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Well it all went horribly round with Feels All Right last week, even if the connections did resort to mind boggling tactics with him.
Just 12 runners go to post for the Prix de Diane later today with the favourite Stacelita coming here off the back of a win in the Group 1 Prix de Saint Alary. However, winners of that race have a dire record with just 1 win and 2 places from the last 10 runners, and the winner was at 2/5. She was however unbeaten and had had 4 career starts, so if Stacelita wins it won’t be a huge shock, especially given the form of Rouget & Lemaire, but I think it’s worth opposing her.
9 of the last 11 winners had won last time out, with Bright Sky beaten in the Saint Alary and Confidential Lady beaten in the Irish 1000. This keeps Denomination, Celimene and Eclair de Lune in. The former can be immediately removed since she finished outside the top 3 on one of his career starts.
Celimene and Eclair de Lune pass all the trends, but it’s still difficult to be confident against Stacelita. I think the best thing to do is a combination forecast with the 3 and a bit of each-way money on Celimene.
Well no success in the French Oaks, but I think my approach was sensible. Celimene finished 4th (I thought she was actually Plumania so thought I’d won place money) and a length away from 3rd.
Ascot needs to come to the trends’ rescue, but I have to say that it doesn’t look promising.
The Queen Anne is a nightmare. The horse must have won a Group 1. That trend alone leaves us with just Gladiatorus and Paco Boy. Neither of them pass any of the other trends, although a couple of those are quite thin.
3 of the last 5 winners were Lockinge also-rans, but Bin Suroor doesn’t fire many bullets in this race and generally they’re very accurate. Bin Suroor’s form has been extremely dodgy in the past fortnight and Paco Boy’s profile does resemble that of a Queen Anne winner so I’m going to stick with him.
The King’s Stand has no trends since this is only the 2nd running as a Group 1.
The St. James’ is quite easy. You want a horse who ran in the Poulains or both the English and Irish Guineas. Just 2 of the last 14 winners hadn’t and that was when the Jean Prat came before this race, which both exceptions ran in.
So it’s down to Mastercraftsman or Delegator. O’Brien fires a fair number of bullets in this race and isn’t always successful. It may be worth siding with Delegator given that he looked much better suited to the ground in the 2000 Guineas.
I went over the Coventry a couple of weeks ago but what the hell. You’re basically looking for something unbeaten or coming off the back of 2 wins with a RPR of at least 95. Canford Cliffs & Red Jazz are the remaining two.
Hannon’s had 6 runners in this since it became a Group 2 – Major Cadeaux 2nd and the other 5 unplaced. Barry Hills has fired just the 3 bullets resulting in a winner – Red Clubs – and two unplaced. Red Jazz, like Red Clubs, is coming off the back of 2 wins, albeit unbeaten, but I like his chances and I doubt whether Hannon’s horses are up to winning a race like this.
The Jersey’s a total nightmare, wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole. The Windsor Forest’s been around for 5 years but haven’t done trends yet. However, Stoute has a phenomenal record in the race with his best contender. 2 wins (the first 2 runnings), 2 2nds and a 5th. Heaven Sent was beaten by a subsequent Group 1 winner last year and I reckon she’ll go one place better.
The Prince of Wales’ is another extremely poor renewal. You want a Group 1 winner – Never On Sunday, Vision D’Etat, Estejo and Virtual are left. You want something that finished in the top 3 LTO and that ran in a Group 1 LTO – those only rule out Estejo.
All 9 winners since it became a Group 1 were established Group 1 horses and as such they’d all run in at least 2 Group 1s and those who hadn’t have struggled. Both Virtual & Never On Sunday didn’t run in any last year and made their Group 1 debuts this season. Vision D’Etat ran in the Prix du Jockey Club & Arc, and as such he’s the pick.
The Queen Mary is actually one of the stronger races for the meeting. 10 of the 15 placed horses had won last time out – last year none of them had strangely enough. Anyway, I’m happy to roll with winning form, but you’re also looking for a RPR upwards of 90; Capercaillie, Ceedwell, Crown, Don’t Tell Mary & Misheer.
Hilary Needler horses have a dire record – all 8 unplaced, including 3 unbeaten market leaders. Don’t Tell Mary happily overlooked. 4 of the 5 winners had had 2 or 3 runs – only Gilded for Richard Hannon hadn’t, but Crown has a very different profile to her.
Capercaillie, Ceedwell & Misheer remain. The Marygate’s produced 2 of the 5 winners with the Swordlestown producing another so Pattern form is a bonus and as such, Misheer is the pick.
The Norfolk’s a strange race this year, presumably because of Monsieur Chevalier. None of the horses on the trends are entered. Rather predictably the 2 closest on the trends are Love Lockdown and Monsieur Chevalier.
The Ribblesdale looks very open and the trends could get beaten quite comfortably since many horses who were injured or ran disappointingly in Oaks Trials are entered at the moment. You want a horse who ran in the Oaks or finished in the top 2 LTO, had had at least 2 starts that season and had won a race within her last 2 runs. Flame of Gibraltar’s the only one but I’d be wary, especially of Leocorno given her injury problems.
