- This topic has 157 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Yay, more trends races.
Fillies’ Mile has got some solid stuff to go on, but the Lodge has completely changed in the past 4 years while the QE2’s a total waste of time.
13 of the last 14 had a top 3 finish LTO (just Sunspangled for AOB the exception, 5th in the Moyglare on heavy) and maidens also don’t boast a great record. Only Red Bloom and Bosra Sham came via maidens.
Hibaayeb ran in the perfect prep race for this LTO, the May Hill, but I’m not convinced for a second as to the quality of the May Hill. Brittain also trains and she’s still a maiden.
You’ll Be Mine and Dyna Waltz are coming via maidens so they’re gone, while Long Lashes, Chantilly Creme and Blue Angel all finished outside the top 3 LTO.
Lady Darshaan, Mudaaraah and Sent From Heaven all remain. I cannot split them, I just can’t. I’ve backed Lady Darshaan at 21s and 95s for this and the 1000 respectively, I’ve backed Mudaaraah for this at 13s and I’ve got Sent From Heaven at 85s for the 1000. I’d love to split them but I just can’t.
As for the Lodge, well, there are 2 types of winners. Take away the last 4 runnings and you want a horse who won last time who came via a Nursery, Novice or Listed race and hadn’t yet run in a Group race. Frozen Power’s the closest thing to that.
However, the last 4 runnings have all had exactly the same type of winner. Ran in a Pattern race LTO and was beaten although all finished 2nd or 3rd. The 2 who fit that profile are Vale of York (who won extremely narrowly at Goodwood) and Black Spirit who finshed 4th in the Solario LTO. 4 horses have run 5 times since the Solario and 4 of them were winning runs – the other was 3rd. The winner’s form ties in nicely with the winner of the Champagne Stakes Poet’s Voice and he looks an extremely nice each-way punt.
The QE2 trends tell us absolutely diddly squat.
Well, I’ve done trends for the Champion Stakes and they leave us with just 1 horse – Sariska.
5 strong trends for this race;
Must have been 1st or 2nd LTO (City Leader, Forgotten Voice, Never On Sunday, Virtual, Alpine Rose, Barshiba, Fame And Glory and Set Sail all gone)
No more than 6 runs that season (Campanologist, Forgotten Voice, Barshiba and Set Sail all gone)
Must have won a race (City Leader gone)
3yo or 4yo (or older if he/she ran in the Arc) (Pipedreamer and Barshiba gone)
4yos+ must have finished 1st or 2nd in a Group 1 (Campanologist, City Leader, Doctor Fremantle, Forgotten Voice, Mawatheeq, Pipedreamer, Twice Over and Barshiba all gone)
So Fame And Glory’s eliminated on only 1 trend, but when he take his extremely stout breeding into consideration, plus Aidan O’Brien’s poor record with 3yos in Group 1s in October, he’s very easy to overlook given his price.
Never On Sunday represents the winning trainer-jockey of 2 of the last 3 winners – Pride and Literato. It’s just his last run that eliminates him, finishing 7th in the Marois. It’s possible that, like Haafhd, he was asked to run over a trip too sharp at that stage of his career.
Mawatheeq represents an excellent prep race in the Cumberland Lodge (1 winner and 2 placed from 4 runners), but he lacks the Group 1 experience that Nayef had and looks all but nailed on for a place.
In terms of other prep races (relevant to this field), the Arc has provided 7 runners of which 2 won and 3 were placed. All 7 runners were aged 4, 5 or 6. Of the 4 4yos, 2 were placed (Montjeu & Hurricane Run). The 2 5yos provided a winner and a 2nd (Pilsudski and Pride) and the sole 6yo won (Pride).
The Yorkshire Oaks has provided 2 runners, both of which were unplaced. Love Divine (4th) and some other no hoper who ran in about 15 races that season.
I’ve backed Never On Sunday already at 8/1 and I’ll be doing Sariska as well. Fillies actually have quite a good record in this year, with 96, 98, 99 and 06 victorious years, and the runner-up in 04 and 05.
I’ll also try my hand at a combination forecast/tricast involving Never On Sunday, Sariska, Mawatheeq.
The Dewhurst’s a tricky contest, made easier by the withdrawal of Arcano.
