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Foaling dates have absolutely no bearing at all on the outcome of the 3yo classics. The idea that because one runner was born earlier gives them a mythical advantage is total poppycock – do all horses mature at the same rate or something? There’s a plethora of reasons against any significance and no proof whatsoever in favour. Strong advice would be to give it up, it’s a waste of time.
The Arkle price trend is imo hugely significant. The Guineas one less so but there’s still a logic behind it. The Arkle is most commonly won by a classy hurdler and, as such, one measurement of this expectation is price. For most races a price trend is useless, but in the Arkle it is shorthand indication of what does not have a realistic win chance. Time after time outsiders/rags are said to "have a chance" – they haven’t. If they had a serious win chance they’d be mullered in the betting, like a lot of winners are from much bigger prices. Misunderstanding the Arkle I approve of generally, it keeps the prices higher longer.
Other than that, an interesting thread although as you point out yourself Zark the sp rewards aren’t the best.
Just woken up and had an email saying I had a reply so I might as well reply…
I think you’re completely wrong and I have no doubt that 90% of breeders and trainers would agree with me. Let’s look at a few horses, starting with Arc winners. Everybody knows that the Arc is almost always won by a 3yo. But in the past 12 years we’ve had 3 old horses winning it – Sakhee, Marienbard and Dylan Thomas.
Dylan Thomas’ foaling date was April 23rd. As a 3-year-old he won 2 Group 1s – a weak Irish Derby and an Irish Champion Stakes with Ouija Board. As a 4yo he won 4 Group 1s, including the Arc.
Marienbard’s foaling date was May 26th. He won zero Group 1s as a 3yo, zero Group 1s as a 4yo and 3 Group 1s as a 5yo. A clear clear sign of progression and maturity.
Let’s look at a few other horses.
Dar Re Mi, a May 15th foal. No Group 1s as a 3yo. Filled the runner-up spot in the Yorkshire Oaks and Vermeille and then came 3rd in a Group 2. Then won 3 Group 1s the following season. This season she’s already won the Sheema Classic. Another clear clear sign that a late foal gets better with age.
Pilsudski, April 23rd. 0 Group 1s as a 3yo, 2 Group 1s as a 4yo, 4 Group 1s as a 5yo.
Pride, April 20th. 0 Group 1s as a 3yo, 0 Group 1s as a 4yo, 0 Group 1s as a 5yo, 3 Group 1s as a 6yo.
Daylami, April 20th. 1 Group 1 as a 3yo, 2 Group 1s as a 4yo, 4 Group 1s as a 5yo.
Les Arcs, April 24th. 0 Group 1s as a 3yo, 0 Group 1s as a 4yo, 0 Group 1s as a 5yo, 2 Group 1s as a 6yo.
David Junior, April 20th. 1 Group 1 right at the back end of his 3yo career, 2 Group 1s as a 4yo.
Grandera, April 21st. 0 Group 1s as a 3yo, 3 Group 1s as a 4yo.
Shirocco, April 10th. Won 2 Group 1s as a 3yo, more than in his 4yo or 5yo career but I don’t think you can compare winning the German Derby and winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf or Coronation Cup.
Nayef, May 1st. Won a Group right at the end of his 3yo career, 2 Group 1s as a 4yo, 1 Group 1 as a 5yo.
Look at a couple of recent fillies. Punctilious, May 7th. Won her only Group 1 in the middle of her 4yo career.
Petrushka, May 3rd. Sent off a warm favourite for the 1000 and Irish 1000 Guineas, could only manage a 4th and 3rd. Broke her Group 1 duck 2 months later in the Irish Oaks.
Rainbow View, May 23rd. Her first 3yo Group 1 came 4 1/2 months after her ‘flop’ in the 1000 Guineas.
Look at Cavalryman, May 9th. Took him 3 runs to get off the mark as a 3yo. Who’d have thought a horse like that would finish 3rd in the Arc? Hurricane Run, a late April foal. Irish Derby and Arc, Tatts GC and King George the following season.
Look at Sea The Stars for goodness sakes, just improved and improved and improved.
The evidence against your theory is overwhelming. And like a previous poster said, when a horse is only 3 years old, the difference 2 months can make is astonishing.
As for the 11/1 trend in the Arkle, no. That makes sense, but in that case the best trend to write would be ‘Must have been rated 143+ over hurdles – 10/10’. ForPadyDePlasterer was 12/1 on the morning of the Arkle. Are you suggesting he’d have lost had people not backed him?
Zark that’s erroneous – the fact that he was backed so strongly tells you everything!!
What you describe re: foaling dates is just that: description. Have you highlighted all the "later" births that won group 1s and equated them to the total pool as a percentage? If you do you’ll probably find something like a 2 week range where the numbers fall away, but so few will their representation be that co-incidence will be difficult to rule out. Ground, training problems, trainer preference, owner preference, individual mentality and maturity, breeding – all this is ignored as a random date is applied to explain a significance which doesn’t exist.
