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Cima;s group one success was as weak as they come. You simply cant rate that above placed efforts of others in stronger races
That’s fair enough, Clive. That’s why I’ve started the thread, to get constructive criticism like that, so thank you.
Jean Prat trends. A relatively new race so not many obvious ones.
Must have run in a French Classic, must be French-trained, must have won LTO.
Oiseau de Feu is the obvious one but Handsome Maestro failed by only a nose LTO. Win single on Oiseau, EW on Handsome Maestro and a RFC.
Sorry for lack of words but Federer’s playing!
Should mention that Feels All Right’s last run should be forgiven and his profile is fairly similar to that on Tamayuz’s, who this last year.
Again, a relatively new Group 1 in the Falmouth Stakes but a few decent trends.
The only winner not to run in a Group 1 LTO was Soviet Song and horses who didn’t win LTO have a poor record but that’s based on only 11 runners. Horses who ran outside of pattern company also have a poor record.
Rainbow View and Goldikova are the best 2 on the trends. Goldikova looked a superstar last year and she’s the pick after Rainbow View’s been fairly overraced this year.
Well a short-priced winner but a winner on the trends nonetheless.
Just re-done the July Cup trends to make sure I’m not way off on my assertion that Prime Defender is going to win.
It’s worth saying that the profile of the winner completely changed in 2003. For the life of me I can’t understand why. We saw 2 horses drop back from the Jersey 7f (both O’Brien-trained), a couple of horses ran poorly at Ascot, one had had 8 starts already that season, but the profile of the winner over the past 6 runnings has been very consistent.
Lightly raced that season, younger than 7, ran in a Group 1 sprint (or the King’s Stand pre-2008) or won a race LTO and finished in the top 7 in the Jubilee (if he/she ran).
The trends throw up 4 horses; Main Aim, Prime Defender, Fleeting Spirit and Art Connoisseur.
I don’t believe for a second that Main Aim’s good enough and I don’t believe Fleeting Spirit will get the trip. Incidentally I think Art Connoisseur might turn out to be nothing more than an Ascot specialist.
I just think Prime Defender is a barmy price at 100/1 and is easily worth each-way money.
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Princess of Wales’ Stakes
Stamina is the key to the race. 12 of the last 14 winners were at least placed over 13f or further (actually 11 of the last 14 but Fruits Of Love won the King Edward, a recognised Leger Trial).
Non-Mark Johnston trained 3yos have a poor record, while Coronation Cup runners haven’t done well. You also want something that ran in a Group race LTO.
All The Aces and Enroller have shown good form over further than 12f but the former’s soft ground dependent and Enroller seemingly wants cut, although I’m not sure if it’s a must-have.
Doctor Fremantle flopped in his one attempt over further than 12f (in the Leger) and ran poorly last time out.
Those are the 3 on the trends. Campanologist would be next best but I have question marks over his stamina. I don’t really think he got the last 100 yards in the Hardwicke.
Take your pick.
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July Stakes
2 major trends for this. 2 career runs and a top 5 finish LTO. 9 of the last 14 winners had pattern form.
Taking all 3 trends into consideration Nosedive is the one to be on. Niran and Ghostwing lack pattern form.
Well the July Stakes trends were completely blown apart but if you went with the ground then you’d have backed Doctor Fremantle in the Princess of Wales’.
Just 4 trends for the King George but 4 strong ones which whittle them down nicely.
Group 1 winner, top 3 finish LTO, ran in a Group 1 LTO and less than 5 runs that season.
Knocks it down to Ask, Conduit and Look Here.
However, the last 10 King George winners had all won that season and the last 11 Eclipse runners all failed. The Derby meet’s been a nice place for King George winners with Lammtarra, Swain, Daylami, Galileo, Alamshar and Doyen all being at least placed in the Derby or Coronation Cup before winning at Ascot and as such, Ask is the pick.
Zarkava, would this be a case of you not really believing Ask will win, but as the trends say Ask you are happy to go along with them?
I’ll be honest and say that I felt Ask was overrated before the Coronation Cup and possibly still is. Also a concern that he seemed to have been overlooked quite easily by Ryan Moore.
