Grand National 2010

[rory]

War Of Attrition is a FORMER Gold Cup winner, and doesn’t possess anything like the same ability as when he won his Gold Cup.

Hypothetically speaking, if Mourad was running, would 11-1 be fair

He possesses plenty of ability. Mouse Morris has simply confused himself regarding the weights. He thinks WOA has been put in 6lb higher than normal handicaps, but has simply misread the weights, assuming that Alberta’s Run is rated 164. The topweight is essentially racing of 158, meaning that WOA is on his expected mark of 149. He’s making himself look a bit of an ass.

[vikingflagship]

having a quick scan through those that i like

snowy morning
seven is my number
character building
state of play
cane brake
irish raptor
flintoff
sizing australia

vf

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

War Of Attrition is a FORMER Gold Cup winner, and doesn’t possess anything like the same ability as when he won his Gold Cup.

Neither did L’Escargo when he won it otherwise Red Rum would NEVER have beaten him the year before

Hypothetically speaking, if Mourad was running, would 11-1 be fair

[Duke Of Marmalade]

Quite like the look of Snowy Morning, should have a nice racing weight, proven he gets round and appears in better form than this time last year.

[Gerald]

Don’t like weights – prefer ratings.

158 Albertas Run
158 Madison Du Berlais
158 Notre Pere
157 Taranis
156 Our Vic
155 Mon Mome
154 Black Apalachi
154 Joe Lively
154 Vic Venturi
153 Comply Or Die
153 Don’t Push It
153 Irish Invader
152 Made In Taipan
152 Niche Market
152 Tricky Trickster
151 Casey Jones
151 Cloudy Lane
151 Dream Alliance
151 Nozic
151 Possol
151 Siegemaster
150 My Will
150 Pablo Du Charmil
149 One Cool Cookie
149 War Of Attrition
148 Backstage
148 Ballyholland
148 Beat The Boys
148 Preists Leap
148 Roulez Cool
147 Beroni
147 Can’t Buy Time
147 Le Beau Bai
147 Seven Is My Number
147 Snowy Morning
146 Air Force One
146 Big Fella Thanks
146 Darkness
146 Deutschland
146 Louping D’Ainay
145 Character Building
145 Chelsea Harbour
145 Dooneys Gate
145 Gone To Lunch
145 Kornati Kid
145 State Of Play
144 Ellerslie George
144 Follow The Plan
144 Jayo
144 Royal County Star
143 Ballyfitz
143 Conna Castle
143 Equus Maximus
143 Eric’s Charm
143 King Johns Castle
143 Ollie Magern
142 Arbor Supreme
142 Cane Brake
142 Kilcrea Castle
142 Lennon
142 Maljimar
142 New Alco
141 Bible Lord
141 Irish Raptor
141 Mr Pointment
141 Parsons Pistol
141 Piraya
141 Razor Royale
141 The Package
140 Hello Bud
140 Iris De Balme
140 Palypso De Creek
140 Trust Fund
139 Abbeybraney
139 Cerium
139 Flintoff
139 Parsons Legacy
139 Royal Rosa
139 Silver Birch
138 Coe
138 Glenfinn Captain
138 Knowhere
138 Oodachee
138 Whinstone Boy
137 Faasel
137 Mumbles Head
137 Officier De Reserve
137 Sizing Australia
137 Trabolgan
136 Chief Dan George
136 Duers
135 Ballytrim
135 Offshore Account
135 Pak Jack
134 Boychuk
134 Kings Advocate
134 Treacle
133 Galant Nuit
132 Anothercoppercoast
132 Belon Gale
132 Pomme Tiepy
130 Merigo
129 Chiaro
129 Kilbeggan Blade
128 According To John
127 Lorum Leader
127 Old Benny
124 Over The Creek
121 Cossack Dancer
120 Wee Robbie
118 Offaly
Star De Mohaison

I’m very surprised that Smith has compressed the handicap, because it means that last year’s winner is also a beneficiary this time.

