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I’ve been a believer in trends for about 3 years and have had a lot of success using Craig Thake’s taken from the RP.
However, I want to find my own trends and go back further. 10 years doesn’t really allow for any changing patterns. 14 years just about is enough I think, with 2009 meaning I’ll have 15 years to look at.
I do experiment with foaling dates, perhaps wrongly, so this is very much a toe-in-the-water year. They cost me Sea The Stars in the Guineas, but they made Rainbow View a much more solid lay.
I mainly look at Group 1s, although some Group 2s have enough to go off. If a race has changed in status, I will only use the renewals run under the current status. For example, for the Prince of Wales’, I only go back to 2000. For the Queen Anne, I only go back to 2003. The only issue is that the inaugural running under a new classification will generally give ‘skewed’ data. For example, in terms of trends, the Queen Anne 2003 is like a Group 3 compared to the renewals since.
I’m hoping that by putting up my selections and evidence for public viewing, I’ll have the motivation to check them more thoroughly, and who knows, maybe someone can even throw up new trends.
Irish 2000 Guineas, 23rd May 2009
An extremely strong race for the trends since 2000, albeit without throwing up a sole contender. Between 1995 and 99, there was no bias for or against those who didn’t run in a 2000 Guineas, but it’s all changed since. The last 6 winners all ran at Newmarket, with Bachir + Black Minnaloushe at the turn of the century running in the French equivalent, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.
In terms of likely runners, Recharge, Intense Focus (probably won’t run on soft), Sayif, Malibu Bay, Rayeni and Soul City haven’t run in a Guineas and can therefore be overlooked. The latter 2 will be having their seasonal debuts, but all 11 prepless runners since 1995 were unplaced. However, AOB is responsible for 7 of those. Hannon has run 2 Guineas runner-ups though and both were well beaten.
Oxx has had 2 proper contenders and both came 2nd. However, Rayeni was 2nd choice to Vitruvian Man in the Killavullan and the latter disappointed badly in the Ballysax. Gluteus Maximus in 3rd is also an extremely average horse and his run in that was the only time he’s been given a RPR of 100+ in 10 starts (just 1 victory).
2-year-old form is extremely important, unless you’re looking at a Stoute runner, none of which appear in this. Just Monitor Closely is removed since he was rated less than 100 as a juvenile. Malibu Bay is removed for a 2nd time.
The foaling dates trend doesn’t have any impact on the remaining 3 runners.
Delegator, Mastercraftsman + Ashram remain.
There is a trend that would eliminate Delegator, but it’s only based on 13 runners, which really is 3 or 4 runners shy of what you need to put it down as a trend IMO. The record of 2000 Guineas 2nd and 3rds isn’t great, since you’d expect them to win if the winner didn’t reoppose. Of the 13 between 95 and 08, 0 won and just 5 were placed.
However, given that they’ve all failed at skinny odds, I think it’s definitely worth looking elsewhere since there’s little to gain by backing him. If you back him and he wins, fair enough, he’s got the best form in the race, but if he loses, you’ll be looking back at previous runners and kicking yourself.
Runners like Rebel Rebel, Vital Equine + Stubbs Art can be ignored, but Bahri, Giant’s Causeway, Bijou D’Inde, Revoque, Zafeen + Azamour were all much the best horse on form in the race beforehand.
I think it comes down to the difference in racecourse between Newmarket and The Curragh. At Newmarket, the last 2 furlongs is run uphill. The finish suits horses with stamina, which is why so many Guineas winners go on to be successful over 10f or further. The speedier types get outstayed up the hill and finish in-behind. Look at this year’s race, for example. Mastercraftsman was the first genuine out-and-out miler on breeding in 5th. Evasive was right behind in 6th.
In 2008, the first 2 home went on to finish 2nd in the BC Classic + win the Derby. Stubbs Art, in 3rd, is still running over a mile. For 2007, it’s hard to draw conclusions since the winner + 2nd had very few consequent starts. But again, in 2006, the first 3 home all ran very well over 10f+, with Araafa in 4th going on to win the Irish Guineas + St. James’ Palace.
So I’m going to be opposing Delegator.
I did like Ashram, since he finished extremely close to Delegator & co. in the Dewhurst, and he has a similar profile to a Bachelor Duke/Indian Haven-type winner, not to mention Godolphin have a good record in this and they’re back in form after a very poor start. However, I’ve just read that he has an engagement in a 7f Listed race at Newmarket on Saturday. Whether he runs or not is irrelevant, it’s not a good omen as to his chances in Ireland.
