chance of being placed.
Let’s for a moment leave the fantasy world you are in and visit the real world for just a moment.
Just how many of these horses did you say had no chance of a place in the Cup Cup
Norton Coin won 100/1
See More Business won 16/1
Cool Dawn won 25/1
Mr Mulligan won 20/1
Cool Ground 25/1
Garrison Savannah won 16/1Turpin Green 40/1
Hedgehunter 16/1
Take The Stand (IRE) 25/1
Truckers Tavern (IRE) 33/1
Harbour Pilot (IRE) 40/1
Sir Rembrant 33/1
Harbour Pilot 20/1
Strong Promise 20/1
Go Ballistic 66/1
See More Business 40/1
Barton Bank 33/1
Dubacilla 20/1
Young Hustler 20/1
Royal Athlete 66/1
Docklands Express 16/1
The Fellow 28/1The Cheltenham Gold cup is perfectly capable of making a fool us on it’s own without us making a complete ass of ourselves
The majority of the above could be describes as no more than dour stayers like the two mentioned who had no cahnce but who have a fantastic record for beeing in the first three in the Gold Cup
Love your logic, Fist – Halcon Genelardais can place in the Gold Cup because he is the same price as some others that did.
How many of the above Gold Cups had 6 horses officially rated 170 or more in them? (Or even half that number ).
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