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Exactly – The Derby is a cracking race for winners of trials LTO, but Guineas runners-up with middle distance profiles (a-la New Approach) clearly cannot be dismissed out of hand and demand further thought.
Is there any strength to atheory that horses simply benefit mentally from avtually winning races though? A lot of trainers seem to believe so, so it is worthwhile factor maybe
Personally I believe winning form is vital. If there were a Group 1 tomorrow with just 2 runners – 1 had finished 2nd in 3 Group 1s in a row and the other had won 3 Listed races in a row , I’d back the Listed horse in a shot.
Would you back a three time AW listed mile winner at kempton say against Delegator then?
But Delegator didn’t finish 2nd in the Irish Guineas
Honestly a perfect example of this (and of after-timing) is Halfway to Heaven in the Sun Chariot. God knows how Darjina was such a short-price fav. She’d finished 2nd 4 times in a row that season.
4 of the last 6 Golden Jubilee winners had run in the King’s Stand and only 1 likely runner on Saturday ran on Tuesday – Cannonball. Another Wesley Ward horse, he finished 6th in the King’s Stand and stayed on really well at the end. Back over 6f he’ll be in his element. Got on at 33s earlier with Paddy Power, they’re now 20s but 33s with many others.
Interesting shout Z, was warming to it but this is a white-hot renewal and I think he’s got a lot to find myself.
A friend was asking me about handicaps earlier and I was reading some interesting stuff in the Racing Post earlier so thought I’d have a look at the 2 today.
In the Britannia, you want a top 3 finish LTO, a horse that didn’t run in a maiden LTO and an OR over 90 (6 of the last 7 rated 91+).
These leave us with 6 horses. Deadly Secret was beaten by Roman Republic LTO and looks exposed. Ffrench has plumped for Roman Republic and left Dettori on Crackdown so I’m happy leaving Crackdown out, especially given the way Dettori’s riding.
Hyades has been run over 10f+ twice in 4 starts and that’s not something you want to see in a 30-runner handicap. You need speed for this and he doesn’t look like having enough. Same goes for River Captain.
So Desert Creek & Roman Republic are left. Moore doesn’t have a great record at Royal Ascot and Roman Republic was nominated by Johnston as his horse to follow for the season so I’m happy plumping for the latter.
Similar story for the King George Handicap. A top 3 start LTO is vital. You’re also looking for a horse rated between 87 and 93. Opinion Poll I can’t touch with Dettori on-board, Barwell Bridge has had too many starts this year (I’m being harsh, I know, but he has had more than 4 starts this year) and Topolski looks the Mark Johnston second-string. Also John Egan rides and that ain’t good for Royal Ascot.
Brunston and Polly’s Mark remain, but if you lower the OR mark by 1, you get Zarinski, a John Oxx 3yo. Oxx has a fantastic record with his 3yos at the meeting (38% from 16 runners) and it’s quite telling that he’s brought him here with no other starts since April.
So if Brunston or Polly’s Mark wins, I’ll be frustrated but Zarinski looks well-handicapped.
I dont get your comment -its no coincidence that I’ve posted virtually nothing -I only registered yesterday
.People are allowed to read the comments on this forum without actually posting -I chose to respond to what appeared to be a nasty little dig that no one was taking any note of this thread they are -and by the looks of it now ,so are you….The trends told you, 1st and 2nd. More than one race this season and must have won. Only 2 were left, although I threw out the winner since Bin Suroor trains her
Well the trends have done very well this week, but unfortunately on 3 occasions there were 2 horses remaining and I picked the wrong ‘un.
Queen Anne – Paco Boy 1st (Gladiatorus 8th)
St. James’ – Delegator 2nd (Mastercraftsman 1st)
Coventry – Red Jazz 7th (Canford Cliffs 1st)Windsor Forest – Heaven Sent 2nd (this was purely down to the trainer and not any trends)
Prince of Wales’ – Vision D’Etat 1st
Queen Mary – Misheer (Ceedwell & Capercaillie) 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectivelyRibblesdale – Flame of Gibraltar 2nd (Flying Cloud 1st)
The Friday and Saturday don’t offer many betting opportunities for the races I like to bet in, but there are still 3 races – the Coronation Stakes, the Hardwicke and the Golden Jubilee.
The ground is good to firm and there’s no chance of rain, so we can immediately rule out Again and Lahaleeb, and given that the ground conditions are extremely similar to how they were on 1000 Guineas day, I’m happy to eliminate Rainbow View as well.
Nashmiah & Baliyana both ran outside of Group 1 company LTO so they’re overlooked, while French Guineas winners have done poorly. 6 ran in the past 14 years and 0 won, although 4 were placed. I don’t think Elusive Wave is a good winner and I’m happy to oppose.
1000 Guineas winners have also done poorly and only Russian Rhythm and Attraction won who were both super fillies. You have to wonder when a 81-rated filly wins a 1000 Guineas and I wonder if they didn’t just give her an easy time of things in front. Also given the amount of pace on here – I count at least 3 front-runners – this’ll certainly count against her.