Sir Ivor (8 May), Dancing Brave (11 May) Northern Dancer (27 May)
Hand-plucked examples don’t cut it, but you’ll find neither does the hard data. edit: Also, you actually provide examples of where a "late" foaling date is no barrier to group 1 success as a 3yo. Which is odd. Further, the extrapolation and wedding together of a late foaling date and increased success at the age of 4 and 5 is hugely problematical, to the extent that it seeps into the realms of the bizarre to suggest that such success is
because they are
"late" foals!!
Good luck with it.
I happen to think that foaling date does play a part but only in that the horse with an early foaling date is a little stronger and a little more mature dependent on racing experience. But for me it is more about the ability and the riding weight of the jockey.
Question if you had 2 top jockeys one weighing 8st and the other 8st 6lb and they had simlair riding ability who would have an advantage?
Sir Ivor (8 May), Dancing Brave (11 May) Northern Dancer (27 May)
Like I said about Zafonic, Sea The Stars and Rodrigo De Triano, they’re freak horses, able to win despite their age. The horses I made an example of in my last post are not hand picked at all. I’m talking about 2 of the last 3 older Arc winners, I’m talking about last year’s dominant 12f filly/mare, I’m talking about last year’s 1000 Guineas odds-on favourite. It’s not as if I’m going back 20 years to find examples like you are, I’m using current day examples, examples from 2 seasons ago, etc.
Well, a bit of a 180 from me.
I’ve looked at the data and winning distances and I accept that Big Buck’s might have a point about foaling dates when it comes to the 2000 Guineas.
Just a neck prevented the April 29th colt Enrique winning it, while the April 25th Zafeen was only 3/4L away from victory.
If I put foaling dates to one side for a minute, the clear and indisputable trends pick is Fencing Master. I will therefore be backing him.
I do however have huge question marks over the form of the Dewhurst and he was being rousted along the entire race.
Elusive Pimpernel does fall down on the breeding side of things, but Elusive Quality’s had 2 previous runners in the race – Raven’s Pass (4th) and Evasive (6th). The former got a lot closer and eventually passed the winner as the season went on when ridden more prominently (a la Elusive Pimpernel) while the latter didn’t stay. Those problems obviously don’t exist with Elusive Pimpernel.
A spreadsheet is shown below (hopefully) outlining where each horse ‘goes wrong’. Any form figures which break trends are marked in red, but those trends are likely to be either;
Finished outside the top 4 on debut
Finished in the top 3 on final start as a 2yo
Fewer than 8 starts as a 2yo
More than 1 start as a 2yoThe 2yo race boxes are marked red because the horse ran in a ‘bad race’, ie. the Coventry (only for non-O’Brien runners), the Solario, the Middle Park or any Group race over 6f (only for non-O’Brien runners), etc.
Right then.
French 1000 Guineas – Special Duty is eliminated only on the draw. I don’t think she’s good enough anyway.
Liliside is the main trends pick, with Baine a close 2nd.
French 2000 Guineas – Siyouni an absolute banker.
Have had a £20 double at 20/1 and 3/1 for Liliside and Siyouni. Will be utterly distraught if she’s thrown out.
Really unlucky chaps…trainer must be as gutted – I see that he felt ‘Baine’ would have won with a clear run…
Did the stewards get confused with which Abdulla filly was struck into?!
Good to see that you paid the draw @ Longchamps some respect Zar…other judges were saying 10 from 10 was of no significance!
So, that’s only twice I’ve been screwed over by the French stewards now. Must be a co-incidence that both times the favourite’s been placed in first position…
Incidentally, Lope De Vega was actually a trends qualifier but I threw him out since Siyouni had beaten him twice, and actually I had the tricast (and still do have the forecast) had Liliside kept her rightful winning position.
Well, 4 races so far this flat season. 3 of the 4 were indisputable losers but I don’t know how to classify the French 1000. Before the (very unfair IMO) disqualification, I had the tricast and outlined Liliside as the clear pick. Baine was a close 2nd and actually Special Duty ended up being a qualifier since the non-runner effectively meant she was coming from stall 9. Best thing to do would be to eliminate it from my record this year IMO.
So, -3 points so far.
The Irish 2000 Guineas is between Xtension, Fencing Master & Viscount Nelson. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like Viscount Nelson will run (French Derby perhaps?), while I doubt Xtension is good enough. Fencing Master’s a a late-April foal and will have improved a lot from the 2000 Guineas because of it, not to mention he badly needed the run based on how he looked in the paddock. He’s my pick.
Irish 1000 – Came desperately close to the winner last year with Lahaleeb but Channon should gain compensation. Music Show an easy trends pick. Anna Salai is eliminated by virtue of only 3 career runs (like Again last year).
The 2 current qualifiers for the Coventry Stakes are Strong Suit and Retainer. I’m waiting on the RPRs for Cape To Rio (will probably fall a couple of pounds short) and Excel Bolt (looks Norfolk Stakes bound anyway).
I have absolutely no idea what to make of the Oaks now. Rumoush would be an extremely similar type of winner to Casual Look and she’s only just a qualifier on the RPR trend. Pipette has no chance after today’s disappointing effort (3 runs already this term disqualifies her on the trends anyway) and Wedding March was beyond dismal.
