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Well there’s not been much in the way of ‘good things’ on the trends recently, although Canford Cliffs was pretty much a cert. The only thing he’d failed to do was post a career high RPR last time out.
However, there is a ‘good thing’ running on Saturday in the Nassau.
To start, forget anything who hasn’t won this year – Midday and Rosanara. Every single winner of the Nassau since it became a Group 1 had won that year and only 5 who hadn’t placed.
Forget anything that hadn’t run in a Group 1 LTO – Midday, Antara, Barshiba, Stacelita and Contredanse.
That already leaves Strawberry Daquiri as the sole remaining horse after only 2 trends.
Sir Michael Stoute has an incredible record with his older fillies. He’s basically farmed the Windsor Forest Stakes in recent years with a ridiculous amount of winners, and it’s been a similar story in the Nassau. He’s sent out 10 runners in 10 runnings and picked up 3 winners and 2 placed. That record is lessened a little with the 2 Cheveley Park runners who didn’t stay 10 furlongs – Heaven Sent and Echelon.
On lightning fast ground that Midday will hate, ditto Stacelita and maybe Rosanara too, the only negative I can see is that she’s not a distance winner, although Dansili can give his progeny plenty of stamina (see Harbinger and Rail Link) and she’s a half-sister to a 10f handicap winner.
She’d have been a lot closer to the winner in the Falmouth LTO had it not been for Fallon drifting over to the rail and in this small field, I cannot see her beaten.
Perhaps, but then why did they go for separate races?
Listed into a Group 1? – Two horses can’t win the same race?!
The Leger’s been a very strong trends race since 2001 with every single winner fulfilling the following trends;
Lost their maiden tag as a 2yo, provided he or she ran.
Had run at least 4 times.
Placed LTO.
Ran in the Gordon, Voltigeur or Grand Prix de Paris LTO.
Ran in a Derby or King Edward VII Stakes.
And those trends point to 3 runners; Rewilding, Midas Touch and Snow Fairy.
The sum of Snow Fairy’s sire and damsire’s stamina index figure total 17.3. The lowest figure from the past 16 winners was Rule of Law on 18.4 – more than likely he was able to win because McEvoy made all at a slowish pace. She simply won’t stay.
So we’re left with Rewilding and Midas Touch and it’s nigh impossible to split them on the trends. The each-way value surely lies with Midas Touch given the step-up in trip, level weights, O’Brien stable form and the very real chance that Rewilding is at his very best when fresh and won’t be able to reproduce his York form just 3 weeks later.
Arctic Cosmos gets very close on the trends, except he didn’t lose his maiden tag as a 2yo despite having 2 tries. He was also beaten in the Gordon Stakes (very bad record) and his RPR is incredibly low. A personal best of just 113.
Well, just 2 strong trends races to go. The Arc and the Champion Stakes.
Some basic Arc trends you’re after;
Beaten no more than twice that season
Finished in the top 5 on all starts
Won LTO or top-3 finish in the Niel
Group 1 winner that season
Won 50%+ of starts that season
Had you applied all those trends to the last 15 runnings of the race, you’d have eliminated just 2 winners – Sagamix and Dylan Thomas, by virtue of the 5th and 2nd trends respectively. The other 4 remain 100% intact. Workforce, Cape Blanco and Planteur are the 3 big names removed via a combination of the 6.
Another obvious and well-known trend which I always apply;
Must be a 3-year-old
Applying the first 5 trends, you’re left with just 2 selections; Behks and Fame and Glory.
But there are a couple of near misses.
Cape Blanco’s 11th place finish in the Prix du Jockey Club immediately put him out of contention. He does meet all the other criteria.
Nakayama Festa’s 2nd in the Foy eliminates him.
Sarafina finished 3rd in the Vermeille, the female equivalent of the Niel.
Cape Blanco does worry me a lot. Over the trip and in a field this big. Is it a coincidence that his 11th came in such a big field?
Sarafina’s 3rd in the Vermeille. The form’s taken an absolute pounding. And every run from fillies she’s finished close to in the past against colts have ended in tears. I just don’t think she’ll be anywhere near good enough. Is she even experienced enough? Lammtarra won the Arc on his 4th start but had run as a 2yo. Hurricane Run started his career as a 3yo but had had 5 runs by the time the Arc came about.
Nakayama Festa is most definitely worth an each-way bet. Top class Japanese horses like him have proven that they’re up to the job in the Arc. They’ve never won it, but El Condor Pasa was very unlucky to come up against a freak like Montjeu, while Deep Impact just had a very bad prep. This chap’s had a very good prep, and despite the 2nd behind Duncan, it was run at a slow pace and the sprint finish would’ve given him a very good blow out.
Fame and Glory’s just not good enough. Look at his Coronation Cup run. High Heeled just 2 3/4L behind him. And she’s not won a race all year.
And look at Dixie Music, F&G’s pacemaker. 4 times he’s done the job for him. Beaten 8L, 34L and 39L. Last time out beaten just 3 1/2L while F&G recorded a lowly RPR of just 114.
And just to reiterate Mordin’s stat about F&G. 4 times out of 5 attempts in Group 1 company while running within 22 days of his previous start he’s been victorious, while he’s failed all 3 times he’s had a break of 23+ days. He couldn’t even win a Group 3 on heavy ground on his comeback at 2/5f. He’s a slow-boat. I’ve been saying it for 18 months and I stand by that. He’s also having his 2nd start in the race, a huge negative.
Behks is the ultimate 3yo French colt trends pick, there’s no doubt about it. I expect him to win. Nakayama Festa could be a fly in the ointment, but I’m looking at Planteur to make it a Behks-Planteur SFC for the 3rd time in a row.
Quick Classic trends portfolio;
Frankel + Saamidd have far from the perfect breeding for a potential Guineas winner. Frankel’s also recorded a ridiculously high 2yo RPR and may not train on. So many horses with his kind of juvenile RPR have tried winning the Guineas and all have failed.
Dream Ahead’s also run twice over 6f in Group company and again, that’s a huge negative unless you’re trained by Aidan O’Brien. Has he even beaten a decent horse? The Strong Suit-Zoffany-Elzaam form has proven to be useless.
Despite not being entered for the Dewhurst at the supplementary stage, the trends suggest Casamento is the perfect candidate right now and I’m really struggling to find anything else that remotely fits.
As for the Derby…again, if you like Galileo colts in the Derby, Frankel’s the absolute clear pick. If, like me, you look at their record and think ‘hmmmm’, then the best I have to offer is either Masked Marvel or Treasury Devil. With all the hyped-up 2yos heading for the Dewhurst as things stand, the path could be clear for Masked Marvel in the Racing Post Trophy.
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