Smith stood by his word regarding the Becher 5, with Royal Rosa being given 139, when his chase rating is 123 or so.

The handicapper seems very reluctant to drop Nozic any lower – how many more bad runs does the horse have to produce? In contrast, AF1 seems very well treated.

Off the top of my head, I don’t think Preists Leap is too well treated. Also off the top of my head, My Will seems to have a nice weight – now all that is required is a suitable jockey.

[Bosranic]

Comply Or Die is well treated to run into a place.

Big Fella Thanks ran an exceptional race last year for an inexperienced 7YO and now runs off 10-12.

Racing Post Chase fancy, Possol, is an improving young horse and stays well.

Air Force One is nicely weighted for a horse with a touch of class.

[vikingflagship]

more in depth list of form, age and weight of each runner

Form Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer

1) 03-P136 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O’Neill

2) 101-324 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe

3) 12-1F544 NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10 Tilly Conway Jim Dreaper IRE

4) 12/14P/-1 TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls

5) 4-61r01 OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08 David Johnson David Pipe

6) 001-P34 MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams

7) P151U-0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE

15-5003 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard

9) 0-21150 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06 James Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE

10) 1/P002-0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05 David Johnson David Pipe

11) 201-423 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill

12) 231110- IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9-11-05 Sackcloth & Ashes Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

13) 43-3U240 MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE

14) 401-0352 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9-11-04 Graham Regan Bob Buckler

15) 22121-21 TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls

16) P15P-14 CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03 Gillian Burke Noel Meade IRE

17) 31FU-36 CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr

18) PUPP/-21 DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03 The Alliance Partnership Philip Hobbs

19) 1P00-60 NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls

20) 3201-11 POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03 Neville Statham Henry Daly

21) F3-13233 SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9-11-03 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE

22) 553-205 MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls

23) 3606-4F PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02 Joe Moran David Pipe

24) r-04205 ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Charlie Swan IRE

25) P230411 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE -(NOTE – NR)

26) 0112313 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE

27) P6-5111 BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00 Cathal McGovern Colin McBratney IRE

28) FP-1P1P BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies

29) 100-000 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00 John O’Donohue/Tom O’Leary Tom O’Leary IRE

30) 212//U1-2(1)(1) ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen

31) 5-31110 BERONI (IRE) 8-10-13 Margaret O’Rourke Willie Mullins IRE

32) 314F-01 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill

33) 1P1-0131 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13 Glass Half Full Richard Lee

34) 11411P SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE) 8-10-13 David Johnson David Pipe

35) 110322 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

36) 22506-P3 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Charlie Mann

37) 2U136-2U BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls

38) 3P///3P10- DARKNESS 11-10-12 Lady Lloyd-Webber Charles Egerton

39) 113-412 DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE

40) 4/2D133- LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR

41) 143301-0 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11 Mrs E Wright John Quinn

42) F0-5260 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE

43) 02U-301 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11 Thomas Gilligan Willie Mullins IRE

44) P2-205P0 GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11 Gary Lever Jeremy Scott

45) 4116-6P KORNATI KID 8-10-11 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs

46) 60/144-P STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams

47) 00-1210 ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10 Guy Henderson Nick Mitchell

48) 112130- FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 Cavan Developments Bloodstock Oliver McKiernan IRE

49) 45-1552 JAYO (FR) 7-10-10 Peter Garvey Willie Mullins IRE

50) 11U36U ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10 Dunsany Racing Syndicate Tony Martin IRE

51) 2P-4P15 BALLYFITZ 10-10-09 Fred Mills & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies

52) 043545 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE

53) P23-15P EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

54) 02P5-01 ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood

55) 212/0-00 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE

56) 0F2-3054 OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies

57) 330-30U ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE

58) 03-635P CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08 Mount Temple Racing Sydicate Tom Taaffe IRE