Steinbeck & Fencing Master can be ruled out on account of having had less than 2 runs and because he’s the winner of only a maiden.
Beethoven, Buzzword, Dick Turpin, Free Judgement, High Twelve, Lord High Admiral, Manhattan Fox and Timely Jazz can be happily eliminated. Now it gets tricky.
Maroon Machine’s not won a Group race and has already ventured into pattern company twice so I’m happy to overlook him.
Extremely tricky to separate Xtension, Silver Grecian and Chabal on the trends. If you go down the tried and tested route, Xtension’s the one. The Vintage Stakes has been a good prep for this race and he was victorious LTO, unlike Chabal and Silver Grecian.
I happen to think the Champagne Stakes winner is a sprinter and Ballydoyle don’t seem to rate Viscount Nelson that highly, so I’d overlook Silver Grecian.
Chabal represents the winning connections of the past 3 winners, but he was beaten in a Group 1 LTO.
Really it’s too hard to tell them apart.
From a personal point of view, it has to be Chabal. Xtension’s sire Xaar has never sired a Group 1 winner, Silver Grecian I just don’t think is good enough, Steinbeck will lack for the experience, plus O’Brien has a dismal record in this race, while Bolger knows what it takes to win this race, and this looks a much easier task than it was for Teofilo and New Approach.
Well I’ve just had a read through of this thread and looked at a couple of places where the trends have gone wrong and I’ve come to 2 conclusions;
1) I must stop having an opinion. I eliminated Art Connoisseur on a personal level even though he fit the trends perfectly. I also eliminated Spacious from the Windsor Forest reckoning, even though she’d had the same prep as 4 of the last 5 winners, simply because I had her down as a bit of a dog.
2) I need to give more leeway. On 4 occasions this year I’ve been ridiculously harsh and paid for it as a result. The French Derby trends said that the horse must have won LTO. Well Le Havre had finished 2nd in the French Guineas. Turn that into a 1st and he was the trends pick. I need to have some sort of comparison, ie. 1st in a Group 2 = top 3 in a Group 1.
I said that 10 of the last 11 King George winners had won that season, and as a result, I eliminated Conduit based on his photo-finish loss to Cima De Triomphe when giving away weight over a trip 4 1/2f shy of his debut Group 1 victory.
And I was also happy to use Cima De Triomphe’s Italian Group 1 as qualification on the Eclipse trends and backed him EW instead of doing Sea The Stars for the win.
And Twice Over in the Champion Stakes. One of the trends I found was ‘must have been 1st or 2nd in a Group 1’ and Twice Over fell down there. He did however finish 3rd in the Lockinge.
Or I could just change it to say ‘Must have run in a Group 1’ like Craig Thake did in the RP.
This thread’s now done for the year since the trends for the RP Trophy are non-existent, although I may do trends for the BC Mile, BC Turf and BC Filly & Mare if I can be bothered.
- Total Posts 170
I thought twice over finished 2nd in the Champion STakes in 2008 behind New Approach.
So, year 2 has arrived. Let’s begin.
St. Nicholas Abbey – the obvious pick. However, he falls down on quite a few trends. He’s an April foal. A mid-April foal at that (April 13th). Zafonic (April 1st) & Sea The Stars (April 6th) bucked that trend while Rodrigo De Triano was a May foal (May 27th, an absolute freak). 3 special horses. Is St. Nick a special horse too?
He’s also been given a dreaded RPR of 123. 7 2000 Guineas runners have been rated 122 or higher as a 2yo in the past 15 runnings. None have won. Celtic Swing, New Approach and Mujahid were all placed, while Alhaarth, Xaar, Tobougg and Dubawi were also-rans. Bar the latter, the other 6 all have 1 thing in common – they won either the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy.
The third trend on which he falls down is the breeding. You’d need to go back to 1996 (Mark of Esteem, sired by Darshaan) to find a 2000 Guineas winner who wasn’t sired by a Group 1 winner between 5 and 8f.
All in all, that doesn’t add up to a 6/4 shot.
Elusive Pimpernel – he too falls down on the breeding side. Elusive Quality didn’t win a Grade 1. He won just 2 Grade 3s, but he did set the world record for a mile race on turf and some of the horses he’s sired over the past 5 years have been immense.