For some ridiculous reason Chintz is still left on the trends but she’s obviously nowhere near good enough to win this. I wonder if she’s not a pacemaker to make sure Again gets a proper stamina test.
Heart Shaped is the one left on the trends. She ran in the first 2 races that Lush Lashes ran in last year and has followed a very similar pattern of those who ran well in a trial, ran well in a Guineas and then won here. Indian Ink, Maids Causeway and Exclusive the best examples. Actually Lush Lashes is a good example too, minus her runs in the Musidora & Oaks.
It’s a worry that O’Brien is 1-1-12 in this race, but he does have a superb record with 3yos at Ascot. She’ll be getting the fast ground she wants and this stiff mile will suit her. Her sire Storm Cat is responsible for (at least) 3 other 3yo Group 1s at Ascot for O’Brien (Giant’s Causeway, Black Minnaloushe & Sophisticat) and represents phenomenal each-way value at 16/1. Personally I can’t understand why she’s not a 8/1 3rd favourite.
I’ve touched upon the Golden Jubilee a few times in this thread, and I think the main trend is that 4 of the last 6 winners ran in the King’s Stand. Preps over 5f (bar the King’s Stand), Duke of York runners and horses who hadn’t run in a Group 1 the season before are all negatives. You also don’t want a prep over 7f or a mile.
Cannonball hasn’t run in a Group 1 (aside the King’s Stand) but I’m happy to overlook that since he’s an American runner. JJ the Jet Plane has a huge chance, as does Sacred Kingdom but I worry about him. Hong Kong sprinters are rarely still in training by this stage of the season and all 14 horses who ran outside the British Isles LTO were beaten.
Not many trends to go on for the Hardwicke, but you want a horse who ran in a Group race LTO and horses carrying penalties are a negative. A top 3 finish LTO is vital. They don’t rule out many but going purely on form many of these are up against it and some of them want cut. Doctor Fremantle has great form on quick ground and over the trip and should ensure Stoute continues his great recent record in this.
Have had a quick look at the Wokingham and it’s actually an interesting race. Paid close to no attention to it over the past few years but it’s a nice puzzle to try and solve. Please note that 2003 was a dead heat so there are technically 11 winners over the past 10 years. Baltic King also profited from a truly disgraceful Spencer ride on Firenze (didn’t have a penny on) and he messes up a lot of trends, so I’m happy to call his victory a blot.
You want a 4 or 5yo, an OR between 87 and 102 and a top 3 finish LTO. I see no issue extending that to top 4 or 5 as long as the distance between the 3rd was minimal, a neck at most. 30 runners carried penalties – Ratio & Fayr Jag both did in 2003 when they dead heated and another was placed in 2006, but the other 27 were all unplaced. Ratio, Fayr Jag & the 2nd (Firenze) all proved to be Group class performers, so I see no issue backing a horse carrying a penalty as long as you think he/she could be a Group class horse.
Sohraab, Jimmy Styles, High Standing and Roker Park are the 4 that remain. The latter 3 carry 5lb penalties.
I don’t think Roker Park is a potential Group class horse so I can overlook him. I also worry about Ryan Moore on board High Standing. He’s been riding very poorly all week, even when winning on top of Glass Harmonium.
Sohraab & Jimmy Styles are the 2 that remain. I don’t think Sohraab is anywhere near good enough and Jimmy Styles is an extremely progressive horse with a CD win at Ascot. I hate even considering choosing the favourite in a handicap like this but he matches the profile of a lot of winners and has the plum draw in stall 1.
The ground is good to firm and there’s no chance of rain, so we can immediately rule out Again and Lahaleeb, and given that the ground conditions are extremely similar to how they were on 1000 Guineas day, I’m happy to eliminate Rainbow View as well.
Nashmiah & Baliyana both ran outside of Group 1 company LTO so they’re overlooked, while French Guineas winners have done poorly. 6 ran in the past 14 years and 0 won, although 4 were placed. I don’t think Elusive Wave is a good winner and I’m happy to oppose.
1000 Guineas winners have also done poorly and only Russian Rhythm and Attraction won who were both super fillies. You have to wonder when a 81-rated filly wins a 1000 Guineas and I wonder if they didn’t just give her an easy time of things in front. Also given the amount of pace on here – I count at least 3 front-runners – this’ll certainly count against her.
For some ridiculous reason Chintz is still left on the trends but she’s obviously nowhere near good enough to win this. I wonder if she’s not a pacemaker to make sure Again gets a proper stamina test.
Heart Shaped is the one left on the trends. She ran in the first 2 races that Lush Lashes ran in last year and has followed a very similar pattern of those who ran well in a trial, ran well in a Guineas and then won here. Indian Ink, Maids Causeway and Exclusive the best examples. Actually Lush Lashes is a good example too, minus her runs in the Musidora & Oaks.
