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Thats interesting; seem to remember a few of us taking an interest in Royal Rosa ages ago when it looked unlikely that he would run.However, it’s more logical to run RR instead of Abbeybraney, one being a novice and the other towards the end of his somewhat disappointing career. Also Ceriums trainer said he would take Mr Pointment out to enable Cerium to get in, so I guess that I can take Mr P off my ever growing ante post list.
With both the Abbeybraney/Royal Rosa and Mr Pointment/Cerium issues, remember that there are 4 reserves, so connections can declare both horses in each case, and then see what the situation is.
I’ll shut up on the State Of Play issue, as the trainer is adamant.
Leading contender State Of Play, fourth in the race last year and a 20-1 chance with William Hill, has only run once since last year’s National – pulling up in the Hennessy Gold Cup – but trainer Evan Williams on Monday gave a glowing bulletin on his star.
“We’ve always been keen to train him with the National in mind and he’s always better after a long break. He’s very, very well. He’s had a great preparation and has not missed a day’s work,” said Williams.
“As long as the ground is good-to-soft we’ve got no worries. It’s the extreme going that will be a cause for concern.”
I thought the problem turned out to be a muscular one in the end? My concern with him is that he’s quite a small horse to jump those fences out of heavy ground. However, having read another article, this time in the Times today, about Dream Alliance all I really want is for him to win. It would be one of the biggest fairytale stories in the history of the race. I know he’s got too much weight, but I can dream. It would be like I’d lived long enough to see National Velvet really happen [or a slight variation of it].
Irish Raptor for me if the ground improves, no one jumps as well as him round Aintree fences in the spring like this fella and he just seems right on form at this time, doubt on whether he can stay the 4m4f but surely his Topham runs are encouraging and he is on a very low weight.
Also backed Mon Mome and My Will just cause I dreamed these two fought out the finish and My Will won so I parted with silly money.
Maljimar is the winner and thats because his sire is called ‘marble miller’.
Don’t know if he’ll stay, but then he is 40/1.
Don’t know how you could back a horse to win the National that has never won over 3 miles before!
GRAND NATIONAL
Madison Du Berlais
(158) Well handicapped on last season’s form, disappointed this term. Flattered 2nd when others faltered after chasing winner in King George. Flat track should suit. Possibly best able to dominate from the front which is unlikely here. Acts on soft and good going.
Mon Mome
(155) Proved his fitness, back to his best when 3rd in Gold Cup; flattered by staying on past those who chased the top horses. Rise of just 7 lbs for winning by 12 lengths in last year’s National looks lenient (well handicapped). Given a real chance of becoming first since Red Rum to win two Nationals. Won’t be 100/1 this time! Possibly best on good / good-soft.
Black Apalachi
(154) Irish trained. Going well at head of affairs last year, jumped well on the first circuit, not so well the few before falling second Bechers Brook (now only on 1lb higher mark). Also won 08 Becher Chase. Encouraging 2nd in Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) latest start, staying on after being outpaced. Beaten 8 lengths but now 5lbs better off with victor and stable mate Vic Venturi. Effective on good and soft.
Joe Lively
(154) Not jumped as well or same enthusiasm since injury. Respectable effort when 3rd to Taranis penultimate start, poor 14th in William Hill Chase since, unable to maintain customary prominent position. Probably acted on any going prior to a tendon injury.
Vic Venturi
(154) Irish. Stayed 3m2f to win slowly run Becher Chase in November, raised 6lbs for that and form has not worked out well. Good winner of Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Not as certain to be as effective over this trip as his stable companion Black Appalachi. Disappointed in two Irish Grand Nationals at 3m5f, though too soon to say he definitely doesn’t stay. Best winning form on soft, but excellent 2nd at the 08 Punchestown Festival (at the time his best performance) suggests equally effective on good.
Comply Or Die
(153) Winner of this in 08. Most horses are on the downgrade at 11 years old, but did run well for a long way at Cheltenham. Beaten by only Mon Mome last year. Is now just 8lbs better off for 12 lengths. Slackening of pace after two front runners fell at second Becher’s probably did not help. Now 1lb lower mark than 09, 14lbs higher than in 08. Possibly best on good / good-soft going.
Don’t Push It
(153) Pulled up last time in Pertemps Hurdle, possibly not soft enough for him. Winner over Aintree’s Mildmay fences but can make mistakes. Proven at up to 3m3f. AP McCoy is apparently choosing between him and stable companion Can’t Buy Time.
Made In Taipan
(152) Irish. Ran well last time out at Navan, but last of 7 only start at as far as 3m. Highly unlikely to stay. Raced with give in the ground.
