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If Septimus was ever given his chance in the gold cup….he could start 2 mins after the rest and still win…
I would like to add my thanks. As a relative novice it’s very encouraging to find this analysis. Please continue.
Well there are no ante-post prices at the moment for the Prince of Wales’, and the trends pick (Goldikova) has been taken out of the Queen Anne, so thought I’d take a look at the Golden Jubilee.
4 of the 7 Golden Jubilee winners since it became a Group 1 (you can forget the inaugural running, they always showed skewed data, so 4 of the last 6) had run in the King’s Stand en route. You’re also looking for a horse that ran in a Group 1 the previous season. There’s no age trend and you can rule out all Duke of York runners.
So we’re left with 6 horses; Diabolical, Fleeting Spirit, Ialysos, Kingsgate Native, Marchand D’Or and Scenic Blast.
Personally I don’t touch Godolphin horses so I certainly couldn’t be touching Diabolical. He also didn’t run in the King’s Stand last year so I’d say it’s unlikely he’ll run in it this year.
I’ve not seen Ialysos’ victory today but a neck victory over 5f doesn’t scream Golden Jubilee winner to me. He also seems way too fast (5f in 54 secs) to get 6f.
Scenic Blast’s form in Australia hasn’t been working out particularly well and also Aussie sprinters aged over 4 haven’t run well. Choisir was 4 when winning and 7 have failed since; Takeover Target three times, Miss Andretti, Magnus and Glamour Puss. And actually Takeover Target performed infinitely better than the other 3.
Fleeting Spirit is definitely a horse I’d consider backing. She might not have been ready last year and performed admirably in the L’Abbaye + BC Turf Sprint. She’ll definitely get 6f but she strikes me as quite an injury prone horse for some reason.
Kingsgate Native + Marchand D’Or are the 2 remaining horses. The latter’s looked a shadow of himself on his final 3 starts and couldn’t confidently back him ante-post. The former looks to have a big-shout of retaining his Golden Jubilee crown, but let’s see what’s down to run in the King’s Stand before committing myself to a runner, but my 2 against the field at the moment look to be Fleeting Spirit + Kingsgate Native.
Marchand D’Or’s been beaten again and Ialysos will swerve the King’s Stand and go straight to the Jubilee says Cumani’s wife.
The Jubilee really does look to be between Fleeting Spirit and Kingsgate Native on the trends. I’ll take a price about FS before the King’s Stand (want to make sure she’s declared first) since I think she’s capable of winning the race, but Kingsgate Native flopped dreadfully in it first time out last year so I think I’ll back him after the King’s Stand.
Coronation Cup
As well as 3 Classics in 3 days, we have the first 12f Group 1 of the season on Friday at Epsom, although the quality is as bad as the race usually produces. There are 6 Group 1 winners in the field, although I expect to see Casual Conquest and Scintillo removed to make it 4. In all fairness the last time we had 4 Group 1 winners in the Coronation Cup field was 2004, but it’s still a poor field in terms of which Group 1s were won.
In the past 14 years, only 3 runnings weren’t won by previous Group 1 winners. Daliapour in 2000 (only 1 previous Group 1 winner was in the field and he was both dreadful and over the hill), Warrsan in 2003 (turned out to be an Epsom specialist) and Yeats in 2005 (injury robbed him of the Derby and without doubt several other races).
Eastern Anthem has rejoined Godolphin after winning the Sheema. Given his record with Godolphin before flying out to Dubai, you’d be a brave man to back him. He’s also already had 3 runs these season and I’m really not sure how good that Sheema was.
Frozen Fire won a rather silly Irish Derby after performing very poorly at Epsom. He’s already an extremely inconsistent horse, running well and then running badly. And if his run at Chester was running well, lord knows what to expect on Friday.
Almost 3 years separate Youmzain from his last victory and his second-last victory with several good placed efforts in-between. He’s such an unreliable horse and I couldn’t even consider backing him.
And the 4th Group 1 winner, Look Here. Her Oaks win looked too good to be true at the time and I think there’s a reason for that. She’s an Epsom specialist. There’s no other reason how she could possibly improve that much in 3 weeks. She goes well fresh and I think at the 7/1 mark (Betfair) she makes for a fantastic bet. St. Leger winners have an excellent record in the race and while she didn’t win it, she still finished 3rd which is still a great omen.
I wouldn’t be so sure about Look Now being an Epsom specialist. You might get your fingers burnt at some stage during the season.
I’d put it more down to fillies being inconsistent.
Look here hasn’t run a bad race in her life if you ask me.
