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Greenwood Lays

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 157 total)
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  • #11755
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Hi all,

    I will be posting a system in here which has been making money for a very long time. The system involves laying a lot of short priced, and some longer priced horses and as such it will always hit a lot of winners, though obviously due to the odds you won’t loose too much. For this reason expect a rocky ride from time to time but I don’t believe you will ever need a bank anymore than 500. However, I will start with a bank of 1000.

    I won’t claim for this system to be amazing. I won’t claim for it to make 1000’s of points every year because it doesn’t. In fact on some years it has made only a few points profit, but over the years together it has made a lot. It won’t change your life, but it should be a nice addition to an already establised betting portfolio.

    There are on average 2.2 horses a day to lay. The average odds are 3.01 and it has a hit rate of 34.5%. (As I said, be ready for a bumpy ride!)

    Without further ado, please see below todays lays:

    Coffee Tea Or Me — 7.20 — Ballinrobe — 3/1

    ======
    Bank = 1000
    PL = 0
    ======

    #233975
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Welcome to the forum MM.
    However is it possible you can explain how you are going to arrive at the selections?
    rgds

    #233979
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Thanks Seagull.

    Is it a necessity that I have to post how to come about the selections? Just I don’t want the bottom to fall out the system, and I’m sure a profitable system without understanding how is better than a non-profitable one with understanding.

    The system without going into too much detail looks at horses which are favorites, or 2nd favorites but whose price appears to be way too short. It’s that margin where the profit comes. I have a pretty tight system which fairly accurately works out the true odd and then matches it against the SP odd. Any difference and I lay…

    #234017
    theracingscope
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Hello Mysteryman,
    looking forward to your system selections as this will help me out with my placepot selections by thinking about not putting your selections into the appropriate legs.
    Mysteryman are each of your lays " layed" at level stakes from the 1000 bank , if so what is the level stake ? ,
    Kind Regards ,

    #234028
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    I have played about with different staking plans regarding bank and also looking into different staking plans according to the odds, but nothing seems to work as well as level staking.

    Just to give you an idea, if you put 50 points on every race for the last 1000 races the lowest your bank would have fallen to is around 570. However, I will be laying 1 point for each race just to keep the figures nice and rounded.

    #234130
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Coffee Tea Or Me — 7.20 — Ballinrobe — 3/1

    Finished 2nd.

    ======
    PL = +1
    ======

    #234228
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    No qualifiers for today.

    #234515
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Wednesday 17th June

    Falcon Rock (IRE) — 6.10 — Kempton — 100/30

    Silver Symphony (IRE) — 7.40 — Kempton — 11/10

    #234860
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Falcon Rock (IRE) — 6.10 — Kempton — 100/30

    Finished 2nd.

    Silver Symphony (IRE) — 7.40 — Kempton — 11/10

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 1.67

    Please note when winners do occur I will use the BetFair Starting Price as the official odds to calculate PL. These odds are said to be 15% higher than highstreet bookies so I believe this is a fair figure to use.

    ======
    PL = +1.23
    ======

    #234861
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Thursday 18th June 2009

    Nostringsattached (IRE) — 8.50 — Fffos Las — 7/2

    #235113
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Nostringsattached (IRE) — 8.50 — Fffos Las — 7/2

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 4.05

    ======
    PL = -1.82
    ======

    #235114
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Friday 19th June

    No qualifiers.

    #235389
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Saturday 20th June

    No qualifiers

    #235637
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Sunday 21st June 2009

    Shiwawa — 2.20 — Hexham — 8/11

    Dead Or Alive (IRE) — 4.50 — Hexham — 11/10

    #235710
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Shiwawa — 2.20 — Hexham — 8/11

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 1.78

    Dead Or Alive (IRE) — 4.50 — Hexham — 11/10

    Finished 2nd

    Please note I’ve added BSP (BetFair Starting Price) and ISP (Industry Starting Price) for comparison purposes.

    =========
    PL (BSP) = -1.39
    PL (ISP) = -0.34
    =========

    #235743
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Monday 22nd June

    Peak District (IRE) — 3.15 — Lingfield — 11/4

    Aureate — 2.30 — Wolverhampton — 13/8

    Global Village (IRE) — 4.30 — Wolverhampton — 3/1

    Voortrekker — 5.00 — Wolverhampton — 13/8

    #235925
    MysteryMan
    Member
    • Total Posts 154

    Peak District (IRE) — 3.15 — Lingfield — 11/4

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 3.83

    Aureate — 2.30 — Wolverhampton — 13/8

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 1.7

    Global Village (IRE) — 4.30 — Wolverhampton — 3/1

    Finished 3rd

    Voortrekker — 5.00 — Wolverhampton — 13/8

    Finished 1st – BF SP = 2.56

    ======
    BSP = -4.51
    ISP = -2.25
    ======

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