It’s a worry that O’Brien is 1-1-12 in this race, but he does have a superb record with 3yos at Ascot. She’ll be getting the fast ground she wants and this stiff mile will suit her. Her sire Storm Cat is responsible for (at least) 3 other 3yo Group 1s at Ascot for O’Brien (Giant’s Causeway, Black Minnaloushe & Sophisticat) and represents phenomenal each-way value at 16/1. Personally I can’t understand why she’s not a 8/1 3rd favourite.
Well I’ve been very guilty of underestimating Ghanaati and she’s clearly very high class. Heart Shaped came with a big run but just didn’t get home. The last 7 Coronation Stakes winners ran in the 1000 Guineas so that appears an extremely strong trend. In addition to that, we’ve had 3 1000 Guineas forecasts and 2 1000 Guineas tricasts.
It’s worrying how bad O’Brien’s record at Ascot is with fillies. Heart Shaped, Rumplestiltskin, You’resothrilling & Lille Langtry have all been short-priced losers in the Queen Mary & Albany, while his Coronation Stakes record is 1-1-13. His 7 runners in the Ribblesdale are 0-2-5.
Well I’m really quite gutted. With the exception of Heart Shaped and Red Jazz, every horse has finished 1st or 2nd.
Queen Anne – Paco Boy 1st (Gladiatorus 8th)
St. James’ – Delegator 2nd (Mastercraftsman 1st)
Coventry – Red Jazz 7th (Canford Cliffs 1st)Windsor Forest – Heaven Sent 2nd (this was purely down to the trainer and not any trends)
Prince of Wales’ – Vision D’Etat 1st
Queen Mary – Misheer 2nd (Ceedwell 3rd & Capercaillie 4th)Ribblesdale – Flame of Gibraltar 2nd (Flying Cloud 1st)
Coronation – Heart Shaped 6th
Golden Jubilee – Cannonball 2nd (J J the Jet Plane 4th)
2 lessons to learn from this week IMO.
1 – Ryan Moore is not a top class jockey. I don’t blame him at all for Heaven Sent getting beaten, but all week he has ridden terribly. He produced a cracker on Perfect Stride, but had absolutely no control over Glass Harmonium whatsoever. No problem backing him in Group 3s or Listed contests, but he’s just not good enough at the top level. His 5 wins at Royal Ascot over the past 5 years have been in the Group 3 Queen’s Vase and 4 handicaps.
2 – There IS a bias for the stands’ rail and for those way off the pace. Up the straight course, all bar 4 horses hugged the rail and many of them came from miles back.
High Standing’s just won from 28 in the Wokingham but I think this is down to the jockeys not being decisive enough. I think they think the stands’ rail is where the bias is and they’ve kind of left that go to their heads.
The same thing happened when the new course was originally opened. Everyone said that the course had a stands’ rail bias and then one day the far side had an extremely comfortable 1st and 2nd.
Forgotten Voice stall 1, Moneycantbuymelove stall 4, Fareer came from 15 but hugged the rail, Gigantus stall 4.
Windsor Palace (22 ran) – 16 – 2 – 4 – 5. Will happily put this down to the American horse being gifted a lead.
Jersey (16 ran) – 3 – 6 – 9 – 8. Favourite came from 16 and finished last.
Hunt Cup (25 ran) – 1 – 5 – 4 – 21
Sandringham (19 ran) – 4 – 3 – 7 – 19
Britannia (30 ran) – 15 – 13 – 30 – 29 (All finished in a line, strong evidence to suggest no bias)
Buck Palace (29 ran) – 4 – 2 – 10 – 7
Chesham (16 ran) – 11 – 4 – 8 – 9 (The 2nd was given a very poor ride)
Wokingham (26 ran) – 28 – 27 – 25 – 8
Interesting that the 2 races over 6f had a winner from a high draw given the size of their fields.
Will go back to the last few years later on and have a look.
Sohraab, Jimmy Styles, High Standing and Roker Park are the 4 that remain. The latter 3 carry 5lb penalties.
I don’t think Roker Park is a potential Group class horse so I can overlook him. I also worry about Ryan Moore on board High Standing. He’s been riding very poorly all week, even when winning on top of Glass Harmonium.
Well, the Eclipse.
Winning form and a previous Group 1 win are absolutely vital.
This removes all but Cima De Triomphe and Sea The Stars. I can however forgive Conduit’s defeat by a ridiculously small margin, so I don’t mind including him.
However, you’d have to go back to 1998 to find a middle-distance horse to win this race, and as such I just can’t believe that Conduit will have anything like the required pace for this.
Horses who finished top 6 in the Derby don’t have a great record, although few have tried. However, Compton Admiral and Hawk Wing were both victorious after running both Classics.
Trends favour older horses ever so slightly and Cima De Triomphe EW at 12s is infinitely better value than Sea The Stars odds-on.
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