However, there’s been a fair amount of rain in the area over the past couple of days and he’ll be ridden by Peslier, who’s probably the best jockey around Ascot.
In all honesty though, I’d have difficulty in backing Look Here on a tight circuit and I still feel Conduit hasn’t proven himself properly. The Leger and BC Turf were run at a scorching pace and he did nothing in the Eclipse that he wasn’t entitled to. Very silly price at 7/4. Tartan Bearer lacks a turn of foot and doesn’t get the trip properly IMO.
At least with Ask you’re getting a horse in the form of his life, the best Ascot jockey on-board, his favoured ground (thereabouts, although the ground at Epsom was pretty quick) and a huge price.
Well the Sussex Stakes was a bit of a dodgy race trends wise hence I didn’t put any up. The only really strong one is a top 2 finish LTO which came good. It’s just not a strong race trends wise.
The Goodwood Cup’s a bit easier. Actually many of the trends boil purely down to which races he/she ran in that season. 12 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup and anything that ran outside pattern company earlier in the season is a huge negative. Horses with 5 or more runs that season also have a poor record. There’s no concrete evidence to suggest the more senior horses have it all to do since the only horse aged 10 or above since 1995 to run in this actually won (Persian Punch in 2003).
Horses who ran in the Queen Alexandra have an unbelievably bad record. All 18 were unplaced. A few 3rd, 4ths and 5ths but 0-0-18 speaks volumes.
Aksar Tau, Caracciola, Enroller, Friston Forest, Judgethemoment, Mourilyan, Schiaparelli, The Betchworth Kid and Tungsten Strike are all removed
leaving Centennial as the sole pick
. He also passes the only other trend which says a top 3 finish earlier in the season is a must. His form figures aren’t attractive (267) but 245, 88, 682, 39, 62 and 519 horses have picked this race up in the past 14 years.
Bin Suroor used the Princess of Wales’ last year with Sagara as a stepping stone to a 3rd in this and as such Schiaparelli warrants respect, but he’s a very silly price. Princess of Wales’ runners have finished 28303.
The 2 winners who didn’t run at Royal Ascot were Grey Shot (Sagaro, Yorkshire and Oleander) for Ian Balding (1996) and Royal Rebel (Sagaro, Listed, Curragh Cup, Listed) for Mark Johnston (who has an incredible recent record in this race) in 2000.
I backed Enroller in the Princess and was very sweet on his chances so I oppose him reluctantly.
The Nassau has some extremely strong trends and I’m not expecting any of them to be beaten, unless Rainbow View decides to turn up (I’ve been saying for months that this’ll be her first Group 1 win as a 3yo
).The only 3yos that have won the Nassau either won LTO or were beaten in the Oaks. This only eliminates Nashmiah. Horses who hadn’t won that season have a very poor record with just 4 placed from 28 runners. This takes out Saphira’s Fire, Katiyra and Rainbow View. Similar all 5 once-raced horses were unplaced. Read into that what you want.
The horse must be an established Group 1 runner and as such must have run in a Group 1 LTO. Just 5 of the 32 who didn’t were placed. Say goodbye to Barshiba, Saphira’s Fire (again), High Heeled, Moneycantbuymelove and Nasmiah (again).
So we’re down to just Heaven Sent, Spacious and Midday. Now I’m stuck.
The race doesn’t seem to savour a certain type. Plenty of Oaks and Irish runners have dropped down in distance while similarly several Guineas winners have stepped up.
Anyway, the winner will come from those 3, sorry I can’t be of more help. If I were making a personal choice I’d have to go for Spacious. Heaven Sent doesn’t seem to stay 10f and has always seemed very one-paced in the final 100 yards everytime she’s attempted the trip. Midday has always been staying on extremely strongly in the final furlong of her races and seems to want a trip. This isn’t just 1m 2f, it’s 1m 1f 200 yards and that 20 yards can make a lot of difference. Spacious will love the extra yardage, has the best front-running jockey in the UK on board and has a similar profile to Favourable Terms who won the Windsor Forest, disappointed in the Falmouth and then won here.
This thread is interesting – but your comments regarding Ryan Moore are ludicrous.
You are correct sir.