59) 6126-23 KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8-10-08 Michael O’Driscoll Emma Lavelle

60) 36244/-66 LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson

61) 02P-253 MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08 Jane Williams Nick Williams

62) 0/1P025/- NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08 D McGowan & S Murphy Ferdy Murphy

63) 6FF-1FU0 BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9-10-07 Martin Tedham Andy Turnell

64) U01-4U5 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies

65) 6P/6220- MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy

66) F-051FP PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07 Robert Bagnall Noel Meade IRE

67) 000-3301 PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07 Terry Neill David Pipe

68) 13-01240 RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies

69) 03-0231 THE PACKAGE 7-10-07 David Johnson David Pipe

70) 11-035B HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies

71) P31314/-5 IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06 Lee Power & Geoff Peck Sean Curran

72) 1P6-142 PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon

73) 11P/11-1 TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06 Lord Daresbury Richard Barber

74) 23/32-31 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson

75) 50PP/05- CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy

76) P63/52-P FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05 Andrew Flintoff & Paul Beck Venetia Williams

77) 4/1PF-50 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05 Rodney Offer Philip Hobbs

78) 56/-33P5 ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson

79) 0F-26r2 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE

80) 2F0-226 COE (IRE) 8-10-04 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith

81) 4211-544 GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11-10-04 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE

82) P-3PP46 KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies

83) 3025-056 OODACHEE 11-10-04 Modreeny Syndicate Charlie Swan IRE

84) P4F1311 WHINSTONE BOY (IRE) 9-10-04 Whinstone Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE

85) 0P03-40 FAASEL (IRE) 9-10-03 Hush Hush Partnership David Pipe

86) 30-01233 MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9-10-03 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen

87) P/1r40P- OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8-10-03 Seasons Holidays Venetia Williams

88) 456-232 SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8-10-03 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE

89) 1/1///P6-4 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson

90) 115-300 CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt

91) 111P20 DUERS (IRE) 8-10-02 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier IRE

92) P01-1U0 BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9-10-01 Violet O’Leary Willie Mullins IRE

93) 20-0U00 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10-10-01 Brian Polly Charlie Swan IRE

94) 0/-P220P PAK JACK (FR) 10-10-01 The Pak Jack Partnership Richard Phillips

95) 51-63F3 BOYCHUK (IRE) 9-10-00 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs

96) 366//4-54 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10-10-00 Maine Syndicate Tom Taaffe IRE

97) 1/3F-116 TREACLE (IRE) 9-10-00 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE

98) 145-261 GALANT NUIT (FR) 6-9-13 David Parry Ferdy Murphy

99) 00F421 ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE)10-9-12 Eileen Queally Paul Roche IRE

100) 31F4-22 BELON GALE (IRE) 7-9-12 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson

101) 45-0600 POMME TIEPY (FR) 7-9-12 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

102) 61021-02D MERIGO (FR) 9-9-10 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker

103) 53414-00 CHIARO (FR) 8-9-09 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs

104) 2P6-53PP KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09 Kevin & Anne Doocey Tom George

105) 5/44-U335 ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10-9-08 Sir Robert Ogden Nicky Richards

106) 24-512P0 LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9-9-07 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland

107) 2214/-0PP OLD BENNY 9-9-07 Trevor Hemmings Alan King

108) 1342/-0PP OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04 David Johnson David Pipe

109) 253-346 COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12-9-01 The United Front Partnership Mark Bradstock

110) 0/13P/-FP5 WEE ROBBIE 10-9-00 P H Betts (Holdings) Ltd Nick Gifford

111) 2U1/P6P-4 OFFALY (IRE) 9-8-12 The Pole to Pole Partnership Pru Townsley

111 entries

38 Irish-trained

1 French-trained

THE FOLLOWING ENTRY HAS BEEN SCRATCHED: STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) (Retired)

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

Two of the horse already mention since the thread started are running in a 2m4f hurdle at Punchestown tomorrow, Deutschland and Sizing Australia

[moehat]

Abbeybraney and Trust Fund if they get in look interesting.

