Grand Prix de Paris 2023

[IanDavies]

This 3yo Group 1 takes place at Longchamp on Friday and confirmations/supplementaries will be announced tomorrow.

It used to be 1m7f back in the day, it’s 1m4f nowadays and many regard it as the true spiritual French Derby since the Chantilly contest was reduced in distance.

My main angle thus far into the race is that Soul Sister is likely to be supplemented and I might want to be against her.

The reasons?

Despite winning The Oaks, she showed such speed in the closing stages of the Musidora I suspect 1m2f might be her optimum trip and it seems to me the form of the Epsom Downs Classic isn’t working out that well so far.

I will look at the confirmations with great interest tomorrow.

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[LD73]

Not convinced she is an out and out 12F horse, especially if the ground is softer where stamina over speed is the trait required the most – those two sub 11sec furlongs at York over 10F makes me think 10F is going to be her optimum trip.

Races like the Nassau Stakes, Prix de l’Opera and BC Filly & Mare Turf (where she is most likely to get the quick ground she likes) are races they should be looking at….maybe even the Juddmonte should be looked at.

[IanDavies]

https://www.france-galop.com/en/racing/detail/2023/P/RVpUVW9wdXdxVExBTWpaMGJOcnIwQT09

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[LD73]

Not exactly a stellar line up….you can understand why they are thinking of going there

[IanDavies]

Eight left with Castle Way and Tower Of London out and Soul Sister in.

Adelaide River a fascinating one here for me.

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[IanDavies]

Grand Prix de Paris confirmations

Feed The Flame
Rubis Vendome
Winter Pudding
Adelaide River
Peking Opera
First Minister
Silawi
Soul Sister

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[LD73]

Is this another snub for stable stalwart Rab Havlin that Gosden has opted for Kieran Shoemark?

Rab is currently 9th in the Jockeys Championship with the best win to ride percentage of those in the top 10 and currently has one booked ride on Friday (Defence of Fort who is double entered at both Newmarket & York) for Peter Chapple-Hyam!!!

Quite clearly the Gosden’s knew they were going to supplement her for a while (at least probably before Rab was booked by Chapple-Hyam) so clearly they had no intention of getting him to ride her even though I have no doubt he would have ridden her plenty at home

[IanDavies]

Shoemark has had some past success round Longchamp and is rumoured to be a contender to replace Dettori on the yard’s best horses after Dettori retires.

I’d rather have Shoemark than Havlin, but it’s a game of opinions.

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[LD73]

Rab has currently 25 more winners off just 27 more rides, 9 winners in last 14 days compared to Shoemark’s 4 in the same period…would rather go with the jockey in form who knows the horse as I don’t think Longchamp is a particularly difficult track to know/ride.

Riding work is considered a vital part of the operation yet when the stable jockey is unavailable he consistently gets passed over….if it was one of the top jockeys then fair enough but nothing is telling me Shoemark is the better jockey currently.

Maybe the Gosdens see Friday as a public audition for Shoemark for the job and I guess he must have given up his booked ride for the Charlton’s at Ascot then.

But as you rightly said, game is all about opinions.

[IanDavies]

Could Adelaide River and Ryan Moore beat Soul Sister?

I wouldn’t rule it out and 6/1 looks fair to me.

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[zilzal]

Possibly 32 degrees tomorrow evening in Paris, Feed the Flame looks a cert

[sporting sam]

Adelaide river
Irish Derby.
Mostly hands and heels in the closing stages, pressed winner then relented and still found more pulled out at end and stayed on well. Ridden to instruction and animated “air whips” at one stage in a yard 1234

Looks to be more to come and can now be let down with Moore on top.

[IanDavies]

I always like it when I’ve got Sam on my side – come on, the River!

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[Mike007]

As it stands, something has to run to 120+ to beat Soul Sister. Is there one that good in the race? If she is still improving, having had just the four starts, a bigger number than that will be needed. I think I will just watch :o)

[LD73]

Interesting things to note – ground described as ‘soft’ which could literally mean anything but if it is soft (and French soft) then that could make Soul Sister vunerable as it becomes more a stamina test whatever pace they go.

The other thing is who will actually make the pace and go a good gallop? Adelaide River based on his Epsom & Irish Derby runs maybe the best bet but as he was likely employed to make the running for Auguste Rodin, now that he is running on his own merits will they now be less forceful in their tactics? If they do that and it turns into the typically French run race then it comes down to who has the best turn of foot and that clearly points to Soul Sister.

[Mike007]

32 degrees and sunny all day. A lot of any Soft should get wiped out.

[FinalFurlong91]

Knowing how accurate French going descriptions are it’s probably actually gd to firm not soft

[Author]

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