The Gold Cup is a total mess this year. Something’s going to get broken for sure. You want a horse who won LTO and is younger than 8 – Hindu Kush remains…2 of the 4 winners who hadn’t won LTO were placed so I’d look for one of those instead. Tastahill, Veracity & Patkai are in there now, but Sagaro runners have a shocking record, horses with 4+ runs that season have a poor record + Veracity has run in both the Yorkshire Cup and a handicap this season, both big negatives. It really is impossible no matter which way you look at it.
The Albany’s impossible to look at at the moment and the King Edward just isn’t a race for the trends at all.
Queen Anne – Paco Boy 1st (Gladiatorus 8th)
St. James’ – Delegator 2nd (Mastercraftsman 1st)
Coventry – Red Jazz nowhere (Canford Cliffs 1st)Windsor Forest – Heaven Sent
Prince of Wales’ – Vision D’Etat
Queen Mary – Misheer (Ceedwell & Capercaillie)Ribblesdale – Flame of Gibraltar
Well thank god, a much better day. Paco Boy ensured a profit for the day, while picking the 2nd horse on the trends in the St. James’ & Coventry would have given you two further winners.
I’m going purely on trainer form for Heaven Sent in the Windsor Forest, while Vision D’Etat is a clear trends pick. Misheer is one of the 3 horses on the trends but preference for her since she has Listed form. Personally I don’t agree and I think Capercaillie has a better chance.
Do you ever get the feeling that you are talking to yourself ?
My useful addition is that trends are a complete and utter waste of time and energy unless there is a acceptable explanation behind them. At face value…they are valueless
which may be why you are talking to yourself….
If you don’t agree with them, fine, but I ask that you don’t post pointless rubbish. Why would people reply to them anyway? They don’t exactly stimulate debate ffs. I don’t use trends unless there’s a reason for their existence.
Happy?
Having been a long standing reader of this forum, I feel the need to post in reply to the comment made by clivexx as he is way wide of the mark-I read certain threads on here daily and find them invaluable in working out my selections -I cant recall reading anything worthwhile posted by clivexx but maybe he just flits about posting negative crap-Either way please keep up your efforts as you well know you are not talking to yourself!
Have to agree with above; it’s my day off today and looking forward to this afternoons racing as I missed some of yesterday due to a prior commitment. I’m not having any bets today as I’m still relatively new to flat racing, but reading the trends analysis will make this afternoon’s racing even more interesting. No one has forced me to read it, but I’m glad that people put the time and effort into putting forward their views.
I’m a firm believer in trends being a useful factor in deciding on a selection – i personally find this thread interesting reading.
I’ve just taken another look at the Coronation Stakes. I’m opposing all 3 Guineas winners (Ghanaati & Elusive Wave based on the records of 1000 & Pouliches winners and Again based on the ground).
Baliyana, Nashmiah & Reggane didn’t run in a Group LTO so they’re removed and this leaves us with Chintz, Heart Shaped, Lahaleeb & Rainbow View. Chintz is obviously just not up to the task and is the Coolmore 3rd string. I wonder about Lahaleeb on good ground and I’m finding it very difficult to pick between Heart Shaped & Rainbow View, although I’m leaning towards Heart Shaped.
I think the ground will make all the difference so I’ll come back to these 3 on Thursday evening/Friday morning, but Heart Shaped EW at 20s is a bet that I’d put nobody off.
Well the trends were perfect with Vision D’Etat but I’m seriously annoyed about the Windsor Forest. I did trends based purely on the 5 winners and only 1 of them had won LTO – Sabana Perdida. The other 4 were 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a Group 1 or a F&M Group race. Spacious had the perfect profile for the race but I couldn’t touch her since she was such a dodgepot beforehand. Urgh.
Thanks for the nudge on the % at RA the two sites look like they have not been updated, changed that around today and Spacious fit the profile nicely
No problem, happy to help. You really need to stop having an opinion when you do trends!
You really need to stop having an opinion when you do trends
? ? ? do not understand this ?
Well I’ve never liked Spacious at all, never rated her and thought she was a total dog. But on the trends she had the perfect profile for the race but it was my own opinion of her that put me off her.
Well….i would like someone to explain why trends without explanation are anything other than a completely one dimensional method of selecting winners
Unless there is an understanding of the reasoning behind these so called "trends" then they are of no interest
Its the equivalent of reading form by the pure placing of the horse without looking at the race itself
Take for instance the familiar "won last time out" stat. Makes no sense to me at all. A close second in a grp one say is hardly going to be trumped by a narrow listed win is it?
Jonah…and its no coincidence that you have posted virtually nothing at all?
Dont take it personally Zarakava, but I think its always worthwhile questioning and examining the value of the more fringe criteria for selecting (speed figures, trends, jockey form). What you leave out is as important as what you leave in
And certain trends (good example would be trainer preferences..) ahave a very worthwhile logic
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