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In the French Derby there are 2 stand-outs. Behkabad and Lope De Vega. Simon De Montfort is eliminated on foaling dates and Planteur is eliminated by a lack of preps. He’s had just 1 run this season.
Well there you go, Lope De Vega does it from an impossible draw. Again. These French Classic trends of mine are incredibly strong actually. I look forward to the Prix de Diane on Sunday before hopefully another very profitable Royal Ascot.
Could you get me Ribblesdale trends please????? Want to see if Shajhaa and Lady’s Purse do well.
Derby breeding really is astonishing. Just looking back over the past decade, we’ve had such a wide range of stallions siring the Derby winner. Danehill, a G1-winning sprinter. Montjeu, a multiple 12f G1 winning horse. Grand Lodge, a G1 winner over a mile, ditto King’s Best. Extraordinary.
At First Sight was only the 2nd Galileo to place in the Derby, which means from 12 runners he’s had a winner, a second and 10 also-rans, although admittedly a large number of those also-rans finished 4th and 5th.
And just looking now at the Prix du Jockey Club, I noticed a trend through breeding the other day, that all the sires of the winners since the race distance was shortened were all Group 1 winning horses who’d won over no further than the Prix du Jockey Club trip. And low and behold, from 11 qualifiers (50% of the field), they made up the first 5 home between them.
Our Vic – both qualify at the moment, yes, but Lady’s Purse has no entry. To be honest, I doubt if we see Sajjhaa for a while yet.
I’ve just been through the entries at a rate of knots and 13 qualify at the moment. Acquainted, Akdarena, Aviate, Awe Inspiring, Fatanah, Gertrude Bell, Principal Role, Red Fantasy, Sajjhaa, Shamanova, Eldalil and Namaskar, although the latter 2 need to run again. Eldalil would need to finish in the top 2, Namaskar would need to win.
Stoute does however have an incredible record with fillies who’ve had just 1 outing that season. Quiff, Asawer, Scottish Stage all placed, although the former and latter were favourites, as was Leocorno last year (4th).
I’d be surprised to see Aviate, Awe Inspiring, Sajjhaa or Shamanova run, and I’d definitely be leaning towards Gertrude Bell or Principal Role at this stage. Fatanah and Acquainted both got close to Principal Role and Gertrude Bell respectively last time out, but they benefitted from setting a slow pace upfront.
And while horses coming from maidens have won the Ribblesdale (Sahara Slew, 2001, Oxx / Irresistable Jewel, 2002, Weld / Spanish Sun, 2003, Stoute), the others have all come from either pattern company, or in Silkwood’s case, handicapping.
Thought I’d have a little look around for anything resembling some decent value on Betfair and seen a few punts worth a few quid.
The Eclipse is a very nice trends race, and although you’d need to go back to 1996 to find a winner who hadn’t run at Ascot or in the Derby, I think Sariska’s a nice price at 22s. She meets all the trends nicely and it’s surely just a case of whether she’ll turn up at Sandown or at The Curragh for the Pretty Polly. Gitano Hernando and Fame And Glory (if he bypasses Ascot) appeal the most from the others.
Total Gallery’s gotten my money in the Golden Jubilee (110s). He faced an impossible task last time out giving 7lbs to some classy sprinters and takes a bit of time to get warmed up. 4 of the last 7 Jubilee winners ran in the King’s Stand and from the 3 exceptions, a King’s Stand runner was beaten by a neck in 2 of the runnings, so in my view it’s imperative to look for a horse with a King’s Stand engagement at the moment. Only a handful do (9), but it’s easy to pick holes in 6 of them (2 are Australian (won’t stay IMO), Overdose misses Ascot, Marchand D’Or I don’t think is the same horse, Alfred Nobel is nowhere near good enough & Equiano is a far better animal over 5f) and we’re left with Fleeting Spirit, Kingsgate Native and Total Gallery. Stoute seemed against running Kingsgate Native in both Group 1 sprints this time, while I don’t think Fleeting Spirit would either. Triple Aspect’s yet to win beyond Listed level but he could cause a shock.