Mastercraftsman is the remaining one left, but I’m not jumping for joy about the ground being heavy. His worst 2 performances last year were on softer ground. However, he is a Group 1 winner on it.
I’d hold fire on any major bets, but Ashram is 25/1 with VC + Skybet. A small EW dabble would be my recommendation at the moment. Even £2EW. If he turns up, he’s got a good chance of victory and you can even lay off at the shorter price he’ll inevitably be.
Irish 1000 Guineas, May 24th 2009
Quite self-explanatory trends I think.
Only the genius of Aidan O’Brien has managed to train an Irish 1000 Guineas winner without having run in a Guineas or having won last time out. The horse in question is Imagine, and 75 others tried, with just 10% placed.
This rules out; Aaroness, Again, Beauthea, Chintz, Cristal Island, Duaisbhanna, Excellerator, Hallie’s Comet, Luminous Eyes, Monivea and Totally Devoted.
Horses having their seasonal debut also have a dreadful record. Not even O’Brien’s been able to break that trend. Just 2 of the 21 runners were placed, and both those placed horses ran in truly dreadful renewals of the race.
This rules out (again); Again, Cristal Island, Excellerator and Luminous Eyes.
None of the 40 runners who hadn’t run in a Group race won, and just 5 were placed.
This rules out; Always Be True, Duaisbhanna and Love Bird.
At the moment, those remaining are Cuis Ghaire, Heart Shaped, Lahaleeb, Nashmiah, Oh Goodness Me and Super Sleuth.
Without taking any trends involving maidens into account, I couldn’t possibly back Super Sleuth. She seems to be a horse who doesn’t want to win. She’ll keep running admirably and keep picking up prize money but she’ll struggle to get her head in-front. I could be proved wrong in this race, but otherwise, I’d drop her down in class to a Listed contest sometime in June, make her learn how to keep her head in front, and then run her in the Falmouth.
I’m expecting a much better run from Oh Goodness Me, especially with a brisker pace, but she can’t possibly win. I’d like to see her in the Oaks, as long as she doesn’t beat Perfect Truth.
Nashmiah wants much faster ground than she’ll get here and probably won’t get home in the conditions.
Cuis Ghaire, Heart Shaped + Lahaleeb remain. After seeing Lahaleeb in the paddock at Newmarket, it was apparent she wouldn’t put in any sort of run since she has a very high knee action. She wants underfoot conditions, but I just wonder if it’ll be too soft for her.
On the other hand, Cuis Ghaire wants the ground like a road to be seen at her best. She’ll hardly be able to get her hooves out of this.
Heart Shaped is American-bred and also wants extremely quick ground to be seen at her best. She won’t like this one bit.
The latter 2 actually break a trend which says that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th from the 1000 Guineas struggle in this for same reasons as the 2000 Guineas 2nd and 3rd struggle.
For my money, Lahaleeb at 12/1 is a great each-way punt. She meets the main criteria required of a Irish 1000 Guineas winner, will enjoy this ground a lot more than at Newmarket, and still pays a good price for a place, and I’d far rather back her at 12s for the win and 3s for the place than Again or Cuis Ghaire at 4s just for the win.
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Good stuff Zarkava, and you’ve obviously put a lot of thought into it, but I’d suggest you’d attract more views and comment if you cut & pasted these into their respective places on the Big Race section.
Yes, really interesting. I agree, putting something down like this does focus you. I’d love to hear more of your ideas on foaling dates, as I was asking about the relevence a couple of weeks ago. I can’t help but feel that the date is very important in 2 year old races, which could lead to rather advanced older 2 year olds that have a slightly less of an advantage the following year.
Hi Moehat, thanks for the message.
I’ve actually just been looking at the
Coventry Stakes
, since the ‘cut off’ point is in a week’s time based on the trends, so I’m looking to get the value now.
The problem with this race, like so many others, is that it was only promoted to a Group 2 in 2004, ‘resetting’ the trends, and surprise surprise, the 2004 running gives skewed data which completely contradicts the races since.
However, foaling dates are never skewed. The 5 winners were foaled on Mar 27, Jan 17, Apr 7, Feb 28 and Mar 20. A nice 10-week gap. All 10 placed horses were foaled in this same gap.