Well, the trends for August said sod all. Few tiny things here and there but nothing worth going into properly. The tiny fields didn’t help us narrow anything down or get any value. But alas September is here, and with the start of September come 5 Group 1 races.
Starting off in France, the Moulin. 12 of the last 14 winners had previously won a Group 1. Of the 2 who hadn’t, Indian Lodge came nowhere near to winning one previously while Grey Lilas was placed in the Pouliches and Prix de Diane. 11 of the last 14 had also finished in the top 2 on his/her previous start. The 3 who didn’t all finished 6th or 7th. So basically you’re looking for a Group 1 winner who ran very well LTO or ran well below par…
Oiseau de Feu, Proviso, Soneva, Summer Fete, Set Sail, Virtual, Gladiatorus, Balthazaar’s Gift and Famous Name I’m happy to throw out. They’re just not good enough.
I don’t think Aqlaam is good enough to take a competitive event like this. I think he’s a solid Group 2 horse who’ll get placed at Group 1 level. The Summer Mile he won has worked out terribly and on formlines with Goldikova he’s destined to finish behind Elusive Wave.
Mastercraftsman obviously ticks all the boxes but I’m looking to take him on. The form may have worked out extremely nicely but we saw Henry struggle a bit towards the end of his career over this trip when he wanted an extra furlong or so and this chap could easily find himself outpaced towards the end. 4/6 represents no value.
Elusive Wave is the one who remains, and although I’ve been slagging off the French 3yos all year, she doesn’t have much to beat here if Mastercraftsman doesn’t turn up and actually her run behind Goldikova in the D’Astarte puts her way ahead of Aqlaam and Virtual. 5 of the last 14 winners were 3yo fillies and she’ll definitely be a lot fresher than most of them. 6/1 with Blue Square’s a steal IMO.
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The Matron
Well I think it’s quite a nice turn out despite what some people have been saying. I was expecting a lot worse but Heaven Sent, Again and Rainbow View represent a good trio of horses to battle it out at the business end of things.
It’s got only a brief history as a Group 1 but the 2 obvious trends that stand out are 4/5 winners were Group 1 winners and 4/5 had won LTO. Echelon hadn’t won a Group 1 and Attraction had finished 4th in the Hungerford on her return from injury.
None of the 3 fulfill both sets of criteria but Rainbow View is definitely the one for me. This is the time of year that Gosden really starts to pick up Group 1 prizes and the horse will finally have fully developed and caught up with the rest of her age group due to her late foaling date.
Again also has a late foaling date to be fair but she’s likely to want a proper test of stamina in time while Rainbow View is a much speedier type finally getting her preferred ground and is likely to get a decent gallop from Totally Devoted.
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Waste of time even thinking about the Irish Champion until we know what’s going on and even then we won’t know anything but the thought of Fame And Glory or Casual Conquest winning this race makes me sick.
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Sprint Cup trends I’ve not looked at yet, will do on Thursday.
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In the Großer Preis von Baden, Fallon’s on-board Youmzain taking on the best German horses going, Getaway, Wiener Walzer and Kamsin. 5 of the past 14 winners broke their Group 1 duck in this race while just half had won last time out. Of the other 7, 3 were placed with the other 4 well down the field.
Unfortunately this doesn’t help much at all and we can’t rule out anything with confidence on the trends. FWIW I think Wiener Walzer should see this lot off but I’d like to see the ground conditions first. Getaway could easily reverse the placings in their last race with more cut.
Ok, I’ve not done in-depth trends for the Sprint Cup because I can’t really be bothered right now but there are some very clear patterns with the last 14 winners.
11 of the 14 ran in the Nunthorpe, Maurice Gheest or July Cup. Of the 3 who didn’t, Invincible Spirit ran in the Golden Jubilee LTO, Somnus in a Listed race and Tante Rose in a Group 3.
13 of the 14 ran a top 4 finish LTO. The exception, Invincible Spirit, came 6th.
Apply those 2 and there’s only 1 conclusion every single time – Fleeting Spirit. The 5 Sprint Cup winners who ran in the July Cup en route finished 22334 so she’s had pretty much the perfect campaign on the trends for this.
