Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud 2016

[Chivers1987]

An interesting race this but clearly not the strongest group 1 event. This should leave it a fairly open contest even with a 5/4 favourite in the shape of Alain De Royer-Dupre’s Vazirabad, a group 1 winner over 2 miles.
After he had won the Dubai Gold Cup the question of a tilt at the Ascot Gold Cup was put forward, to which Mr. De Royer-Dupre dismissed as he believed this horse had the speed for a step back in trip.

The price is very short and very unappealing, especially when considering the prospects of his other fancied runner in the race One Foot In Heaven. He has a nice pedigree, is lightly raced and comes here off the back of listed, group 3 and group 2 victories on good and soft ground. He is progressing well with each run now and has a very sweet turn of foot.
Here is a snippet of what the trainer thinks about both of his leading contenders:

On Vazirabad he stated “I think he could be quick enough, but the question is the level of opposition because there are better horses in this than the stayers he’s been running against,”

And on One Foot In Heaven: “He has a very strong turn of foot, I know he can go on any ground and he’s an easy ride. It’s difficult to know what will happen between him and Vazirabad.

“He’s talented, like his mother, who was very good when she got older. She won this race, beating Hurricane Run.”

Make what you will from those comments but that is enough to suggest to me that he fancies OFIH a little more than the Aga Khan gelding.

It is difficult to weigh up the strength of OFIH’s last couple of victories as there hasn’t really been anything behind him to come out and frank the form in any way apart from a listed win for Ayrad at Sandown on Friday over 10f. He had both Harlem and Garlingari not far behind him (although both were a little flattered by the margin) and they are 16/1 chances for this, re-opposing on slightly better terms.

Eagle Top is one of those untrustworthy horses that clearly has talent but flatters to deceive on a lot of occasions. This would be potentially the best time to back him considering the strength of the race and his price but he was lacklustre on his seasonal appearance at Newbury and will have had to come on a hell of a lot to make an impact here.

Dylan Mouth finds winning easy in Italy but hasn’t produced anything overseas to suggest he is in good enough order to win this, even if he has been switched to the yard of Marco Botti. He was 7th of 7, 15 lengths behind Eagle Top in the King George last year and that about says it all really.
Manatee spent much of 2015 campaigned over 12f, culminating in a group 2 win, but he didn’t cut it at the highest level before seeing the backside of Vazirabad three times in his last 4 races over staying trips.

Silverwave & Erupt are quite closely matched on form and have fared well in group 1 races, Erupt won the group 1 Paris Juddmonte which featured the like of Balios and Storm The Stars in behind and they could be the biggest dangers to the market leaders if on song.

I was going to write this up yesterday evening when One Foot In Heaven was 8/1 with Betfair but I got lazy and the footie was fast approaching.
He appeals to me as the most progressive and exciting horse in this race and at 5/1 is better value than his stablemate Vazirabad.

[stevecaution]

I did One Foot In Heaven to win 5/1 and Garlingari each-way at 18/1.

I note French Racing expert Liz Price is confident the favourite will win and the second favourite will be the danger. In her other big race tip, she has gone for the warm favourite.

If only I could get a job like that one.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Chivers1987]

Those group wins for One foot in heaven can be dismissed as average form now. Vazirabad was an awful price and decent group 1 form over 12f for Silverware and Erupt has proved the most fruitful.

[stevecaution]

Garlingari ran well but was swamped for a place late on.

One Foot In Heaven was always too far back but I couldn’t say he would have won anyway, it looked that he’s reached his level now.

Silverware was hardly winning out of turn and that was Erupt’s best show for a long time.

At least Liz Price got a winner as Al Wathna scrambled home in a desperate 3 way go to reward the intrepid bet at odds of 9/10F

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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