11 runners were foaled after April 7th, and all were unplaced. I’m not suggesting that if Hellvelyn had been foaled on April 8th, then he would have been unplaced, but I think it’s worth creating a cut-off point on around the 20th April, which would rule out 7 of the 11 runners. If you made the cut-off point 2 days earlier, you’d get another 3 unplaced runners.
Oratorio (Apr 29) – won 5 weeks later over 6f
Beaver Patrol (Apr 18 ) – beaten a month later, but then 1st and 2nd 3 + 5 weeks later in a Conditions race + a £100k Sales raceBaby Strange (Apr 27) – didn’t stay 7f 3 months later, 2 weeks later won Listed over 6f
Captain Marvelous (Apr 19) – nothing on next 2 starts in July + Aug, then won a 6f H’Cap, 6f Group 2 + 3rd in Middle Park
Pencil Hill (May 3) – unplaced in 4 consequent starts
Bobs Surprise (Apr 22) – not won since but 3 1/2L 5th behind Winker Watson in July Stakes next time outSouth Dakota (Apr 19) – beaten 3/4L in Railway Stakes next time out
The 4 not listed are all rubbish.
Those in bold I think are the best examples of where the foaling date may have played a part in their defeat, with Oratorio the most obvious.
However, after all of that, they’re pretty worthless for this year’s race based on the current ante-post lists. No Hubris (Apr 24) and Radiohead (Apr 26) are the 2 removed.
The last 3 runnings of the Coventry have been won by undefeated horses with 1 or 2 starts, posting a RPR of 95+ and I’m happy to stick to that this year. Therefore, I’ll remove all the beaten horses;
Love Lockdown, Air Chief Marshal, Little Perisher, Radiohead (again), Star Rover, King Ledley, Clashnacree, Archer’s Road, Flying Statesman, Beethoven + Izaaj.
Next to remove those with a RPR less than 95;
(The record of those who ran within 20 days of the race is extremely poor, so unless any of the runners in bold run between now and the 27th May, win and improve their RPR, they’re out. We’ll see if they have any entries by Friday though.)
Love Lockdown (again), Air Chief Marshal (again), Little Perisher (again), King Ledley (again),
Be Invincible, Raine’s Cross
, Clashnacree (again), Archers Road (again), No Hubris, Flying Statesman (again), Beethoven (again).
We’re waiting for new RPRs for Radiohead (3rd trend broken if not) and Izaaj, but it’s extremely doubtful the latter will hit 95. The former might sneak it.
Red Clubs did win after having 3 career starts, but just 1 of the 14 since was placed. This rules out Monsieur Chevalier (doubtful to run anyway I believe), Little Perisher (3rd time), Star Rover (2nd time) and Archers Road (3rd time).
Including those who’ll need to run, win + improve to qualify, the 5 remaining horses are Steinbeck, Canford Cliffs, Red Jazz,
Be Invincible + Raine’s Cross
. Raine’s Cross does go straight to Ascot apparently, so I’m happy to rule him out, and I’m not sure about Be Invincible. He won the infamous Thomas Baines race, who Spencer said was the best horse in the race, and has been beaten since, so I can’t be backing him either.
As much as I want to, I just cannot get away from Steinbeck. Has almost an identical profile to Henrythenavigator in that he’s hit 96 after just 1 start and he’ll have about a month’s break before the race. Holy Roman Emperor had his maiden just 13 days before the Coventry, so I can forgive him his run.
Canford Cliffs was extremely impressive but as a rule I don’t back horses with wide-margin maiden successes unless they prove their quality. On countless occasions last year, 7L+ maiden winners were thrown into Group company and beaten at short prices. It’s happened many times before + it’ll happen many times again.
Red Jazz is the interesting EW contender. He was extremely impressive at Windsor and followed up satisfactorily at Ascot, but Monsieur Chevalier beat Archer’s Road further over the same trip and when giving away 3lbs. He will improve for the extra furlong however.
Verdict;
As much as I don’t want to, I have to tip up Steinbeck. On the trends he has colossal scope for improvement and has a very similar profile to Henrythenavigator. Given that he is 5/1 though, and will without question by closer to 5/2 on the day, I think an each-way punt is the best option.