I’ve had a bit on Dick Turpin for the St. James’ Palace at 17/2. A bit of a weird price against a 2/1 favourite who he’s met twice and beaten twice, especially given he’s a late-April foal who’s entitled to improve a lot more than Canford Cliffs.
And finally Air Trooper in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (85s & 90s). Looks like he’ll be campaigned very similarly to Rail Link.
Well, Ascot’s here again.
Queen Anne – Goldikova a clear pick. People will point towards the fillies’ and mares’ stat when trying to beat her beat but many fillies and mares have gone very close in the past 5 runnings.
Interestingly 0 of the past 10 winners had won at Ascot before, while the last 6 winners were all previous Group 1 winners and they were all seasoned Group 1 performers. Horses with fewer than 3 Group 1 starts the season before have a very poor record. The returning winner also has a dire record.
Horses without a prep haven’t run often (6 in the past 6 runnings), but all bar 1 finished in the top 5.
King’s Stand – actually not a race I’ve done trends for yet since it’s a very new Group 1. I see no reason to look beyond the Lightning Stakes winner’s record though, with the past 4 Lightning Stakes winners to have run in the King’s Stand having won it. The Temple Stakes used to be the race to look at, with the winner following up 6 times here between 1990 and 2001, but they’ve been out of luck since.
St. James’ Palace – far too many questionable things going on in today’s running. Siyouni should be a trends qualifier but isn’t because he never got a run in the Poulains and Noble’s Promise has nothing the trends can relate to. The only things the trends can definitely rule out are Makfi, Steinbeck, Hearts of Fire, Beethoven and Encompassing.
Coventry – since 2005 (a year after the race became a Group 2), a clear pattern’s presented itself.
Once-raced horses need to have posted a RPR of 95 or higher. Twice (or thrice)-raced runners need to have posted a RPR of 98+. And they MUST have won last time out.
Only 2 horses qualify; Strong Suit and Samuel Morse. Take your pick.
Craig Thake has a trend stating that 6 of the past 10 winners have won over 6 furlongs, but you only need to go back 2 years to find almost a carbon copy of Samuel Morse at this stage of the season; Art Connoisseur.
Tuesday went fairly well, although everyone expected it to be a favourite’s day and so it turned out.
In the Hunt Cup, Dandy Boy’s a clear pick. Meets every single trend and has a lovely draw to go with it.
Tiger Reigns is also thrown up but he needs cut to be at his best and the trainer reckons he’s not as good on a straight track, but he also has a nice draw too.
In the Prince of Wales, not so clear cut. It’s easy to eliminate Byword (hasn’t won a Group 1), and as such Mawatheeq, Glass Harmonium, Debussy, Allybar, Tazeez and Stimuation are ruled out too.
The next trend doesn’t eliminate any others; must have run outside the UK & Ireland on one of his/her previous 2 starts.
The trends also stipulate that he/she must have run in a Group 1 LTO and posted a top 3 finish. If you want to be harsh you can eliminate Cavalryman and Twice Over (outside the top 3 LTO), but both had nightmare races, as did Azamour in 2005 (4th in the Tatts Gold Cup), but that didn’t stop him winning this.
Presvis has already had 5 runs this year and horses with 4+ starts at this stage of the season haven’t fared too well. Shalanaya’s posted a RPR of 115 and I doubt that’ll be anything like good enough. Wiener Waltzer was destroyed by Byword LTO and I doubt Cavalryman will be fast enough.
Twice Over turned into a different horse at the end of last year after he’d built up his confidence and after he almost won this last year, I think he’ll go 3 better this year.
Nothing particularly strong today. The Ribblesdale’s a lovely trends race but the trends just throw up too many. 5 qualify on the trends, although if you want to be harsh you can get rid of Acquainted and Awe Inspiring (won no more than a maiden).
Gertrude Bell, Principal Role, Fatanah and Middle Club all remain, leaving a very murky picture, although if you want to get rid of the latter 2 on stamina doubts then I wouldn’t blame you.
Cecil’s other 2 main fillies haven’t done brilliantly this year, so I wouldn’t be too keen on Principal Role, while Gertrude Bell is fairly similar to Michita, Gosden’s winner 2 years ago, and ran a great race in the Oaks, being the only one home in the top 5 to race close-up with the pace.
