- This topic has 631 replies, 59 voices, and was last updated 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
It’s ok to back a few in the National antepost. The example Ginger gave he’s been unlucky with the NRs and would have had to have been very lucky to have the one that was left to win the race. Not only that but go all in one horse at £40 on the day? The more that get there and run for you the better the chance you have of finding the winner imo.
—————————————
For sure it’s ok to back a few in the National if they all get there, that’s the point. I’ll be backing four myself. It’s just that punters need to be very careful they are backing horses that will get there… And the greater number of horses backed the greater the probability of getting non-runner/s… The odds offered may also sound inviting given a horse’s form, but the likelihood of getting a run is also included in that price. Many punters believe they got a good price and were just “unlucky”; when in fact they were drawn into backing a horse that bookies knew was a likely non runner.
And non-runners can’t be dismissed as “unlucky” as if they somehow don’t count to the total… Well, unless your name is Mike and you can nullify the bet just by saying those immortal words “cash out” just before everyone else gets to know it’s a non-runner.
Value Is EverythingOne blindingly simple bit of maths that GT won’t need telling, but I sometimes get the impression might be news to a few here.
Punter A, let’s call them “ante-post carpet-bombing headbanger,” backs four horses for the Grand National, all at 50/1, and three don’t run, but the other one does run and actually wins. What a clever ante-post carpet bombing headbanger, eh?!
Punter B, let’s call them “Cooler Than God,” (clue) has one bet on the Grand National at the 48-hour stage, staking the same total amount as old ante-post carpet bombing headbanger put on their quartet, and it wins at 12/1.
Who is better off?
I’ll give you a second clue – it’s not old ante-post carpet bombing headbanger and it IS the one who never had to worry about having backed a non runner.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think Ian makes a good point actually. You can back 4x 50/1 shots antepost or you can back the 2nd favourite probably on the day with the same combined stake. Chances are at least 2 of your 50/1 shots are 100/1 on the day with double the number of places too. Unless you think your 50/1 shot now is going to be 20/1 at worst on the day I wouldn’t be bothering.
My point exactly Ian.
Easier to understand using the 50/1 and 12/1 examples.
Value Is Everything“top 60 on weights day are usually guaranteed to get a run so I will be looking at the list more closely then.”
When I posted this I had forgotten that this was based on a 40 runner field and that there is now 34, so will look at top 54.
Monbeg Genius been given the all clear to race along with horses under same ownership
So the uncertainty over him taking part is now cleared upVF x
One blindingly simple bit of maths that GT won’t need telling, but I sometimes get the impression might be news to a few here.
“Punter A, let’s call them “ante-post carpet-bombing headbanger,” backs four horses for the Grand National, all at 50/1, and three don’t run, but the other one does run and actually wins. What a clever ante-post carpet bombing headbanger, eh?!
Punter B, let’s call them “Cooler Than God,” (clue) has one bet on the Grand National at the 48-hour stage, staking the same total amount as old ante-post carpet bombing headbanger put on their quartet, and it wins at 12/1.
Who is better off?
I’ll give you a second clue – it’s not old ante-post carpet bombing headbanger and it IS the one who never had to worry about having backed a non runner”.
——————–
Also:
If two of the four 50/1 shots half in price to 25/1 shots on the day of race, and two don’t run… It is not as good as a day of race punter backing the same two runners @ 25/1…Or if three turn up @ 38/1…
…And that’s again, without the day of race punter having to worry about non-runners.
Not discouraging ante-post bets – just be aware of what a difference non-runners can make.
…And despite what some might suggest – “cashing out” when things look like they’re going wrong rarely nullifies the bet anywhere near completely.Value Is EverythingIts On The Line is declared for the hunter chase at Naas on Saturday.
As mentioned earlier in the thread, a rule exists where horses that have run in a hunter chase can only then run in hunter chases for the remainder of the current season. It’s not entirely clear if this applies to foreign hunter chases, but if so then Its On The Line is out of the National.
This is how the weights could look like according to the RP’s Chris Cook
11-12 Hewick
11-7 Noble Yeats
11-5 Conflated
11-3 Capodanno, Coko Beach
11-2 Nassalam
11-1 I Am Maximus, Janidil, Minella Indo
11st Corach Rambler, Delta Work, Fakir D’Oudairies
10-13 Ash Tree Meadow
10-12 Galvin
10-10 Ain’t That A Shame, Asterion Forlonge, Farouk D’Alene, Mahler Mission, Stattler
10-9 Fury Road
10-8 Bronn, Classic Getaway, Eldorado Allen, Foxy Jacks
10-7 Letsbeclearaboutit, Salvador Ziggy, Threeunderthrufive, Vanillier
10-6 James Du Berlais, Le Milos
10-5 Dusart, Favori De Champdou, Limerick Lace, Minella Crooner
10-4 Latenightpass
10-3 Longhouse Poet, Mac Tottie, Run Wild Fred
10-2 Chambard, Chemical Energy, Meetingofthewaters, Monbeg Genius, The Goffer
10-1 Adamantly Chosen, Galia Des Liteaux, Kitty’s Light
10-0 Eklat De Rire, Embittered, Gevrey, Glengouly, Highland Hunter, Mr Incredible, Panda Boy, Roi Mage, Samcro
9-13 Busselton, Fakir D’Alene, Fantastic Lady, Fiddlerontheroof, Kinondo Kwetu, Shakem Up’arry
9-12 Malina Girl, Ontheropes
9-11 Amirite, Angels Dawn, Annual Invictus, Cepage, Diol Ker, Empire Steel, Its On The Line, Sail Away
9-10 Macs Charm
9-9 Battleoverdoyen, Celebre D’Allen, Desertmore House, Dunboyne, Iron Bridge, Mister Coffey, Revels Hill, RiaanThat’s every horse rated 140 or higher. There were a few entrants rated below that, including Good Boy Bobby, but I just can’t see them making the cut, now that the field size has been reduced to 34.
Galvin wouldn’t mind the 10-12, but I’m sure there will be a few more running of a reasonable weight, like Minella Indo or Corach Rambler who wouldn’t be badly treated of 11-00 as last year’s winner.
I know this is just Chris Cook’s opinion on weights but Nassalam and Vanillier will have a good chance if given those weights.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Can’t see there being as much as 5 lbs between Hewick and Noble Yeats.
Value Is EverythingIf the Racing Post ORs are correct, Hewick would be rated 169 and Noble Yeats 166. If the handicapper does his own Aintree GN rating he would have “punish” Noble Yeats with 1-2 extra lbs. for being last year’s winner.
“he would have “punish” Noble Yeats with 1-2 extra lbs. for being last year’s winner.”
Which tbf would be a bit harsh as Noble Yeats didn’t actually win it last year.
Sorry, ERL, couldn’t resist, but your “Aintree specialist” extra weight impost point is still well made.
Tbh, anyone can look at the current OR, make a few GN Course form tweaks and come up with what Chris Cook has done, or a close facsimile.
Pity the Brits, running in all those staying handicap chases and revealing their hand before the weights come out.
You won’t catch the Irish doing that, they are altogether better at hiding lights under bushels – this year’s GN winner probably last appeared in a 6f handicap on Laytown Beach, and that was only because they couldn’t find a 5f one.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Not many UK entrants, and one of them was 7th in a Class 3 at Sandown today off 132, so you can rule PLACENET out of getting in. If kept in the race on Tuesday this recent French racer will surely be at the very bottom of the weights now.
(Edit: Is not qualified yet as has not finished in first four in a race of 2m 7f or longer, which you have to presume was today’s plan.)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.