Niche Market
(152) No experience of National fences but looks an ideal Aintree type, stays and jumps supremely well. Only 9th last time in William Hill Chase, weakening late. Could’ve done without being upped 4lbs for close second in Aon. Possibly more improvement to come back over further. Irish National winner last try at 3m5f+. Races prominently, best on good / good-soft. Ridden by Harry Skelton who is unable to claim his apprentice allowance in this race.
Tricky Trickster
(152) Won 4m NH Chase last season (trained by Twiston-Davis). Now with Paul Nicholls; improved form to just get up and win Aon Chase. Given plenty to do and making up a lot of ground to beat Niche Market (who is now 3lbs better off). Very disappointing run in Gold Cup. Only 3 weeks to recover from whatever ailed him that day. Good jumper. Acts on heavy and good ground.
Cloudy Lane
(151) Trained by Grand National legend “Ginger” McCain’s son. Not at best any start this term, only 4th in Grimthorpe Chase (3¼m) last time off this mark. Dropped 7lbs since last year when unseated at The Chair. Joint favourite off only 141 when below form 6th in 08. Acts on heavy and good ground.
Dream Alliance
(151) Raised 9lbs for Welsh National win. Form worked out well, but jumping problems resurfaced next time. Seems to lack confidence in his jumping once making a mistake. Best chase form on a soft surface and acts well on heavy.
Nozic
(150) 9th of 10 finishers in Welsh National. Weakening late, which suggests he’s an unlikely stayer. Did not seem to take to these fences when only 12th of 17 finishers in Topham last year. Best form on soft ground and acts on heavy.
My Will
(150) Dropped 2lbs since last year. Looked a handicap snip that day and although 3rd was a little disappointing. Needs a return to form; that Aintree run preceded by a good 5th in Gold Cup last term, below form 7th at Cheltenham this time. Acts on any going.
Pablo du Charmil
(150) Ex-2miler. Proved he gets 3m well enough when 4th at Uttoxeter in May, but unlikely to stay 4½m. Fell last time which is always a worry. Acts on any going.
Backstage
(148) Irish. Improved form over the last year has come on a sound surface. Upped 11lbs for 10 length win at Ffos Las, jumping well. Below form on softer going, over inadequate 2½m twice since (bit disappointing latest run on heavy). Yet to race over morer than 3m1½f but races as if will stay further. 20/1, only 8th in 09 Fox Hunter Chase over these fences. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this in 07 with Silver Birch.
Ballyholland
(148) Irish. Won Perth Gold Cup (3m) last season by 11 lengths and Galway Plate (2¾m) by 8 in the summer. Both on a sound surface. Below form last time on very soft. Speed he shows means it is difficult to see him staying 4½m.
Beat The Boys
(148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface.
Preists Leap
(148) Irish. Dual Thyestes chase winner. Dropped 5lbs since only 14th of 17 finishers last year, faded badly from prominent position 2 out. No form this term and possibly lost his confidence jumping. Probably suited by plenty of give underfoot.
Can’t Buy Time
(147) Not the speed for 2½m on sound surface last time. Won 2m5f on soft at Cheltenham, idling on run-in. Appeared not to stay 4m when 4th in 09 NH Chase behind Tricky Trickster; going best of all two out. Fell in Grand National last year. Equally effective on soft and good ground, although stamina will be at a premium the softer it gets.
Snowy Morning
(147) Well handicapped, down 9lbs since 9th in last year’s race, yet not at best all last season. Often makes mistakes; good round of jumping (now on only 2lbs higher mark) when close 3rd to Comply Or Die in 08. Finished with flourish when 3rd over inadequate 2m1f last start, looked out of it two out. Shows signs of temperament but done nothing wrong at Aintree. Plenty of winning form on very soft, but best performances (placed efforts) have come on good / good-soft
Big Fella Thanks
(146) Best handicapped horse in this year’s race. Improved to win Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup (2½m). Showed speed, led on the bridle before idling; much more in hand than distances suggest. “Unseated rider” penultimate start, but more stumbled than unseated. Jumped well in the main when 6th, good run for a novice in last year’s National, now off a 3lb lower mark. Not 100% certain to stay. Reduction of pace after second Bechers meant less emphasis on stamina than usual. Certainly bred to stay. Ruby Walsh rides. Acts on a soft and firm surface.
Character Building
(145) Always been a character. Looked unenthusiastic, 12th in William Hill Chase. Idles badly and rider has to put his head in front close to the line. Won 09 Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham Festival. Does not have the expected strike rate of one of his ability. Stays and jumps well. Been bought by the Thomson’s (Chieveley Park Stud) who bought Party Politics shortly before his victory. Equally effective on good or heavy.
State Of Play
(145) Winner of 2006 Hennessey (same mark here) and pulled up in this season’s race in November on first run since 4th in last year’s National. Small horse, made a few mistakes there and now off 5lbs lower mark. Good record fresh, so long absence not such a worry. Thought by connections better away from very soft ground. Won Charlie Hall on a firm surface, Hennessey on soft.