[KendalCavalier]

I think the handicap mark list Gerald is indeed very useful. From that list you can see which of those horses, in your own opinion, are likely improvers i.e. are capable of attaining a much higher mark than what they been given. Of course there are plenty in there that are on marks lower than what they have already achieved but it’s the improvers that tend to interest me most when the weights are first published.

Personally speaking the three likely improvers (and I reiterate it’s only my opinion) are Casey Jones, Kilcrea Castle and Whinstone Boy. Casey Jones is not a Gold Cup horse but neither do I think he should be rated 30-40lbs lower than Kauto or Denman, he’s much better than that and Kilcrea Castle could easily capable of being a 150’s horse and I’ve been impressed with Whinstone Boy and I don’t think they’ve reached his summit yet.

However, all three are still quite inexperienced chasers but they are good ones. Alright they might not actually be people’s idea of the winner because of that but all three are in my portfolio already.

[Gerald]

KC, I agree with the earlier poster (AP? edit: other thread) who put the cut off at 139, so Whinstone Lad probably won’t get in.

I know, based on earlier years, that the cutoff will be somewhere in the 70s, in terms of rank on the list, but I find it very hard to count 30 out of the top 70 that won’t run. Could we actually both turn out to be correct with our original thought a few months ago that the cut-off will be in the 140s???

[KendalCavalier]

There a lot of time between now and April 10th so I would not like to say what the cut off point will be.

What is nice however is that we should have the current Grand National, Welsh National, Scottish National and Irish National winners lining up (although I realise Niche Market will no longer be the current winner of the irish by the time they get there).

[Kopwas]

The weights look likely to be compressed so trends followers may have to adapt thinking

[Gerald]

I’ve had a go at forming a shortlist, but it is quite long.

Chuck everything rated 138 or less, because they’re not likely to get into the race.

Chuck everything that hasn’t won a chase of at least 25f. (14 out of last 16 winners.)

Chuck everything that hasn’t had at least 3 runs this season. (Apparently the last 14 winners had all run 3 or more times by the time of the Blue Square Gold Cup. Haven’t investigated this myself yet though, to know the precise details.)

Chuck everything that hasn’t got at least 3 chase RPRs at least 2 lbs higher than its GN rating. (14 out of 16 – 2 exceptions are the Irish National winners Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo.)

Haven’t bothered with age, because everything left is at least 8yo.

Ollie Magern
War Of Attrition
Our Vic
My Will
Silver Birch
Notre Pere
Gone To Lunch
Ballyfitz
Chelsea Harbour
One Cool Cookie
Madison Du Berlais
Razor Royale
Albertas Run
Don’t Push It
Hello Bud
Joe Lively
Irish Raptor
Seven Is My Number

They are in order of how well in they are on the last measure (3rd highest chase RPR minus GN rating).

I could knock another 4 or 5 out by insisting that they had won a Chase valued at least 25k

The only one who hasn’t run in at least 9 chases is Seven is My Number, who has run in 7.

[Gerald]

If one insists on removing all those currently 11 stone or more, then 5 of the 9 remaining horses are trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies.

[peter .h]

And when you take that list and take out the horses with 11 stone or more on their backs you have…

Ollie Magern
Silver Birch
Gone To Lunch
Ballyfitz
Chelsea Harbour
Razor Royale
Hello Bud
Irish Raptor
Seven Is My Number

That’s a good list. I know last year showed that the weight doesn’t mean EVERYTHING considering the first 4 home were all carrying 11 or more, but i figured i’d just see what we’d have…

[rory]

please note war of attrition is out, he will not run

Correction – please note that War Of Attrition’s trainer has thrown his toys out of the pram. When he gets a slap around the chops for being so childish from Michael O’Leary, expect a climbdown.

[Author]

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