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Okay Peter, you know this has to be done – we are heading for the one!
Chuck those that haven’t won a 25k chase.
Chuck Silver Birch because he is 13yo.
Chuck Ollie Magern, if he ain’t already chucked, because he is Ollie Magern.Left with two.
Chuck Irish Raptor, because he supposedly doesn’t stay.
Only horse left standing is Hello Bud.
State Of Play is the horse for me been saying it since November he win the National.
If only the weights were to stay the way they are today!
Snowy Morning
with less than 11 stone would do for me!
My ‘first glance’ four
158 Madison Du Berlais
155 Mon Mome
153 Comply Or Die
151 PossolMore considered thoughts to follow.
I see your Snowy Morning Gord and I raise you with….
Gone To Lunch and Character Building!
Lovely racing weights for these pair
Okay Peter, you know this has to be done – we are heading for the one!
Chuck those that haven’t won a 25k chase.
Chuck Silver Birch because he is 13yo.
Chuck Ollie Magern, if he ain’t already chucked, because he is Ollie Magern.Left with two.
Chuck Irish Raptor, because he supposedly doesn’t stay.
Only horse left standing is Hello Bud.
I was actually thinking of the Aintree Factor as 9 of the last 16 winners had raced over the Aintree fences before winning (7 in the last decade) which would leave us with…
Ollie Magern
Chelsea Harbour
Hello Bud
Irish Raptor
Silver BirchI’ve noted that i don’t think Irish Raptor will stay, Silver Birch is 13 and long in the tooth, Ollie Magern has only jumped one Aintree fence and Chelsea Harbour looks a doubtful stayer…
Which again leaves us with Hello Bud, so right now i have two certain bets…
Black Apalachi
Hello BudRace is turning into a nightmare imo. Last weights day Mon Mome had 10.6 and look how much more weight he carried on the day. Looking at horses that should carry less than 11st and it’s really difficult to work out who will get into the race. Was amazed at how many horses didn’t actually run last year and I can’t see many at the top of the handicap running. Got to feel sorry for Black Apalachi being given so much weight after falling twice. Wish I’d snapped up the 66/1 for Snowy when it was available.[Not many 9 year ols running; this is giving me quite a headache because I always back 9 year olds].
Think Mon Mome has been let in a bit lightly. Upped just 7lbs for winning easily by 12 lengths. Ran off 160 in the Hennessey and 156 last time out when 4th, given an easy ride and making up ground late. Should be capable of better than that over 4m+ at Aintree, yet is now off 155.
Handicapper seems to have justified this by dropping everything else that finished behind Mon Mome last year (bar Irish Invader). Comply Or Die down 1 lb, My Will down 2 lbs, State Of Play 5 lbs, Big Fella Thanks 3 lbs, Snowy Morning 9 lbs etc. They all look reasonably treated too, but age may catch up with one or two.Already on Niche Market @ 33/1 and Hello Bud 40/1.
Could have done without former running at Newbury, but might yet improve at the extreme trip. If he can do that at 3m, what can he do at 4m+?
Glad Hello Bud has had a break after being brought down. Does seem to need to lead to jump well. Still think he is a worthy bet @ 50/1, though might not get a run / money back.
Value Is EverythingWhat do you think the cut-off will be then, smart ass?
No need to be rude Gerald.
These Grand National systems are pretty crude though. The 11 stone rule used to hold water but now that thirty horses are assigned that weight or more by the handicapper, don’t you think it’s the first rule which should be jettisoned? I’d imagine the cutoff will be 10’7, fwiw.
Grrr there am I thinking I’m being all clever by finding Hello Bud, then I come on here and find every man and his dog has picked him too. Fair point by Rory though, no way he’ll get in. 30 horses above him need to drop out. No chance. I quite liked Trabolgan as well but he needs a further dozen or so.
My shortlist (compromised of the first 55) is Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Chelsea Harbour, Eric’s Charm, Royal County Star & Cane Brake.
Not really sure where Mouse Morris is coming from with his rant about War Of Attrition’s weight- of the Irish horses he’s one of the better treated and would be well fancied were he to run. What price Mouse changes his mind or has it changed for him on mature reflection- he wouldn’t win a World hurdle if he started now.
As an aside, why do people bother entering horses like Kilbeggan Blade who are 100-1 to get a run? I can think of better ways to squander £750!Only horse left standing is Hello Bud.
What a pity he’ll be ballotted out, eh?
Hello Bud is no. 70 in the weights. No. 76 got a run last year so I wouldn’t be so sure he won’t get in.
Grrr there am I thinking I’m being all clever by finding Hello Bud, then I come on here and find every man and his dog has picked him too.
I would hardly call picking the most recent Scottish National winner a "find"… more of an obvious choice really.
I’ve been thinking as hard as i can about Preists Leap. I had his last year and he impressed me; even on ground he wouldn’t prefer. 11st might be a bit much, but i’ve decided he’s gonna be on my shortlist too…
Black Apalachi
Ellerslie George
Hello Bud
Preists LeapMy shortlist thus far… that’s right i’m gonna add to it!
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