EP also falls down on the prep trend. Very few Guineas winners have a prep these days. 2004 and Haafhd was the last, 2000 and King’s Best the time before that and Pennekamp in 95. Just 3 in 15 runnings. The former 2 both ran in the Craven though (1st and 2nd respectively) and one does tend to come along every 5 years or so. Delegator was 2nd last year to a freak horse having won the Craven.
His foaling date is near enough perfect, falling on February 14th. I can’t give you a reason why it’s so, but the amount of Classic winners foaling in mid-February is startling. Perhaps it’s just the most common time for dams to give birth.
Another positive for him is his 2yo rating. 115. 10 of the last 11 winners were rated between 111 and 121 as a juvenile – Golan the exception in 2001.
Awzaan – dismissed very easily on the trends. Middle Park winner (15 Middle Park runners in the past 15 years, just 1 placed – Dutch Art) and ran in a Group race over 6f, a feat which only Aidan O’Brien-trained runners have managed to do before winning the Guineas.
Fulfills all the other criteria.
Canford Cliffs – again, readily dismissed. Ran in a Group race over 6f and ran in the Coventry Stakes, again, a feat only O’Brien Guineas winners have managed.
His stamina index figures only add up to 16.3 whereas Guineas winners tend to be around the 19 mark. 49 runners had a figure less than 16.5. Only Island Sands won, 5 others were placed and 43 unplaced.
Also been a very long time since a Guineas winner has had a Greenham prep, although runners-up from that last have a strangely good record in terms of being placed. Bahri 3rd 95, Revoque 2nd 97, Frenchmans Bay 3rd 01, Zafeen 2nd 03 and Dutch Art 3rd 07.
Fencing Master – a late-April foal, the biggest negative against his name by far. Strictly speaking stands up on the breeding since Oratorio won the Jean Luc Lagadere as a 2yo, but I’d tread with caution. It was a trappy affair with a nose and a head separating the front 3. The runner-up Early March was an also-ran in the Classics and went on to ply her trade in Group 3 and Listed contests with Layman was an also-ran in 3 Group 1s. It was a Group 3 in all but name.
Also worth noting the similarities with Tendulkar. He too was a once-raced 2yo going into the Dewhurst and he also finished placed. He finished 20th of 22 in the Guineas. The Dewhurst form looks pretty horrendous too.
Xtension – falls down on the 6f Group race trend. Xaar not a great sire either. 40 runners in Group 1s, 2 2nds and 2 3rds. Vintage Stakes runners are 0-3-13. Beaten by both Canford Cliffs + Fencing Master as a 2yo. Dewhurst form looks poor and weld held by others on a line through Mata Keranjang.
Inler – where to begin?
1. Rated less than 98 as a juvenile. 1-5-63 in past 15 runnings (Golan the exception)
2. Didn’t run over 7f as a juvenile (not bothered to do stats for this but Island Sands the only exception)
3. Didn’t run in a Group race. 0-4-31 since 2002.
4. Rated less than 107 as a 3yo (obviously, given no. 1). 0-5-46 since 2002.People will point to similarities with Golan but he had at least performed over 7f and clocked a very fast time in his maiden. Inler should easily stay a mile given his pedigree but his price is based on gallop reports and not form. If there is to be a shock winner of the Guineas, this guy’s the one to deliver it.
Hearts Of Fire – a very late April foal. Fulfills a lot of the criteria but he has some unordinary form for a Guineas runner, not really comparable to any recent runners. Ran over 5f and 6f in Listed company. Had 8 runs as a juvenile, a negative in terms of stats but not many examples. 0-1-12 (Redback 3rd in 2002).
Dick Turpin – A very late April foal, sire didn’t win a Group 1, ran over 6f in Group company as a 2yo and finished outside the top 3 on his final start as a 2yo. Well held on Dewhurst form.
Al Zir – the recent gamble and easy to see why. Well held on Racing Post Trophy form. His sire, Medaglia D’Oro, didn’t win a Grade 1 between 5 and 8f. Also falls 2 shy of the 111-121RPR barrier.
No perfect match, but Al Zir and Elusive Pimpernel do come close. The latter falls down on the prep race, the former falls down on the 2yo rating. They both fall down on the breeding trend, but that looks like a trend that will change fairly soon given the ever-increasing amount of American-bred runners over here. It’s also worth noting that the 4 placed Racing Post Trophy runners to run in this over the past 15 runnings were all placed.
