- This topic has 157 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’ve just come back from shopping and found everything of interest seems to have been edited…I am intrigued…..
Ashram’s been withdrawn, leaving Delegator + Mastercraftsman as the 2 horses on the trends. Using the skinny trend of 2000 Guineas 2nd + 3rds being defeated, you have a clear pick in Mastercraftsman, but IMO backing him at 5/2 on this ground is a bit silly. You could dutch them, but you’d be backing them odds-on and that’s not something I want to do on heavy ground when a mudlark could run amok.
Yeah I was afraid it’d be a total waste of time. The trends for the Tatts tell us nothing really. You do want to be backing a Group 1 winner though. Only 2 winners (since it reached Group 1 status) hadn’t, and one of those (Black Sam Bellamy) was in a reach where none of them had. The other was Rebelline in 2002.
Using that trend leaves us with Cima De Triomphe, Thewayyouare and Lush Lashes.
The 2nd trend is a bit iffy but it doesn’t help us narrow down the choice so I won’t mention it.
I’m sticking by Cima De Triomphe as my selection, but if he doesn’t run for whatever reason, Thewayyouare will be my selection I think, simply on the basis that the trend (note – singular) rules out all the other runners and Lush Lashes put in a dire run on her sole start on heavy ground. Thewayyouare’s at least won (a Group 1 as well) on what was described as ‘very soft’ by French standards (equivalent to good to soft, soft in places).
Ooops, no, I take that back. 5/2 is a pathetic price. Steer well clear of the 2000 Guineas + Tatts IMO, but ONLY if Cima De Triomphe doesn’t run.
Is worth noting also that the only time we were given a shock winner of the race (Rebelline in 2002), the ground was described as soft. Nayef finished 3rd as 8/11F and Tobougg unplaced as 4/1 2nd fav.
Zarkava – South Central was sold to race on in Hong Kong, not sure how he’s done over there but the Hong Kong Jockey Club site would be able to tell you.
Knew he’d been sold to HK but I thought the RP covered Hong Kong sprints in the form?
Anyway the HK Jockey Club website’s not even finding him, so I presume his name’s been changed.
Good work here Zarkava
One question – if you feel that you need at least 14-15 years data to make the work worthwhile then why would you bother with races like the Coventry which only has 5-6 years of worthwhile data.
Either 5-6 years is enough data to produce meaningful statistics/trends or it’s not.
Knew he’d been sold to HK but I thought the RP covered Hong Kong sprints in the form?
Anyway the HK Jockey Club website’s not even finding him, so I presume his name’s been changed.
They include listed and group race form for international races but if he ran in a handicap it’s unlikely they’d cover it.
I suppose how many years’ trends you use depends upon how strong the trends are, and how many trends there are. There is a trend in the Coral Cup for the winner to have won last time out, but it had only existed for the past 5 years or so – rather interestingly, it continued this year.
I suppose that when dealing with 2yo races in the first part of the season, it cuts down the number of variables that need to be analysed, so 5 years, so long as they are telling a consistent story, can be enough.
Yeah it’s a valid point, David, but if there’s enough of a trend to go on, like there is/are for the Coventry + Norfolk, it’s worth following. Never go against a run
. I’ll certainly approach both races (also the Queen Mary + Albany) with caution and see what happens. If the trends get mullered, then I’ll know where I stand.Ashram’s been withdrawn, leaving Delegator + Mastercraftsman as the 2 horses on the trends. Using the skinny trend of 2000 Guineas 2nd + 3rds being defeated, you have a clear pick in Mastercraftsman, but IMO backing him at 5/2 on this ground is a bit silly. You could dutch them, but you’d be backing them odds-on and that’s not something I want to do on heavy ground when a mudlark could run amok.
I’ve not had a bet but great to see applying the trends strictly has thrown up the winner.
Irish 1000 Guineas, May 24th 2009
For my money, Lahaleeb at 12/1 is a great each-way punt. She meets the main criteria required of a Irish 1000 Guineas winner, will enjoy this ground a lot more than at Newmarket, and still pays a good price for a place, and I’d far rather back her at 12s for the win and 3s for the place than Again or Cuis Ghaire at 4s just for the win.
Well I think she was just in front for slightly too long. A shame the pack split into 2 groups really.
Having said that, fantastic by both the jockey on and trainer of Again. 2 trends broken, but given the trends broken, I don’t think it’s worth making any adjustments.
Again can be considered to have run in the 1000 Guineas – she was declared for it, and withdrawn on the day because of the Firm ground.
I think this is a different case from a filly who didn’t run in the Guineas because she wasn’t considered good enough, or wasn’t ready in time.
It reminds me of an example from a few years ago, but I can’t remember the horse or the occasion. There was a horse that there were doubts about its fitness, because it was having its seasonal debut. However, the horse had been due to run about 3 weeks earlier, but the meeting was abandoned. I thought well, it it was fit enough to run 3 weeks earlier, then it should certainly be fit enough to win now.
Extremely valid point, Gerald, but in terms of doing trends to work out which of the 20 had been declared to run beforehand, I’d be here all day. I’d also say that there’s a colossal difference between being declared to run and actually running.
There have also been horses with a lot of talent who haven’t gone well in this without a prep (Necklace, Kinnaird, Damson) so I stand by the trend, and let’s not forget, it’s only the jockey who’s broken the trend really, otherwise Lahaleeb had it wrapped up.
I did Ascot Gold Cup trends last night, and it looks like a truly appalling year for stayers. Yeats and Geordieland are too old, Patkai ran in the Sagaro, not to mention I don’t think for a second that he’ll stay, Schiaperelli + Sagara haven’t run yet, Coastal Path has deckchaired, Eastern Anthem + Veracity have had too many starts, etc.
There are 2 horses I like the look of. Bannaby is the first. He ran in that dreadful French Group 2, the Vigier, although the success of its runners has improved a lot in the past few years.
But the other 1 is a 100/1 shot. He hasn’t run this season yet, but he’s down to run at Sandown tomorrow. He made colossal progression last year over hurdles and on the flat and he’ll definitely stay. The horse is called Viper and I’ve just backed him for the GC and a 200/1 double with the Henry II as well. I could have a bit of egg on my face tomorrow night, but even if he finishes 2nd I wouldn’t be too worried.
Wish I’d read this thread before I went on my weekly trip to the bookies; looking for a bit of value in the GC I thought I’d have a small ew on Fiulin [possibly because his trainer is so gorgeous]. 33/1 seemed like a good price for a fun bet. 200/1 would have been much better!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.