Ellerslie George
(144) Has won left-handed, but can jump right and improved to win Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, making all. Form worked out well; but ran disappointingly since, including last of 7 latest run at Newbury. Made a mistake at the first on two tries over National fences. Likes to lead. Probably acts on any going.
Ballyfitz
(143) Another runner for the Twiston-Davis yard. Previous winner of Pertemps Hurdle, disappointing 13th in the race last time. Better handicapped over fences, proved he stays 3½m when good 4th in Blue Square Gold Cup (3½m). Needs to improve his jumping for Aintree. Acts on good as well as heavy going.
Conna Castle
(143) Poor strike rate and possibly best right-handed. Does not look the ideal type for the Grand National. Unseated latest start (2¼m, Feb) and very doubtful stayer. Acts on good and heavy going
Erics Charm
(143) 12 year old who’s on a hat-trick. Proved he can win left-handed under McCoy at Newbury, form beginning to work out. Jumps well when racing prominently, less well when behind horses. Genuine and acts on any going.
King John’s Castle
(143) 2nd to Comply Or Die in 08. 2lbs higher now but is 11 years old. Injured since and difficult to know just how much ability he retains. Given plenty to do over hurdles recently. National 2nd on good, also acts on very soft.
Ollie Magern
(143) 12 year old. Possibly on the downgrade these days, but ran best race since reappearance when 7th in William Hill Chase. Sometimes moody. Fell at 2nd fence last year. Probably acts on any going, poor mover.
Arbor Supreme
(142) Got poor ride last time, held up and still to be asked for an effort when winner had gone for home. Finishing strongly but too late (2m5f on heavy). Stays at least 3m6f, unseated penultimate start. Winner on soft and good ground. Capable of improvement.
Maljimar
(142) Runner-up to A. P. McCoy and Witchita Lineman in last year’s William Hill Chase. Hasn’t raced since being placed in 3m7f slowly run X-Country chase in December. However, weakened in latter stages of truly run event at 3m3½f. Has finished weakly more than once and made mistakes.
Irish Raptor
(141) Good record over Aintree fences, winner and 2nd in Topham (2m5½f). Unseated rider in latest Becher Chase. Struggled when racing beyond 3m2f and probably won’t get home. Acts on soft and good going.
Mr Pointment
(141) Becher winner. Pulled up, weakened latter stages of 08 National for Nicholls. Nowhere near best for new connections in Gold Cup, looking temperamental. Best run on soft, also winner on good. Has had breathing problems and broken blood vessels.
Piraya
(141) Not lived up to expectations since coming over from France. Poor run latest start in Racing Post Chase. Yet to race beyond 3m. Seems lazy these days. Acts on a soft surface.
The Package
(141) Very well handicapped and Improving, 2nd in William Hill Chase finishing best of all last time. Bred to stay; by one Ascot Gold Cup winner in Kayf Tara, out of a mare who is by another, Ardross. Jumps well for a novice. Quirky and not the strike rate you’d expect of one of his ability, done nothing wrong last two starts. Probably equally effective on soft and good going
Hello Bud
(140) 12 year old, but improved at 11, winning Scottish National. Thought by some best on a sound surface: but good 3rd on soft to Gallant Nuit off a 7lb higher mark (same as here). Good experience, but not recovered just 8 days later in Becher chase. Inadequate test of 3m1½f last time. Trainer’s son may ride, won’t be able to claim his allowance in the Grand National and will effectively be a 7lb penalty. Sam Twiston-Davis has ridden him the last 3 runs, best efforts so far under Paddy Brennan. Jumps well and races prominently.
Palypso De Creek
(140) Good record in France before coming over here. Only 14th in Pertemps Hurdle last time, better over fences. Good 2nd to Our Vic in Peter Marsh (3m on very soft), finishing well. Faded latter stages in Becher Chase (3m2f) behind Vic Venturi, racing with head a little high, possibly not enjoying these fences. Best form on a soft surface.
Abbeybraney
(139) Pulled up in NH Chase last time, possibly better on softer. Stays well, makes mistakes. Does not have a good strike rate for one of his ability.
Cerium
(139) Poor mover. Possibly flattered 5th in this last year. Allowed to close up when pace slackened. Somehow suffered fractured skull in race. First race since when outclassed in Gold Cup. Not enough promise to suggest he’s likely to run well here. Acts on a soft surface. Inconsistent.
Flintoff
(139) Part owned by the man himself. Out and out stayer who makes mistakes. Lazy and will be suited if it comes up a bog.