I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that there’ll either be a winner that completely destroys the trends or just a horrendously bad winner. Aviate is actually a good trends fit but if that wins the Oaks it’s surely the worst crop of 3yo fillies in years.
Jukebox Jury is a nice trends fit for the Coronation Cup right now.
Kite Wood lacks a recent run (otherwise a near perfect profile) and Harbinger would be a very, very similar winner to Daliapour but I don’t know if connections plan to supplement him.
I keep looking at the Derby and I really cannot see any other horse winning apart from the following 3; St. Nicholas Abbey, Cape Blanco, Workforce.
And I’m basing those 3 all around 1 trend; you’d have to go back to 1999 to find a Derby winner who had a RPR less than 118. And even Oath was only on 117 (the 3 before posted 100, 84 and 107).
St. Nick’s posted a 123 (115 LTO in the Guineas) and Cape Blanco a 120 (in the Dante) are the only 2 qualifiers on that trend. The only reason I’m including Workforce is that Stoute has the ability to find enough improvement in the horse I think. He has a stunning record with lightly-raced 3yos. He’s not too far below the 118 on 114.
Let’s use a 2nd trend that has really stood the test of time; must have had his/her debut on a Group 1 track. That eliminates Cape Blanco (debuted at Fairyhouse).
And let’s not forget that no horse beaten in the Dante has ever won the Derby. So that eliminates Workforce.
But there’s also a stat saying that horses unplaced in the Guineas don’t win the Derby, which would eliminate St. Nick.
But I am really struggling to see St. Nick beaten.
Sir Percy and New Approach spoiled some beaten LTO Derby stats recently, but they were placed, and second behind above average guineas winners too. I couldn’t have the unplaced St Nick myself.
I think the decision Murtagh will have is similar to the one he had between Rip and F&G, and i think he’ll get it wrong again. Cape Blanco for me.
If he runs, Peruvian. Very weak on the exchanges. Midas Touch actually 2nd favourite.
Had a quick think about Royal Ascot this morning – namely the St. James’ Palace Stakes.
You’d need to go back to 1998 to find a winner who hadn’t run in either the 2000 Guineas AND Irish 2000 Guineas or the French 2000 Guineas.
The first trend would mean Fencing Master, Viscount Nelson, Xtension and Canford Cliffs are all qualifiers.
We’ll ignore the second trend for now since we have no idea what’ll run from the St. James’ Palace, except for Dick Turpin. However, 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 4 in a European Classic. That would mean only Lope De Vega (Prix du Jockey Club-bound), Dick Turpin, Shamalgan and Buzzword qualify, although the latter’s eliminated on a later trend.
I don’t believe Dick Turpin is good enough, nor will he really truly stay a mile, and Shamalgan surely benefitted greatly from a very messy French 2000 Guineas.
And what’s more, the winners of the SJP who’d run at both HQ and the Curragh had all finished in the top 5 at HQ. 10 of the last 15 winners qualified through this trend. 4 had run in the Poulains, while Dr Fong went for the Jean Prat and Dante before stepping back in trip.
So, from Fencing Master, Viscount Nelson, Xtension and Canford Cliffs, we can realistically eliminate Viscount Nelson who finished 11th at Newmarket and Fencing Master in 7th.
I do not believe that Canford Cliffs is a miler, so I’ll eliminate him, leaving us with Xtension.
It won’t really matter how he runs tomorrow in Ireland – Zafeen ran appallingly badly after his 2nd at HQ and still won at Ascot. Bijou D’Inde finished 3rd at HQ and 4th at The Curragh but was still victorious, while Bahri and Giant’s Causeway failed to improve upon their positions in the 2000 Guineas.
I managed to get a few quid on Xtension at 20s earlier and actually had a dabble on Viscount Nelson at 100s too.
I’ve been through the Coronation Stakes, and while it’s extremely difficult to whittle it down from the 24 qualifiers, it’s certainly possible to get the list down to about 15 and work from there.
I’ve backed Lillie Langtry and Sent From Heaven at 70s and 75s.
I’ve also looked at the Prince of Wales (been looking continuously for the past month) and I’m finding it increasingly difficult to see past Twice Over. He meets all the trends and ran a blinder in the race last year. 4/1’s a bit skinny though. Hoping Rip Van Winkle and Mawatheeq turn up to get a better price.
Strong Suit’s as good as a banker in the Coventry. 7/2s a steal.
I’ve also been staring at the Oaks for the past few days, desperate to find the winner in an incredibly bad renewal. I cannot bring myself to back Rumoush and I cannot bring myself to back Remember When, even though I can make compelling cases for them both. Instead I’m going for Termagant. She does meet all the trends although I am very worried about her running in the Irish 1000. Only O’Brien’s been able to run an Oaks winner in both in the 1000 and at Epsom. 20s is a fair price though given that the majority of other runners have much bigger negatives against them, although it’s shameful to see the highest rated horse on the RPRs is just 111, and even those are totally false ratings.
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