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I am pretty surprised a lot of you are going for Snowy Morning as he has had two goes at the National and on the first occasion he ran well but on the second occasion he patently failed to stay!! I think his time has come and gone and you ought to be more interested in Arbor Supreme. But hey what do I know?
I think SM stays, but probably lacks the pace/gears to serve it up over the last 5/6 furlongs or so – looks a bit of a plodder to me, but think he will be involved so have backed at a place accordingly. I like Arbor Supreme too, his win in the Porterstown in 2008 is a good form marker (3m5f win). Think I’ll revisit the National over Easter now, wait for the final 40.
I am pretty surprised a lot of you are going for Snowy Morning as he has had two goes at the National and on the first occasion he ran well but on the second occasion he patently failed to stay!! I think his time has come and gone and you ought to be more interested in Arbor Supreme. But hey what do I know?
He was carrying 11,8 last year… there’s no wonder he struggled last year whereas in 08 he only had 11,1.
A lot of rubbish is talked about weight in this race. It is the weight compared to the other runners that makes the difference (how well in) not the physical weight carried.
can’t get over how all of last years runners seem to be so well in this time around.
Ginger, look at the facts from the last 20 years – no winner had physical weight over 11st1, the relative handicap weight ("well-in") you refer to is merely peripheral to this main statistic; it is therefore much easier to pick a shortlist from of those runners around 10st6 to 11st to try and decipher a National winner – I’m sure that there were horses down the years who were considered "well-in" off top weight or over 11st1 but failed to win.
Rich,
There’s always talk about bottom weights having a better chance, but is this correct?
There’s been times in the past when those carrying 11 st or more were vastly outnumbered. In 1997 only 1 of 36 (Master Oats) carried more than 11 st. In 1985, 89 and 90 only 2; and in 88, 94, 98, 99 only 3 carried 11 stones +. Surely you can’t expect higher weights to win or place as often?
Things have changed in the last few years
This year 10 of the 12 ante-post shortest priced horses are set to carry 11 st + if Mon Mome ends up top weight.The average price of a top weight in the last 25 years is 16/1. So it is probably just a coincidence that no top weight has won the race in 20 odd years. Some of those top weights were automatic top weights from the Czech Republic etc at 200/1 or more.
I have the information somewhere, but I believe in the last 25 years less than 18% of participents carried 11 st or more. With over 82% carrying less than 11 st.
Also, when taking in to account the difference in numbers; those carrying more than 11 stone have a far better record of being placed than those lower than 11 st.
Although there has been no winner, many highly weighted horses have come close. If only around seven horses were taken out of the last seven Nationals top weights would’ve won 3 Nationals.
This all implies to me that any weight statistics for the winner are a coincidence.Value Is EverythingI am pretty surprised a lot of you are going for Snowy Morning as he has had two goes at the National and on the first occasion he ran well but on the second occasion he patently failed to stay!! I think his time has come and gone and you ought to be more interested in Arbor Supreme. But hey what do I know?
He was carrying 11,8 last year… there’s no wonder he struggled last year whereas in 08 he only had 11,1.
I would have thought that at eight or nine years old the horse would generally be at its peak and as a ten year old I personally cant see it improving.However in a few weeks we shall see!! And as far as the weight is concerned it would appear to be an animal in decline and thats not the kind of horse I will be backing in the National.
Also is there a horse that has won the National at its third attempt?I am pretty surprised a lot of you are going for Snowy Morning as he has had two goes at the National and on the first occasion he ran well but on the second occasion he patently failed to stay!! I think his time has come and gone and you ought to be more interested in Arbor Supreme. But hey what do I know?
He was carrying 11,8 last year… there’s no wonder he struggled last year whereas in 08 he only had 11,1.
I would have thought that at eight or nine years old the horse would generally be at its peak and as a ten year old I personally cant see it improving.However in a few weeks we shall see!! And as far as the weight is concerned it would appear to be an animal in decline and thats not the kind of horse I will be backing in the National.
Also is there a horse that has won the National at its third attempt?I dunno; 10 is a popular winning age…
Amberleigh House won on his third try…
Took Team Spirit 5 times to win…
Little Polveir was running for the 4th time when he won
Lescargot won on his third tryAnd there were a few that won after a few tries in the 1800’s, early 1900’s
So it’s not too uncommon to see a horse winning after a few attempts…
I haven’t watched a re run of last years race yet, but I believe Snowy made a horlicks of the water jump. A few years ago he was thought of as Gold Cup standard and his National weights have been allocated accordingly. I know he’s still capable of making a complete hash of one of the fences, but if he doesn’t and his weight doesn’t go up too much I’m hoping for a mighty run from him. He’s a fine, big horse with a touch of class, and hopefully has strengthened up even further over the past couple of years. Having backed half the field already, I’m quite pleased that the majority of my horses still appear to be running. If The Chief did get in I think I’d put the mortgage on him because he would fight all the way to the line, but it does look as if @ Hello Bud will be the cut off point. Whatever happens, this is the most fascinating National that I can remember. As ever, I shall sink into a depression the minute it’s over, because I look forward to it every year so much.