It’s difficult however to trust Godolphin on recent Classic form. Their 2000 Guineas runners have fared 12th, 10th, 19th, 13th, 5th, 10th, 2nd, 14th, 10th, 19th, 14th, 16th, 19th, 9th, 14th, 16th, 4th, 13th and 18th since their last winner in 1999. That’s 19 runners with just 1 placed.
St. Nicholas Abbey falls down on 3 trends and while he may be a freak, 6/4 is no sort of price. I was thinking the other day about 3m+ Grade 1 chases during the National Hunt season and the only short-price winner who came to mind was Kauto Star, by a nose in the Betfair Chase + in the King George. Otherwise, beaten in the Gold Cup, Denman beaten in the Guinness, Cooldine beaten in the Irish Hennessy, Imperial Commander beaten in the Totesport. If you included the Grade 2s you’d begin to include Carruthers in the Argento, Denman in the Aon, etc.
Short-priced favourites are rarely good things, and with New Approach, Xaar, Dubawi, One Cool Cat, Hawk Wing, Alhaarth + Celtic Swing all beaten at 2/1 or less as favourite, the 2000 Guineas is really not a race for the jollies. In fact only 1 favourite has won since Zafonic in 1993. St. Nicholas Abbey is a place lay for me. Putting the trends to one side, Montjeu’s are quirky animals and he could easily boil over on the day.
And now onto the fillies’ equivalent.
Special Duty – likely to be a very popular favourite come Sunday, despite me not understanding how every single person on the planet (bar me) thinks she deserves to be favourite on form.
However, falls down on the breeding side of things. Her stamina index figures add up to 15.5. That does not point towards ‘miler’, especially not a Rowler miler. Having said that, a couple of recent winners have come very close to that 15.5 mark. Finsceal Beo was on 16.4 while Attraction had just 16.1.
The second negative is not so much a trend. Every Special Duty fan can’t wait to tell you how good Critique Head-Maarek’s record is in the race. So I’ll tell you how good her record is. Last 15 runnings, 5 runners, 0 wins, 0 places.
Macoumba was unbeaten in 3 & came 6th, Pas De Response’s record was very similar to Special Duty. She won the Cheveley Park & actually won the Prix Imprudence but only managed 4th in the Guineas. A year later and Loving Claim filled 5th, the following year Moiava came 19th and her last runner in 2001, Stunning, came 7th. And just 2 years ago everyone was waxing lyrical about Proportional, but she was beaten in the Imprudence & didn’t even turn up at HQ.
Pascal Bary has been the main French hope for the Guineas, finishing 2nd with Six Perfections in 2003 – and you’d be hard pushed to find someone who’d say she shouldn’t have won – and then 1st with Natagora 2 years ago.
Music Show – every time I consider her as a viable contender, Mick Channon’s Group 1 record just pops into my head. Just 7 non-2yo Group 1s in almost 20 years. I’m also not sure about her breeding. Noverre’s sired just 1 Group 1 winner – Le Havre, a winner of a poor French Derby when the trainer was in flying form.
The trends say she’s just about the perfect contender though.
Seta – the main thing that sticks in my mind is her foaling date. It’s a negative, but only just. She was foaled on May 2nd, so everything points to her being a much better 4yo (Cumani said exactly the same thing in the RP yesterday), but some late April foals have won the race in recent years. Speciosa (April 28th) and Wince (April 26th).
In hindsight, their respective runnings weren’t the strongest renewals ever and it could be that up against a good field, Seta might not be strong enough to win.
Pollenator – holds Hibaayeb & Seta on form (has beaten the former on both occasions they’ve met). The only trend that eliminates her on Thake’s trends is that she’s already won over a mile. Finsceal Beo defied that trend as did Kazzia. Given they were very different types of horse, I think it’s best to ignore that trend. On my trends, she’s eliminated by virtue of taking too long to win a race. That doesn’t mean to say she lacks the ability, but that she possibly lacks winning mentality, especially given the distance between her & Hibaayeb was the same both times they met.
Will continue later…
If a horse is born on December 31st 2009 and runs in the 2000 Guineas 2012, he will technically be a 3-year-old.