The only possible argument I’d have for another runner is Finjaan, who I’ll confess to having backed already at 7s. He was in the Jubilee and July Cup but didn’t run due to Tregoning’s stable being closed. 1998 winner Tamarisk ran in the 2000 Guineas before winning a Listed race and then finishing 2nd in the July Cup while the other 3 3yo winners had very different profiles. Finjaan finished way down in the Guineas and then won a Group 2, so bar the runner-up spot in a Group 1 sprint he has pretty much the same 3yo profile.
Tamarisk actually finished 2nd in the Dewhurst of 97 behind Xaar, and while Finjaan may not have finished 2nd, he was about 3 centimetres from doing so.
So there you have it, Fleeting Spirit the clear choice with Finjaan a very respectable 2nd pick almost mirroring the profile of 1998 3yo winner Tamarisk.
Re. High Standing, while 3/4 3yo winners since 1995 did run in a Group 1 LTO (July Cup or Maurice Gheest), Somnus didn’t and came via Conditions, Group 3 and Listed events, although his win did come on heavy ground.
Well Regal Parade was a bit of a turn up for the books. The ground was the telling factor and it’s a huge shame that Fleeting Spirit’s won just the 1 Group 1 this year. Finjaan was in trouble about 3 out and probably just didn’t like the ground. Rainbow View was an easy winner and we’ve just got the Moulin to look forward to on the trends for tomorrow.
I thought a look at the Arc was in order given that we’re halfway through the Arc trials. Just the Niel, Foy and Vermeille to go.
The last non-Group 1 winner to win the Arc was Sagamix in 1996 and 12 of the last 14 Arc winners won last time out. The 2 exceptions finished 2nd and 3rd in the Niel, Peintre Celebre and Bago. Finishing in the top 5 on every start is also a necessity and you’d have to go back to the 1930s to find a winner aged older than 5.
Spanish Moon, Conduit, Vision D’Etat, Sea The Stars, Stacelita and Cavalryman are the 6 who remain. The latter 2 I can’t have at all. Cavalryman has beaten trees and Leger hopefuls while Stacelita has beaten trash cans.
I’m not sure what to think of Spanish Moon. He’s clearly progressed a lot this year and won a Group 1 that’s produced a Group 1 winner from the runner-up, albeit the inaugural running of the prize. He’s entered in the Foy along with Vision D’Etat.
Conduit I don’t know about. Is Stoute training him for the Arc or for the Breeders’ Cup Turf?
But Sea The Stars is the obvious horse and obvious choice. If he runs in the Arc, he will it. It’s just a question of whether he will run in it or not.
I fear that if he doesn’t run in it, we’ll be looking at what’ll probably be the worst Arc since 1996.
Well, Oxx has confirmed that Sea The Stars goes for the Arc.
2/1 with Boyles, Coral and Stan James. I take absolutely no pleasure in tipping a 2/1 favourite but fill your boots, he’ll win it comfortably.
I might as well do the St. Leger trends given that nothing major will be withdrawn.
nb. I’ve eliminated Rockhampton and Von Jawlensky already.
Only 1 of the past 14 winners didn’t run in a Derby or the King Edward. Nedawi in 1998. This eliminates Changingoftheguard and Above Average.
Horses that ran over further than 12f don’t have a good winning record – 27 ran, 7 placed. This removes Mastery, Changingoftheguard (again) and Kite Wood.
Either the Gordon Stakes, Grand Prix de Paris and Great Voltigeur has been the prep used by all of the past 14 winners and I can’t see that changing. Kite Wood (again), Changingoftheguard (again) and Mourayan are removed.
This leaves us with just Father Time and Age of Aquarius.
On a personal level, I can’t see Age of Aquarius getting beaten. Father Time’s full-sister Passage of Time barely got 12f and all season Cecil has said that we’ll see a better horse with cut. Well at this rate it’s going to be firm to hard, concrete in places on Saturday and that suits Age of Aquarius right down to the ground.
It may possibly be worth having a small saver on Mourayan. Bollin Eric and Brian Boru in 2000 and 2001 both won the Leger after not having won a race all season.
p.s. I should of course add Monitor Closely to the equation. He didn’t run in a Derby or the King Edward and I find it extremely difficult that a horse with sire and damsire dosage figures adding up to 16.0 can possibly stay 1m 6 1/2f.
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