Steinbeck @ 5/1, each-way (Coral or Stan James)
Red Jazz @ 16/1, each-way (Coral)Fantastic work Zarkava, keep it coming all season! Like the way you marry good sensible analysis including the likely going with trends-based stuff- you’re on my wavelength!
Got to disagree with you about Craig Thake though, the man is a clown. All this "within 10lbs of top-rated RPR" stuff gives me heartburn. The Weatherbys books are different class to him.Very good Zarkava. I found from my own experience there is value in this approach for Group racing on the flat, however I found it massively time consuming and such selective betting just doesn’t suit me anyway.
One question…
The last 3 runnings of the Coventry have been won by undefeated horses with 1 or 2 starts, posting a RPR of 95+ and I’m happy to stick to that this year. Therefore, I’ll remove all the beaten horses;
What would your reasoning be behind this trend? It does seem to be a cornerstone for your selections on this race.
Keep up the good work.
BTW, if you want any 10-1 Lahaleeb, I suggest you act tonight….
She’s a definite runner, Ryan Moore rides and she worked really well on TuesdayI’m only just getting into trends – though at the moment I’m just lazing about doing nothing.
In general, I’m not too keen on the idea of key races, in relation to the one under consideration (though I suppose I make an exception, probably not justified, for the Marcel Boussac).
2000 Guineas in relation to the Irish 2000 Guineas is okay though, because what would be the alternative(s)? Also, you give a good explanation of why it might not work.
However, in regards to the Derby for example, I don’t put much value of x winners in the last y years having won or contested such-an-such event. I’m only prepared to admit that the 2000 Guineas, Ballysax [edit: I meant Derrinstown], Dante and Lingfield Trial are the best four trials, but I wouldn’t be prepared, in general, to put one above the others.
Gerald
Hi Zarkava,
Really interesting stuff. In fact, most of your posts so far have really caught my eye. You seem to really know your stuff!
Welcome to the forum
Dan
Fantastic work Zarkava, keep it coming all season! Like the way you marry good sensible analysis including the likely going with trends-based stuff- you’re on my wavelength!
Got to disagree with you about Craig Thake though, the man is a clown. All this "within 10lbs of top-rated RPR" stuff gives me heartburn. The Weatherbys books are different class to him.Oh I definitely agree about Craig Thake. He was the inspiration for doing my own trends, but not in a good way. He constantly uses odds and positions in the market as part of his trends. The Arkle trend is the one that really annoys me. The winner must have been between 4/1 and 11/1, or something stupid like that. He also says you must not back the favourite. Forpadydeplasterer is actually a good example of this. He was 12/1 for about 2 weeks before the race, and then attracted money into whatever it was that he won at, 9/1 I think.
Based on Craig Thake’s trends, had he not attracted money from 12s, he’d have lost? How about if he’d been 12s, been gambled on heavily for 2 days prior to the race, been 5/1 2nd fav and then got favouritism seconds before the off. Would he have lost?
Btw, you’d have a heart attack if you knew who I was
The last 3 runnings of the Coventry have been won by undefeated horses with 1 or 2 starts, posting a RPR of 95+ and I’m happy to stick to that this year. Therefore, I’ll remove all the beaten horses;
What would your reasoning be behind this trend? It does seem to be a cornerstone for your selections on this race.
Keep up the good work.
Well thanks to all the members who have posted kind messages first of all. Always nice to be appreciated
. Hopefully the trends don’t let me down now .With the Coventry (also the Norfolk actually, the last 3 winners (since it became a Group 2) had all raced once and been successful), you need a fast maturing horse. Winker Watson, Hellvelyn, Art Connoisseur, Dutch Art and Iceman are all perfect examples of this IMO. Came flying out of the gate and their form tailed off later in the season/as a 3yo. Dutch Art is an arguable example to be fair, but it’s hard to deny he was a better 2yo than 3yo. The RP database is showing South Central as not having run since last year’s Norfolk. If that’s true, another good example. Worth far more at stud as he is than racing him out of his depth and getting smashed.
Henrythenavigator was an extremely talented horse with an extremely talented trainer who was able to keep him going as a 3-year-old, or perhaps he just had an enormous amount of natural talent that made the job easier.
The same goes for the Queen Mary actually. Damson, Flashy Wings, Gilded, Elletelle, Langs Lash – none of them made it through the season without their form tailing off, let alone as 3yos (obvious exception with the latter).
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