In reality he will be a 2-year-old.
So don’t be so stubborn. It’s the horse equivalent of a child being born in late-July and having to be the youngest child in each Year.
I thought the breeding stat was quite interesting. If there is one trend that has some value for me, its that one. Has to be a slight doubt that the race could all be a bit quick for him
But "beaten favourite" trends mean nothing unless there is an explanation. I suppose its true that some horses can be overhyped during the winter but equally this stuff can just be "one of those things"
without a theory, these trends can mean virtually nothing
Completely agree, Clive. I hate nothing more than empty trends a la ‘Started no bigger than 11/1’. I did at least account for 7 of the 14 beaten favourites though
Right, apologies to Craig Thake. The trend is that a horse must have a topspeed figure in excess of 92 and that 9 of the last 10 winners qualified. Sea The Stars the exception on 87. Interestingly Rock of Gibraltar was the next lowest on 93 while Hawk Wing also had a mid-90s figure. Every other winner had a 3-digit figure. Redback was rated 91 too, 2nd to Footstepsinthesand. This seems to suggest the trend can be disregarded for Irish-trained runners.
Anyway, St Nicholas Abbey has a 92 topspeed figure, Al Zir’s on 91 and the other market principals all have ratings of 100+.
But "beaten favourite" trends mean nothing unless there is an explanation. I suppose its true that some horses can be overhyped during the winter but equally this stuff can just be "one of those things"
Continuing my reply from earlier on, I have all my data in front of me now. As I said earlier, 6 favourites were all rated 122+ on RPRs as a 2yo and all were beaten (Mujahid wasn’t favourite).
Tobougg didn’t win a single race after his juvenile career. Xaar won just the Craven and Alhaarth won 3 Group 2s after several tries at a Group 1. Clearly they were all just very forward 2-year-olds.
Dubawi’s defeat was down to 2 reasons IMO. 1. The ground and 2. The trainer. And Celtic Swing and New Approach both needed a step up in trip and each won a Derby (or 2, in the latter’s case).
Now, the other 7.
Revoque, Orpen, Giant’s Causeway, Hawk Wing, Hold That Tiger, One Cool Cat, Adagio and Delegator. The latter 2 were easy winners of poor Craven renewals and they’d both had a mid-place finish in the Dewhurst. The former was a highly rated 2yo (119, won the Dewhurst) and had finished 2nd in the Greenham on his reappearance. But he won only a Conditions event as a 3yo.
The other 4 were all Aidan O’Brien-trained. Orpen had been bought from another yard after winning the Morny and clearly didn’t stay a mile. Giant’s Causeway simply wasn’t fast (and/or fresh) enough to repel the challenge from such a big field. Hawk Wing should have won and Hold That Tiger was favourite because it was such an open field and punters wanted to side with O’Brien.
Very interesting reading Zarkarva, you obviously know your horse racing knowledge.
For my part my ex-son in law worked for a number of Newmarket trainers and let me have a few pointers and there are a number of things that the average man in the street wouldnt think about. Breeding is a big concern as is the fitness levels of the horse but age and experience come into the equation for the big races.
Wish I’d seen this earlier because I’ve just spent ages writing down the foaling dates of the main contenders in the 2000gns. 8 weeks is a long time development wise when you’re only 3 years old I would imagine.
Foaling dates have absolutely no bearing at all on the outcome of the 3yo classics. The idea that because one runner was born earlier gives them a mythical advantage is total poppycock – do all horses mature at the same rate or something? There’s a plethora of reasons against any significance and no proof whatsoever in favour. Strong advice would be to give it up, it’s a waste of time.
The Arkle price trend is imo hugely significant. The Guineas one less so but there’s still a logic behind it. The Arkle is most commonly won by a classy hurdler and, as such, one measurement of this expectation is price. For most races a price trend is useless, but in the Arkle it is shorthand indication of what does not have a realistic win chance. Time after time outsiders/rags are said to "have a chance" – they haven’t. If they had a serious win chance they’d be mullered in the betting, like a lot of winners are from much bigger prices. Misunderstanding the Arkle I approve of generally, it keeps the prices higher longer.
Other than that, an interesting thread although as you point out yourself Zark the sp rewards aren’t the best.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.