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There’s only 22 days between the Gold Cup and the National this season. You would have to think it unlikely Denman would run, even if connections left him in the race for that long (which I’m not convinced they will).
Perversely, I think Denman a much more likely National runner if he is beaten by Kauto Star, than if he wins the Gold Cup.
Yeah that’s what I was trying to say
Considering how tired Denman finished when winning the Gold Cup, does he have a prayer of staying a truely-run 4m4f?
DV has been added to the betfair market.
Re-edit: Apart from having Nonoalco 3 generations back and Abernant 5 generations back, there is no reason why Nozic shouldn’t stay. I’m not taking too much notice of the actual WN run, as Nicholls said beforehand that the horse was in good form. I’m encouraged by that, as the horse had seemingly been out of form ever since the Rowland Meyrick. Still doesn’t make too much sense, but I was really impressed by the Boxing Day 2008 run. End of re-edit.
Had a couple of bob on Will Be Done on Melbourne Cup day, as I couldn’t work out where one would run a 148 rated staying chaser other than the National. McCain has gone on about the horse’s inexperience, and not throwing him in the deep end, but his 11 Chase starts is fairly typical for GN winners.
Have only just realised via the Thyestes entries that Preists Leap had a run in December, and another on New Year’s Day, so I’ve had a small top up on him. I thought I had done my dough on him, as he hadn’t reappeared since apparently injuring himself towards the end of last year’s GN.
Mid-division, headway to chase leaders 17th, mistake 3 out, hung badly left and weakened quickly after next
I’m taking the chance that the hung badly left shows that the horse got injured, rather than he didn’t stay.
5 of the past 9 winners ran in the previous GN.Kifill, I dont think Denman finished that tired when winning his Gold Cup, he just started wandering, as he got lonely being alone for so long! He obviously wouldnt be allowed race so freely over 4m4f, and I think there is every chance he will get the trip well enough.
That is what I was saying, if Kauto beats Denman at Cheltenham, then theres a better chance of Denman going to Aintree!!!
Wrong thread, but good grief, Monkerhostin’s got an entry on Saturday. I thought we had seen the last of him.
PN has gone on record and written in his column in the RP that Denman WON’T be going for the National.
I would consider it a waste of money anyone looking to back this antepost!
I had fun killing time whilst no national hunt racing has been on in past 48 hours and i’ve written down all winners of a Class 1 Chase in the past 3 seasons in UK and IRE.
As you can imagine, this has given me a long list to go at. then i have dismissed the 2 to 2&1/2 milers from that list and also scratched the 6/7yo’s and 12yo+ horses.
Its kind of a trends way of looking at it, in that you really do need a classy horse for the national and i use a Class 1 (formally "A") as my base.
I am left with over 20 horses and from this i have begun researching whether the GN will be the target, if they are likely to get in etc etc.
Guess i could wait for the entries but thought i would try and catch a few exchange layers on the cold…
GERALD – thanks for DV, will keep an eye on what Nicholls does with the poor beast.
Intersting that Will Be Done was brought back quietly in a novice hurdle at Leicester over Christmas, after being off the track since January, and having only ever run over fences beforehand.
The stable wouldn’t be trying to preserve his steeplechase mark of 147 for a tilt at the National, would they? I hear they quite like to have a dash in the race.
I’ve taken an average of 214 on BetFair.
Nice spot, Grass. You’d just have to hope that the gelding has learned a bit about jumping after nearly sawing one of the fences in half at both Haydock and Wetherby last winter. If he has, he’d be a more obviously progressive type than some of the possible McCain Jr National aspirants such as Cloudy Lane.
The trainer has long since been of the opinion that Will Be Done is best suited by flat tracks, though I can’t recall him having ever mentioned the National as a target hitherto.
I’d be interested to see if he gets an entry in the Red Square Gold Cup this winter – a litmus test of whether Will Be Done can stay a trip, but also, helpfully, a week or two after the National weights have been published.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Trainer says ‘one avenue might be to explore the fact that he remains a novice over hurdles; it is a possibility he will be given an outing over the smaller obstacles when he first appears later in the year. However, I can’t wait to see him back over fences as I think there might be a very decent prize to be won with him’. His distance is down as 2 1/2 – 3 miles though, soft ground. Whether the National is that race I’m not sure.
The trainer has long since been of the opinion that Will Be Done is best suited by flat tracks, though I can’t recall him having ever mentioned the National as a target hitherto.
I’ve never heard the National touted by McCain as a target either, J….just pure speculation on my part.
I’m doing an update on my Forty for RA in January, and these are my notes for Will Be Done (written yesterday):
Didn’t get back to the track until late December, so presumably quite hard to train, but was smooth winner of a 21f novice hurdle on that start, staying on well in the Soft ground. Interesting that connections opted for a novice hurdle for his return, and it’s possible that they are looking to preserve his current handicap mark of 147 over fences. That kind of rating usually gives you a fighting chance in the National, and though his stamina over marathon trips is unproven, it would be no surprise to see him given an entry for the big race at Aintree.
We’ll just need to wait and see.
Will Be Done fails 2 critical stats at least, still hasn’t won a chase over 3m and hasn’t won/placed in a crucial "key signifier" race (basically the nationals/hennessy/top2 around aintree).
Could place though who knows.
No surprise to hear me say I will be getting stuck into Big Fella Thanks once again. Having bet him as a novice last season at 50/1 to howls of derision ,that a novice could never handle the GN,he put up a perfectly acceptable performance in finishing 6th. This is his turn. Hope Christian rides again
Sorry to go off topic but whats the news on Iron Man ?Roddy.
Also liked the look of that one you had running on Welsh National day ,a nice stayer in the making?Roddy, have to agree with u about the ‘Big Fella’, he’ll improve a bundle this time around. Him, along with Dream Alliance and War of Attrition, who ran a cracker over hurdlesat Leopardstown over Christmas, are my fancies. I think he 33/1 about Dream Alliance in particular, stands out as good value.
I’m still very keen on Black Apalachi, who is being trained for the race. Loves it around there and is still quite unexposed!
My Will at 40/1 – 3rd last year, came a decent second to The Listener at Down Royal and ran respectively in the Hennessy – only problem would be to see what kind of weight he will have to carry (current mark is 151) but definitely has another live chance after being favourite in 2009.
Fellow 10 year old Butler’s Cabin would be no forlorn hope either, he at least completed in 2009 when backed into favouritism and at 33/1 at the moment is worth a few quid e/w.
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