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Ballyfitz would be my idea of NTD’s best runner in the GN. Should get in ( 44 at moment )- ran ok in welsh national and Vodka race recently.
Backed Ollie at 150/1; after missing Mon Mome so often at huge prices I’m not risking this huge price. Also thinking of his form lines with State of Play [who I still fancy for the race]. Probably get scratched on Tuesday. I had totally forgotten Ballyfitz [the NTD horse who can’t jump] and he is my bogey horse for this year. Will probably have a last minute panic bet on him.
had a look at a few – what are the opinions on iris de balme ? looking an interesting runner at that price to me
If back to his Scottish National form, he could be of serious interest, I still can’t believe how easy it was for him that day. Would be great to see a smaller stable win. He hasn’t looked the part recently though, I’m sure I read that he finished distressed at Doncaster. Always a risk Ante-post I suppose.
I’m on The Package 33/1 (not certain to run), and Maljimar 40/1 (not certain to get in) from when the weights came out.
Ballyfitz would be my idea of NTD’s best runner in the GN. Should get in ( 44 at moment )- ran ok in welsh national and Vodka race recently.
I agree with this (see many pages back) but I got laughed down because apparently the horse doesnt jump well enough!
I’m on at 313/1. I’d love for this to win
- Total Posts 17716
After the Grand National you will look back at this post and wonder how does Fist know these things
Don’t Push It ran the perfect Grand National trial in the Pertempts Final at Cheltenham
and his for figures now look like this:-P02201-423P Don’t Push It.
I’d say that looks just about perfect for a future Grand National winner.
You know, Fist, I was thinking of this horse yesterday because I was pondering on how you used to tell us that Kauto Star was going to be the best horse for many years
and how insistent you were about Binny. I wasn’t sure what had happened to DPI at Cheltenham. I may have to have an ew on him to cover myself if he wins, although I’d have to say I would never have chosen the horse myself. Ballyfitz is different; he’s my ‘Darkness’ for this year, the difference being that, although he can’t jump he does stay, and he’s the perfect age and weight. He was on my shortlist for last year, as well, and his price will come in after tomorrow if he’s still down to run. If you looked at him on form alone without having seen how he runs I bet he’d still be in a short list, because he doesn’t actually ever fall and he’s always staying on at the end. This years race is a complete nightmare.
Surely The Package is a real live contender for the National if he gets in. He’ll be off a good racing weight and looks like he’ll get the trip the way he finished in the Racing Post trophy. I do like the Dessie Hughes pair too, be interesting to see which horse Paddy Flood opts for.
had a look at a few – what are the opinions on iris de balme ? looking an interesting runner at that price to me
Both Iris de Balme and New Alco have been taken out according to Sporting Life
provisional shortlist:
13 -83529 Niche Market 25 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
23 112313 Backstage 62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
28 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time 35 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 168
31 183223 Snowy Morning 41 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 166
32 6-P3UF Air Force One 24 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
33 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 176
50 0-37U2 Arbor Supreme 41 8 10-8 W P Mullins 142 165 173I haven’t had a serious look at this yet but for a while now I’ve been thinking Comply Or Die is a cracking bet at 25/1.
My shortlist at the moment:
Don’t Push It (intriguing preparation, looks like will stay, AP on board?)
Hello Bud (ideal racing style, ground probably OK, definitely stays)
Ballyfitz (ground probably OK, stays)
State Of Play (classy, last year’s form, weight?)Don’t Push It is my main hope, currently 55 on betfair. After NTD’s late flurry at Cheltenham inc. the big one all of his horses must be closely considered now for the GN in my opinion – he is a dab hand at training one up for the race.
DPI – major canine tendencies, dreadful in the pertemps, ability is there somewhere but no-one really knows where exactly? Too much weight.
Hello Bud – completely out of form and at 12 may have ‘gone’
Ballyfitz – well he hits a fair few every time, suppose 5th in the welsh gives him a squeak?
SoP – one dreadful run this season and surely no realistic win chance with that prep?
Just thoughts off the cuff!
I’ve been impressed with DPI this season so far, and his form figures aren’t too dissimilar from Mon Mome’s last season (DPI this season – 423P – Mon Mome 08/09 – 218278) ok less runs and no wins, but the two placed efforts inc. one behind the good Galant Nuit are encouraging. JP McManus has long regarded him as a bit of an enignma, but definitely ability to win a big race.
Hello Bud at 12 y/o has found the rise in weights for his excellent 2008 a bit too much so far but his bold front-running tactics and super jumping will stand him in good stead for this, will stay out of trouble too. Has a good weight (10-6) and his mark has slowly returned to an achievable level now. A good each way bet at around 50/1 in my opinion.
Ballyfitz has some good form indicators, in the Welsh Nat as you say and has been over hurdles to maintain his fences rating – good weight, 10-9 and although jumping isn’t always the best I can see him being involved. Another good ew.
State Of Play is based solely on last year’s performance which IMO was pretty good. Bit sceptical and concerned over EW’s prep for the GN so far (tough ask in the Hennessy, PU) and doesn’t give us much in terms of where he is in 2010. But on last year, his run makes him of interest with a low weight (10-11).
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