Done for toe at Lingfield and her Leger 3rd is probably as good as her Oaks win or within a few lbs. A searching 1m4f on decent ground is what she wants.
I’ve not seen Ialysos’ victory today but a neck victory over 5f doesn’t scream Golden Jubilee winner to me. He also seems way too fast (5f in 54 secs) to get 6f.
He gave the rest of the field a multiple length headstart, that bad I stopped bothering about the race, to come back and win from where he was, was outstanding, he looked a 6f horse on that evidence and Cumanihas said the race is the main aim,
The worry is he seems to idle, he caught Hoh Hoh Hoh in breackneck speed then seemed to nearly stop, he looks like a Marchand D’Or type ride.
Just been looking through AOB’s record in the Epsom Derby.
1998 – 3 runners. All unplaced.
1999 – 1 runner. Saffron Walden. Unplaced.
2000 – 1 runner. Our Aristotle. Unplaced.
2001 – 1 runner. Galileo 1st.
2002 – 3 runners. High Chaparral 1st, Hawk Wing 2nd + 1 pacemaker unplaced.
2003 – 4 runners. The Great Gatsby 2nd, other 3 unplaced.
2004 – 1 runner. Meath (would have been pacemaker) unplaced. (Yeats robbed via injury, surely would have won comfortably)
2005 – 4 runners. 1 pacemaker. All unplaced.
2006 – 4 runners. Dylan Thomas 3rd, other 3 unplaced.
2007 – 8 runners. Eagle Mountain 2nd, other 7 unplaced.
2008 – 6 runners, all unplaced.
So his 2 Derby wins have come when he’s had 1 and 3 runners. Yeats in 2004 would have been 2 runners. In 2003, 05, 06, 07 and 08 he played the numbers game and managed just 3 placed runners.
This could be blown out of the water on Saturday since it does look to be O’Brien’s best group of horses he’s sent to the Derby in years, but interesting nonetheless.
This is a similar situation to Willie Mullins in the Champion Bumper. I lose count of how many times he’s won it (6?), but the majority of those wins has come when he’s had just the 1 runner.
Also a concern for myself and other Black Bear Island backers and fans that Freemantle is swerving the race and going to the Group 2 at Ascot.
I only realized a couple of days ago that Aiden O’Brien ran 9 horses in the 2007 Derby, which then made me wonder about this year, especially when out of those 9 they only had a second with Eagle Mountain.I don’t know who the other horses were and what they went on to achieve.
The Prix du Jockey Club’s on Sunday and the entries are out. Parthenon’s due to be supplemented so I’ll add him as well.
1 alwaary usa m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 000 HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM J. GOSDEN 35.435
2 le havre (ire) m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 480 GERARD AUGUSTIN-NORMAND JC. ROUGET (S) 146.940
3 silver frost (ire) m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 505 JOHN-DAWSON COTTON Y.DE NICOLAY 420.735
4 SET SAIL IRE M.PS. 3 ans 58 000 D.SMITH/M.TABOR/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O’BRIEN 35.565
5 drumbeat ire m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 505 D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O’BRIEN 179.602
6 topclas m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 485 MICHEL DEBEUSSCHER P. DEMERCASTEL 81.4007 vesuve (ire) m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 475 ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 52.900
8 wajir m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 500 ECURIE WILDENSTEIN E. LELLOUCHE 150.050
9 gallilei m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 490 FAMILLE MOUSSAC A.DE ROYER DUPRE 41.350
10 guest ville m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 485 GROWTHWORK S.A.R.L. MLLE SV. TARROU (S) 51.550
11 zafisio ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 505 H. DOWNS/D. LOONEY R. CURTIS 228.222
12 fuisse m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 485 ALEC HEAD MME C. HEAD-MAAREK 94.025
13 GLAMSTAR M.PS. 3 ans 58 460 GERARD LABOUREAU JC. ROUGET (S) 46.500
14 westphalia ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 000 M.TABOR/D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER AP. O’BRIEN 359.206
15 malibu bay usa m.ps. 3 ans P1 58 000 MME MAGNIER/M.TABOR/D.SMITH AP. O’BRIEN 19.097
16 calvados blues m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 480 MALCOLM PARRISH P. DEMERCASTEL 99.800
17 feels all right ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 500 PEGASUS FARMS LTD E. LIBAUD 96.875
18 crowded house gb m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 000 REDDAM/MME BURRELL/HARVEY BJ. MEEHAN 442.904
19 sea the stars ire m.ps. 3 ans P2 58 000 CHRISTOPHER TSUI J. OXX 350.021
20 parthenon gb m.ps. 3 ansMy trends for this only go back 4 runnings. The distance was changed for the 2004 running to 1m 2 1/2f, but the data it provides is almost the complete opposite of what the 05, 06, 07 and 08 races gave.