Fatanah, Bikini Babe and Acquainted should ensure we get a proper gallop.
The Gold Cup’s a poor trends race and nothing has a solid profile, although Darley Sun would be a perfect fit had he won last year’s Doncaster Cup. His form in the Cesarewitch is superb (5L 2nd Mamlook).
I’ve been through the Coronation Stakes, and while it’s extremely difficult to whittle it down from the 24 qualifiers, it’s certainly possible to get the list down to about 15 and work from there.
I’ve backed Lillie Langtry and Sent From Heaven at 70s and 75s.
I’ve also looked at the Prince of Wales (been looking continuously for the past month) and I’m finding it increasingly difficult to see past Twice Over. He meets all the trends and ran a blinder in the race last year. 4/1’s a bit skinny though. Hoping Rip Van Winkle and Mawatheeq turn up to get a better price.
Strong Suit’s as good as a banker in the Coventry. 7/2s a steal.
Well Lillie Langtry saved my Ascot. Twice Over could have done that a lot sooner for me though, and why o why did I change my mind from Strong Suit to Samuel Morse…
The Golden Jubilee’s not a brilliant race and with only 8 runnings as a Group 1 the trends are a little on the skinny side. Total Gallery is one my trends throw up and his chance is strengthened having run in the King’s Stand on Tuesday. In the past 7 years King’s Stand runners have won the Jubilee 4 times, finished 2nd twice and 3rd once, and given there have only been 22 runners from the King’s Stand in the Jubilee, that’s an exceptional record.
Nothing fits perfectly in the Eclipse – Dar Re Mi and Twice Over fall down on one each, while Viscount Nelson actually has a very similar profile to Oratorio, except that Oratorio won a Group 1 at 2.
It generally pays to ignore big runs in the Prince of Wales’. My records go back to 1995 and from what I can see, the 11 Eclipse runners to have finished 1st or 2nd in the Prince of Wales’ were all beaten, while Eclipse winners such as David Junior, Falbrav, Notnowcato and Daylami all finished 3rd-5th.
I fancy Dar Re Mi to make all personally.
Right, I’ve been on a bit of a break since I’m saving money for my long, long holiday in August, but I’m putting the break to one side while I look at a few ante-post races.
The King George I reckon is Dar Re Mi’s for the taking. I don’t like the 3yos and although Harbinger’s form is very good, I just wonder whether he’s best at the start of his campaigns. He faltered last year after 3 runs (extremely impressive in the Gordon, just as he was in the Hardwicke) and he’s never been tested in a Group 1. The only recent non-Group 1 winner was Doyen, although he’d been tested in that company and finished 4th in the Arc and 2nd in the Coronation Cup. Harbinger at the current odds is no value whatsoever.
Dar Re Mi however is an exceptional mare and has run some magnificent races over the past year. Beating Sariska, 5th in the Arc, 3rd in the BC Turf and 1st in the Sheema. Clearly the 10f at Sandown was far too sharp for her, but she’ll come on massively for the run there and 12/1 is a silly, silly price.
In the St. Leger, Midas Touch sticks out like a sore thumb and deservedly so. 11 of the last 15 St. Leger winners had run in the King Edward or the Epsom Derby, while 14 of the past 15 winners had run in a Group 1 or the King Edward by now (I’m including GP de Paris when I say by now).
However, interestingly, not one of the St. Leger winners who ran in the Epsom Derby (6 of them) didn’t run in another Derby, GP de Paris or King Edward. That doesn’t bode well for Rewilding’s chances.
Furthermore, all the realistic contenders must have posted a top 4 finish in one of the above races. And they must have lost their maiden tag as a 2yo, providing they ran as a 2yo.
This leaves Cape Blanco, Midas Touch, Jan Vermeer, Workforce, At First Sight, Lope De Vega, Behkabad, Planteur, Pain Perdu, Arctic Cosmos and Buzzword as contenders.