I haven’t watched a re run of last years race yet, but I believe Snowy made a horlicks of the water jump. A few years ago he was thought of as Gold Cup standard and his National weights have been allocated accordingly. I know he’s still capable of making a complete hash of one of the fences, but if he doesn’t and his weight doesn’t go up too much I’m hoping for a mighty run from him. He’s a fine, big horse with a touch of class, and hopefully has strengthened up even further over the past couple of years. Having backed half the field already, I’m quite pleased that the majority of my horses still appear to be running. If The Chief did get in I think I’d put the mortgage on him because he would fight all the way to the line, but it does look as if @ Hello Bud will be the cut off point. Whatever happens, this is the most fascinating National that I can remember. As ever, I shall sink into a depression the minute it’s over, because I look forward to it every year so much.
you sound soo like me
i count down the days till the national, and then when its over i can’t wait for the following years race
having got to meet snowy morning and actually stroke the horse after he finished 3rd in his first national, ive always wanted him to win2 and a half weeks to go
vf
Like you guys; the Grand National for me is… the race. It’s the main reason why i love horse racing and my trivial knowledge on the race is ridiculous for a 17 year old. For me it’s the greatest race in the world and i count down the days for the next running from the moment the winner passes the post.
Here’s a link to last years race… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxbXMOXOIzM
Yeah Snowy did balls the water jump, but a remarkable number of runners didn’t take it well last year either, even got a faller for the first time in 31 years!
So it’s not too uncommon to see a horse winning after a few attempts…
Snowy Morning
will give his supporters a big run for their money,very safe jumper round Aintree!
You can always rely on Twister to put in a couple that can’t jump. Agree TAPK, Ballyfitz is long odds-on not to finish. Razor Royale isn’t the best of jumpers, doubt about his stamina too.
Razor Royale
probably wouldn"t run if he was with any other trainer,but i feel Nigel Twiston-Davies knows just the sort of horse required to win a National! Razor falls into the 21/2m specialist category for me,he has a touch of the "Classifieds" about him,admittedly his jumping was bad at Kempton but when he gets into a rhythm he jumps "Big" at his fences and that would suit him at Aintree,his Racing Post victory ticks all the "Stats boys" boxes and a weight of around 10-9 would encourage his chances!He"s certainly in my 5 bets at 75"s!
i soo want cheif dan george to get in
vf
I wouldn`t worry i think he will get in ,the irish national is on the monday before so some will elect to go for that and with the daft rule that you can`t re-appear in the national within 7 days means there will be in my guess around 20 withdrawals by the 48 hour dec stage.
I’ve only just accidentally stumbled across Willie Mullins’ website, rather than his Go Racing blog.
http://www.wpmullins.com/index.htm
This is what he had to say about Thousand Stars on Friday:-
"We are expecting a big run."
Maybe occasionally worth looking at.
You can always rely on Twister to put in a couple that can’t jump. Agree TAPK, Ballyfitz is long odds-on not to finish. Razor Royale isn’t the best of jumpers, doubt about his stamina too.
Razor Royale
probably wouldn"t run if he was with any other trainer,but i feel Nigel Twiston-Davies knows just the sort of horse required to win a National! Razor
falls into the 21/2m specialist category for me
,he has a touch of the "Classifieds" about him,admittedly his jumping was bad at Kempton but when he gets into a rhythm he jumps "Big" at his fences and that would suit him at Aintree,his Racing Post victory ticks all the "Stats boys" boxes and a weight of around 10-9 would encourage his chances!He"s certainly in my 5 bets at 75"s!
You don’t fall for that specialist 2 1/2 miler rubbish do you TAPK?
Not that I’d call Razor Royale a specialist 2 1/2 miler.Who was the last 2 1/2 miler to win a National?
It is just a myth put about by owners and trainers who just want to justify having a runner in the National.
Value Is EverythingYou can always rely on Twister to put in a couple that can’t jump. Agree TAPK, Ballyfitz is long odds-on not to finish. Razor Royale isn’t the best of jumpers, doubt about his stamina too.
Razor Royale
probably wouldn"t run if he was with any other trainer,but i feel Nigel Twiston-Davies knows just the sort of horse required to win a National! Razor
falls into the 21/2m specialist category for me
,he has a touch of the "Classifieds" about him,admittedly his jumping was bad at Kempton but when he gets into a rhythm he jumps "Big" at his fences and that would suit him at Aintree,his Racing Post victory ticks all the "Stats boys" boxes and a weight of around 10-9 would encourage his chances!He"s certainly in my 5 bets at 75"s!
You don’t fall for that specialist 2 1/2 miler rubbish do you TAPK?
Not that I’d call Razor Royale a specialist 2 1/2 miler.Who was the last 2 1/2 miler to win a National?
It is just a myth put about by owners and trainers who just want to justify having a runner in the National.
… Montys Pass?
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