Royal Rosa
(139) 11 year old, 6th in Scottish National in 08. Lightly raced stayer, poor win / run ratio. Carrying 6lbs overweight, 3rd behind Vic Venturi in Becher Chase (November), disappointing since. Acts on good and a soft surface.
Silver Birch
(139) Winner of 07 National, 13 years old now and probably on the downgrade. Still going reasonably when falling second Bechers last year. Well behind in X-Country Chase at Cheltenham latest start. Won Grand National on good and Welsh National on very soft going.
Knowhere
(138) Fell in William Hill Chase, bringing down another horse too. Jumping is worse than ever this season (mistakes all starts). Now 12 years old and on the downgrade, though handicap mark reflects that. Off a mark 17lbs lower than last year. Knowhere near his best form; did manage a 2¼ length 2nd to Eric’s Charm (same terms here) penultimate start, but is inconsistent. Acts on good-firm and soft going. Failed to get around in 3 Grand Nationals, unseating twice.
Oodachee
(138) Irish 11 year old. Last of 10 finishers in Kim Muir Chase last time. Has run well (2nd) in the Topham and Irish National. Acts on good-firm and good-soft.
Whinstone Boy
(138) Progressive Irish chaser, winner of his last two starts, suited by the very soft conditions, making all and jumping well. Should stay further than 3 miles. Trainer James Joseph Mangan won the National with Monty’s Pass.
Value Is EverythingExcellent work Ginge,you have summed up the winner Succinctly!
I am pleased Davy Casey is fit to ride him!
I’ll be disappointed if Knowhere doesn’t make the cut, but i’d be bitterly disappointed if old Silver Birch just doesn’t make it. The ulitmate swan song for a great horse would be a good showing on Saturday.
I’m as stubborn as they come, so i still have my fingers crossed that the forecast’s are all wrong and there is infact a cluster of rain coming for us come Saturday.
Excellent post Ginger.
A Big Fella Thanks to you.
The Package will be a first class delivery on Saturday….
My Final Five:
17 123138 Backstage 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott
20 183223 Snowy Morning 10 10-13 W P Mullins D J Casey
21 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill
22 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls R Walsh
31 0-37U2 Arbor Supreme 8 10-8 W P Mullins Paul TownendSo far as I can tell only Snowy Morning is a perfect stats fit (due to having a Key Race performance, his 2nd in the RSA). However the other 4 all meet the other fundamental stats.
Dismissed were
I can’t have
Of my five, I can’t really split them but preference goes to Backstage, then Can’t Buy Time and Arbor Supreme. Reservations persist about Big Fella staying effectively and Snowy being plain good enough.My final picks are…
51U-02 Black Apalachi 11-6
– He clearly loves it round Aintree and was running too well last year to ignore. His weight is a worry, but i have full confidence that he can carry it. Another worry is that he lands steeply at times (which i even guessed would get him in trouble at Becher’s last year). His price is getting a bit too low for comfort too, but that’s not a legit reason to go against him.
12187 Ellerslie George 10-10
– A year ago i wouldn’t have even given this one a second look, but when he got me a heartbreaking second before taking the Badger Ales; the National sprung straight to mind. I knew he had disappointed over the course on two occasions, but he’s clearly improved this season, despite his last two starts not being up to par. He is really nicely weighted too.
735U87 Hello Bud 10-6
– He has been out of form this season, but his Scottish National win along with his convincing Cheltenham run in November and his good showing in the Becher, despite the trip being way too short for him, is enough for me to believe he has what it takes. His attractive weight also makes him an obvious choice.
PP462F Knowhere 10-4
– I’ve always liked this one, but i was very close to turning away, but the way he ran in the veterans chase 2 starts ago was too irresistible to ignore. He has the class to win and has a very winnable weight on his back. He was coming into it before coming down in 08 when he had 11-11 on his back; with 21lbs less i really believe he can make the frame, even at 12.
395467 Ollie Magern 10-9
– Again a classy runner with a winnable weight. The numbers next to his name may not seem too appealing, but the way he has been finishing seems to be screaming to me that 1; he’s still got a spark and 2; a further trip will suit beautifully.
780U0 Preists Leap 11-0
– If being a dual Thyestes winner (a race also won by Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde) isn’t enough; he was running like a charm last year before getting injured. I was let down with his unseating at the first in the Bobbyjo Chase where i think he would have come very close. The weight isn’t as appealing as one would prefer, but i would give him a serious shout.
My final picks
1st Mon Mome
2nd Comply Or Die
3rd My Will
4th State Of Play
5th Cerium
6th Big Fella ThanksMy final 6 (in any order):
Arbor Supreme
Don’t Push It
State Of Play
Snowy Morning
Character Building
Irish RaptorSaid it before, so I’ll say it again – in no particular order
Eric’s Charm
Comply Or Die
Big Fella Thanks
Can’t Buy TimeTwitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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