We can realistically forget Cape Blanco, Workforce, At First Sight, Lope De Vega, Planteur, Behkabad and Arctic Cosmos as contenders. They either have their sights set elsewhere, aren’t good enough or blatantly won’t stay.
Midas Touch, Jan Vermeer, Pain Perdu and Buzzword are the remaining 4.
It’s quite a leap to assume that Pain Perdu will make the journey over from France for the St. Leger. It’s also unwise to assume the race is even a St. Leger ‘trial’. The only winner from that race since it was reverted to 10 1/2 furlongs was Scorpion who finished 16th on what was only his 3rd career start.
Buzzword I don’t think is anywhere near good enough.
So Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch are the 2 remaining runners. Jan Vermeer is following a very similar path to Scorpion actually (Gallinule, Epsom, Irish, GP de Paris, although Scorpion ran in the French Derby instead of Epsom) so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Jan Vermeer turned out to be the Leger contender, but he seems like a horse they’re trying to persevere with, trying to turn into a stallion and Midas Touch is the one not quick enough to win a 12f Group 1.
Hence 5/1 is a stonking bet.
And in the Arc, I’ve been following all the entries, comparing them to previous winners, I’ve come up with a shortlist of contenders.
Obvious criteria – must be a 3yo, must have won a Group 1 by July 14th, must not have been beaten more than twice that season.
6 names are on the list, and theoretically that could become 3 tomorrow night.
Workforce, Behkabad, Goldwaki, Sarafina, Planteur and the Japanese horse Eishin Flash.
Sarafina would be running in the Arc on only her 4th career start assuming she only runs in the Vermeille next. That’s suicide. Lammtarra did it but he was a total freak.
Workforce at 3/1 is not something I want to get involved in.
I was following Air Trooper before the Prix du Lys entries but after he wasn’t in the entries I had a few quid on Goldwaki at 3-figure prices and he’s clearly Fabre’s Arc hope for this year, following a similar path to Rail Link. I’ve backed him to win tomorrow and the Arc, done for the same for Behkabad, and done doubles and trebles with Midas Touch and Dar Re Mi. Although if neither of them win tomorrow and Planteur doesn’t win either, that’ll become a very, very short list.
Fingers crossed!
Well, the 6 become 4. Planteur and Goldwaki are eliminated by virtue of not having won a Group 1 by this stage of their 3yo seasons. Behkabad as I see it should be favourite for the Arc. Quite why there are 2 ahead of him in the betting I have no idea. Surely people have realised the Derby was a silly race by now?
Unfortunately I’ve lost out quite badly. My £20 @ 33/1 for him to win the Grand Prix de Paris + Arc is very poor value. I was expecting him to move to roughly the 6/1 mark if he won this, but he’s still there at 12.5 on Betfair.
So £20 @ his 9/2 SP makes £110, putting that on at 11/1 would make £1320, not the £680 I stand to win. Then add in the fact that his PMU price returned 8.8/1…hmmm I’ve not played this well at all.
Sarafina would be running in the Arc on only her 4th career start assuming she only runs in the Vermeille next. That’s suicide. Lammtarra did it but he was a total freak.
I think that it’s safe to safe she will prob go there…
is the distance not a worry for one who is faster (said to be) than your namesake?!
Isn’t there another to throw into the ‘4th start Arc winner
Bit of franking yesterday…
You’re talking about Shimraan? Yes, I’m rather annoyed that I didn’t back him at the colossal Betfair prices that were going around, as I was championing Air Trooper for a bit and Shimraan had him beat before and after the line.
I’m not worried though. Rouget reckons Behkabad is a total freak.
In part Zar…but also that ‘Saga’ did it in four too…
A change of heart from JC maybe then Zar?
He is meant to have said this:
"Last December, Jean-Claude Rouget confided that he didn’t have a very good bunch of 2 year olds, with the exception of Joanna"
The one who was 5 lengths behind that pair at Longchamp that day:
http://www.zeturf.com/en/resultats/1684 … x-de-lAvre
(It was right good battle between them two up the straight that day!)…won a lil’ race today…
http://www.zeturf.com/en/resultats/1748 … ix-PelleasThe quotes re: ‘Shim’ by trainer & jock are also quite bullish…
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