- This topic has 46 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Ive always said that I dont like the Gold Cup as a betting prospect, but I have always fancied this horse as a possible contender at a gallop, however, his second in the welsh national to miko de beauchene, giving him 21lbs was rated 171 at the time and with miko running to a rating of 161 on saturday there is the possiblity that he is under rated. Nevertheless he looks to be possibly the best of the true staying chasers around and if reports are correct that Denman is likely to try galloping kauto star out of the race then he may have his pace, thus 50-1 on Halcon Genelardais is a very good price as one who wont be easily out galloped.
After all a serious gallop in 2006 seen Hedgehunter come a decent second, and HC IMHO looks to be better than that.Has anyone any thoughts? <!– s:idea: –>
<!– s:idea: –> or <!– s:cry: –><!– s:cry: –> <!– s:?: –><!– s:?: –>No chance unless the ground is bottomless. He was found out to be woefully short of pace last year and it will be no different this.
Agreed. The rain has to come back in spades to prolong Halcon’s season (usefully!) any further. Pity the Gold Cup wasn’t run on Greatwood Hurdle day the way things panned out ground-wise – he’d have loved a run out at HQ then.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
You may as well start a poll on "will there be soft ground on the Friday of Cheltenham?"
Fairly unlikely nowadays.Last years gold cup was a very steady gallop though, I dont for a second think he could win of a slow early pace, but indeed if the race was run more like 2006s (more than 9 seconds faster, on slightly better ground obviously), which seems to be the indications coming from denmans connections, then that is a totally different kettle of fish. The pace you are coming off will play to different strengths, a slow early pace will obviously play to a horse with plenty of toe, and a fast early pace to a horse with stamina. I would look at last years gold cup and say that HG wasnt suited to the slower pace due to the sort of horse he is (a stamina horse rather than a speed horse), kauto star arguably had everything perfect (although I honestly do think he can travel aswell).
As a general rule you’d be better sticking to a race with one strong contender looking for each-way bets- it looks like you’re playing for third place this year (he says who’s tipped up Knowhere each-way…)
He is no pushover that’s for sure and the fact he stays forever coud be a big plus. This wouldn’t be the first time everyone said the first 3 will be? and one of them wins and the other two run like dogs.
It looks on paper like Kauto Star, Denman, Exotic Dancer but how many times do Gold Cups turn out as expected………..Turpin Green who bet him last year for a place?………the owner and his/her mother?.
We might find Denman goes so fast thrying to shake of Kauto that he folds in a heap and finishes out the 3 because he cuts his own throat………that may be doubful but it could happen.
I think betting a stayer for a place is a lot better than some suggestions I have read on here……….they run on when everything else has had enough……..no speed horse will beat Kauto for toe…….no front runner will live with Denman…they will all be knackered by the second last IMO…….I’ go for it mate and take the chance he will do what you predict………
As a general rule you’d be better sticking to a race with one strong contender looking for each-way bets- it looks like you’re playing for third place this year (he says who’s tipped up Knowhere each-way…)
Very True Carvs, I’ve just had this feeling lately that the gold cup isnt going to be that simple this year, I’ve always found that a lot of the time these "two horse races" tend to end in punters tears. This year the big two, look unbeatable, last year I had a theory that Kauto Star’s jumping was only ever in question when he was at full stretch finishing his races. This year his jumping seems to have come on leaps and bounds, but then again, no horse has had him at full stretch this season. Denman is possibly going to be trying to make the running this year, and in a fast paced grade 1 3 mile chase, do you really want to be stuck out in front?
Not saying that these two arent absolute monsters, because they are, just stating what IMHO are the only possible chinks in their GC armour.
Knowhere is another horse again who to me (being by lord americo and by how he beat our vic last time) is another staying type and he is obviously in with a big chance if the race pans out with a fast early gallop.I can only agree with what’s said at the top of this thread, if it’s not at least soft then forget it. However if it is testing ground on the 14th I’d advise not to rule him out completely based on last years’ GC, as the pace would not have suited him at all and it was the first and only time in his career that he’s ever worn blinkers.
I spotted him in the market a while ago at around 50/1 and made a mental note that if the ground came up soft or worse to give his price another check. I’ve got his Welsh National run level with Neptune Collonges’ run at Wincanton on Saturday as the best by staying chasers this year outside the Big 3, so I rate him quite highly assuming he gets his ground.
- Total Posts 17716
In my view Halcon Genelardais hasn’t got a chance on anything faster than very soft ground.
If they go fast early he will be left behind exactly as he was last year, even with the blinkers that were applied to keep him in touch.
Any steadier pace than that, he will be left for dead when the pace increases exactly as he was in last season’s Cotswold.
Save your money, I’d say.I suspect he’s more likely to turn up at Uttoxeter the following day carrying top weight in the Midlands National.
AP
Of course it’s unlikely to be testing but if it can rain for hours on end in Gloucester in May, I’m sure it can on Friday 14th March as well!
As for HG, yeah, I can see him being one of those long-shots that run on for a place – Go Ballistic, Truckers Tavern, Harbour Pilot, Turpin Green etc.
I have been tghinking about this one recently. Halcon Genelardais needs soft or heavy but is it worth taking the chance at 50/1 + ? He will be around 16/1 if the ground does turn soft (unlikely but possible).
Possibly the best idea might be to keep an eye on the long range weather forecast.Value Is Everything16-1 seems a little bit skinny to me even in a renewal on deep ground – remember that such conditions are unlikely to hurt several of those higher up the betting than him, especially not Denman and probably not Kauto Star.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- Total Posts 17716
Herrrrrrrmmmm!
He finished 25l behind Exotic Dancer over a simlar c/d and on heavy ground. Where is he going to find the 25l+ he needs to even get placed?Grayson
Denman would love the conditions but Kauto Star?
Sure he goes on soft, probably even heavy, but what about the extra stamina needed?
3m2f110y on very soft ground on a stiff track like Cheltenham, at a strong pace, would (imo) be the stamina equivalent of 3m6f on good or good to soft around a flat track like Newbury. What are the chances of KS running to form in such conditions?On soft or heavy I would be a backer of Halcon at 20/1 plus.
HG was disappointing in the Piller on very soft, but I don’t think he was at his best that day, despite the ground.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHerrrrrrrmmmm!
He finished 25l behind Exotic Dancer over a simlar c/d and on heavy ground. Where is he going to find the 25l+ he needs to even get placed?He was beaten at a furlong shorter than the gold cup, having just been dropped back from 3m6f (10 secs slow on soft) and, despite being on heavy ground, the race 3m1f is 40 seconds slow, stayers dont like slow paces, especially when dropping back in trip against faster horses, do you really think that he could even get near his best in a race like that. I know some people dont bother with pace, and I can only assume you dont.
Also if you watch last years gold cup you will see that he run is towards the rear, the whole way (the worst place for a stayer to be at a slow gallop), and it is only when the tempo is raised well into the second half of the race and he is given an impossible task of trying to take ground from faster horses full of running that he fails to go with them and is soon pulled up and saved for better days.
I personally think he looked to be handling the ground well enough in last years GC (hes won on G-S before) and it just looked to be a stayer short of his best trip at a slow gallop, blinkered and given a questionable ride and far too much to do, nothing more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NaYXwI61OY
My thoughts are only that he will enter the GC as a 170ish rated staying chaser and if the race is run to play to his strengths rather than his weeknesses then he could run like 170ish staying chaser, against horses who may or may not stay a fast pace at the distance to 170ish ratings.
<!– s:idea: –> or <!– s:cry: –>
<!– s:cry: –> <!– s:?: –>
<!– s:?: –>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.