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After the race, Stewart said that he was keen to return to Aintree. However, Nicholls is of the view that perhaps My Will is the sort of horse who one can get away with running over the National fences once, but the second time . . .
Butlers Cabin is apparently with Enda Bolger now, training for Cross-Country races. (I haven’t come across that officially anywhere, just on the betfair forum.) Some people have taken the view that that means he won’t be running in the GN, but I’m not too sure.
I’m starting to become a naughty boy; shopping in Asda on Wednesday afternoons, and browsing through the stable tours in the weekly racing papers whilst I’m there, instead of buying them.
Any Currency is going for the NH Chase at Cheltenham.
Palypso De Creek lost a shoe, FWIW, when fourth in the Becher.
Greatrex is quite Bolshie about Hennessy, saying that a 138 rating for a winner of a race such as the Whitbread is quite a modest mark, and that the horse wasn’t at his best when he won, and that he will be better running lefthanded, as he was never travelling in the Whitbread.
Quwetwo has been ready to run in and win a Novice Chase for six weeks now.
Afraid to say Gerald that this holds no relevance to the Grand National!
Hennessy is a smashing horse on good ground – expect him to win some decent handicaps in the Spring.
This Palypso de Creek French recruit interests me a lot – won on his British debut on good ground and ran well in the Becher’s and now that it has come to light that he lost a shoe makes his run there even more promising – think he could be the type to excel at Aintree, so will be watching out for him come April.
Harry Findlay said that Big Fella Thanks ‘was a bit flat footed and did not have a cut at those big fences;I hope he will know what to expect next April’. Could go either way..he may jump them better or may remember and not run his race. Looked pretty good to me last April; need to watch the race again, I think.
Grand National placers have a poor win record in the big race itself (in fact until very recently GN finishers had a poor record – Mon Mome and Comply or Die have helped rectify this somewhat).
Course form is a major plus (preferably in the Becher Chase).
i always used to put a line through horses that had run down the field in a previous National.
However, given the way last yr unfolded (i’d given up on Mon Mome whom i backed in 08 but i thought looked uninterested and best fresh) it is worth taking previous runs with a pinch of salt.
Therefore some of the unplaced and placed horses from 09 will have to go under the microscope.
Offshore Account – Bang there until fading late
Southern Vic – ran well in ground too quick
State of Play, Big Fella, Butlers….Going from memory so nothing to back up what I’ve said, horses that fall one year have won it the next, rather than horses that finished unplaced.I still think that Hedgehunter was just a year too young when he fell and was much stronger the next year [ok he was ridden with more restraint as well]. If a horse finishes down the field it possibly didn’t stay. Browsed a few sites last night from last year ‘narrowing down the field’. They ruled out Cerium, Mon Mome and My Will straight away because they were French bred. Realised a while ago that it’s best to have a tick list for horses rather than an instant elimination list.
Offshore Account – Bang there until fading late
I have my doubts about last year’s race as a guide to this year’s. There were more horses in contention than usual after three out, a fair number of which appeared unlikely stayers (Arteea, Cerium, for example). I suspect it was run at a steadier pace than usual.
They ruled out Cerium, Mon Mome and My Will straight away because they were French bred. Realised a while ago that it’s best to have a tick list for horses rather than an instant elimination list.
The thing with trends is that there are those that are based on good reasons, which are worth investigating, and those based on coincidence or statistical anomaly. Before last year, a few French-breds had gone close but perhaps been a little bit unlucky (Clan Royal, Mely Moss, Encore un Peu…), suggesting it was only a matter of time before one won.
fair point. i thought last years running was a strange strange event. not just because of a big priced winner but agreed, loads of runners in with a chance at the turn. its almost unheard of how many were there before they sprinted home.
it was 16 seconds slower that comply or die’s win the previous year and 17 slower than Silver Birch in 07.
all those doubtful stayers were able to get into a rhythm and fill their lungs with oxygen b4 giving it a go to last home.
surely this wont happen this yr will it?
i am going to try and find recordings of past 3 yrs runnings and time where the difference occured. ie: was last yr slow all the way through or did they slow up when black apalachi unseated at bechers’ 2nd time around as nothing wanted to take it up.
No-one else fancy War of Attrition? For a former Gold-Cup winner, hes probably going to get a lovely racing weight, and we know he has the class and is a sound jumper. Hes really beginning to appeal to me now, anybody else???
It would be nice if you could supply those time comparisons CDB. However, I think it has already been established it was the absence of pace after Black Apalachi and Silver Birch’s departure at the 22nd.
I’m thinking that that makes Mon Mome’s winning distance worth more, but I haven’t heard affirmation from anyone else.
No-one else fancy War of Attrition? For a former Gold-Cup winner, hes probably going to get a lovely racing weight, and we know he has the class and is a sound jumper. Hes really beginning to appeal to me now, anybody else???
I like him quite a bit, even though his form has tailed off slightly this season. The only other knock against him is lack of experience going this far, but I’m certain he’ll be able to stay.
No-one else fancy War of Attrition? For a former Gold-Cup winner, hes probably going to get a lovely racing weight, and we know he has the class and is a sound jumper. Hes really beginning to appeal to me now, anybody else???
He would appeal with 10-7,unfortunately it will be just over 11-0,probably 11-2,thats not jumping off the page i"m afraid!
Famous last words, but he doesn’t appeal to me. Horses do well coming back from injury but he seems to have ongoing soundness problems. Can’t see him running so wouldn’t back him ante post. If he’s going to win the market will tell us closer to the race [think Papillon!].
It looks like the stable have had the National in mind for a couple of seasons now for old War Of Attrition. He should have no problem staying and he is certainly starting to look attractively handicapped but does he still posses the same spark?
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Jonjo has a plan he’s going to run Don’t Push It and get AP a sportsman of the year award before he retires
No need to worry about the trip he falls asleep during his races and won’t know the race has started until AP smacks him around the lugs and wakens him up
Joking aside he’s got a serious chance if he takes to the place. Great jumper, travels very easily in his races and shouldn’t be too high in the handicap. Jonjo damn near won it with Butlers Cabin who very few would have got to win any race with. So DPI won’t lack anything in preparation and he has a touch of class about him on a going day.
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