Winning last time out has been an extremely important factor, and just 1 horse who didn’t was placed in the 4 races. This rules out a multitude of runners;
Le Havre, Set Sail, Drumbeat, Crowded House, Malibu Bay, Westphalia, Gallilei, Glamstar, Zafisio, Guest Ville, Vesuve and Topclas (all in italics).
You also want a fairly unexposed horse, one with 4 or 5 career runs. Those with more or less are;
Silver Frost, Drumbeat, Malibu Bay (2), Westphalia, Gallilei (3), Glamstar (3), Zafisio, Vesuve, Topclas, Alwaary (3), Wajir, Fuisse and Calvados Blues (all in bold).
This leaves just 3 runners; Feels All Right, Sea The Stars + Parthenon.
Sea The Stars can obviously be taken out. I presume he’s been left in on the off-chance that it comes up soft on Saturday.
Parthenon won a Listed contest at Hamilton but it looked a very poor contest and he was able to dictate things from the front. He’s probably a stone below what he needs to be to win this.
Feels All Right finished 3rd in the Criterium de Saint Cloud behind Fame and Glory + Age of Aquarius. Obviously that form’s worked out pretty well. He’ll have Mendizabal on-board, one of the most underrated jockeys in the world and has pretty much the ideal profile for the race since he comes into it unbeaten off the back of a Listed contest. He’s won at the course and over 10f (1/2f shorter than this) and is a cracking bet at 9/2.
Also a concern for myself and other Black Bear Island backers and fans that Freemantle is swerving the race and going to the Group 2 at Ascot.
Zarkava, has that been confirmed? I thought (hoped) they may send him to the Eclipse?
Aidan said he’d probably be going to Ascot, so I presume the King Edward would be the target.
Well the trends are doing ok so far but there’s been nothing at a really great price so far which is pretty disappointing.
Irish 2000 Guineas winner @ 6/4, Irish 1000 Guineas runner-up @ 11/2, Coronation Cup 3rd @ 9/2 and the 1st, 4th and PU in the Oaks @ 9/4, 3/1 and 10/1 respectively.
The Derby’s an extremely strong race for the trends and they don’t throw up a selection if you apply them all. The 2 closest are Gan Amhras and Fame and Glory, both breaking 1 trend. Gan Amhras hasn’t won one of his last 2 starts which I’m inclined to forgive since he dropped down in trip to run in the Goffs Million and couldn’t pick up off a slow pace.
Fame and Glory didn’t have his debut at a Group 1 track – High Chaparral didn’t either, but also the last 3 placed horses in the Derby for Ballydoyle hadn’t. If he does place/win, that could be a nice little trend.
Sea The Stars is 3rd choice, breaking the foaling dates trend and by having won a Guineas. I really don’t think he’ll stay for a second either. All the middle-distance runners Cape Cross has had have been fillies and if you take away Galileo, Urban Sea’s progeny have a pretty poor record over 12f. Even Urban Sea had a poor record over 12f minus her Arc victory.
Montaff has an extremely similar profile to Black Bear Island (if you take away his Dante victory) and I think we’ll see him in the top 5.
In terms of horses who just murder the trends completely, Golden Sword, Debussy and Masterofthehorse are the 3. Kite Wood and Age of Aquarius also have a fair bit to overcome.
1st Gan Amhras – 2nd Fame and Glory – 3rd Black Bear Island – 4th Montaff is therefore my prediction on the trends.
Oh. Well, erm, that went a little bit wrong. He broke the foaling dates trend in the Guineas and he’s done it in the Derby as well.
Well the trends for the French Derby tomorrow (no foaling dates trend included!) say that Feels All Right will win.
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Despite the lack of rain at Chantilly – ZeTurf have the ground as good at the moment – I’m quite sweet on Malibu Bay at around 40/1. I’m fairly certain he doesn’t fit any sort of trend, being a twice-raced maiden winner, but whilst the form of his Sandown reappearance could be better (the Stoute horse didn’t run badly behind Golden Sword at Chester, and Big Bound ran respectably behind South Easter) he very much looked in need of the outing.
I was taken by him on his debut last season, can’t see him not improving from Sandown and am thankful that Johnny Murtagh rides Westphalia. He’s worth risking at a decent price.
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