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I’m glad that you enjoyed composing your magnum opus. A lot of people forget that doing their own research and putting it all together is meant to be fun, not a chore.
Great stuff, mate. 👍
Really enjoyed reading that Ginge thanks very much for the effort.
Regards Limerick Lace and the record of mares in the race, and indeed Malina Girl if she gets in, don’t know how many have tried to be honest but Magic Of Light springs to mind as a recent one who went very close.
Edit:
I thought I’d check the last 10 years for female of the species and indeed very low representation of just 9 runners. Magic Of Light the only one to go close in 2019 2nd at 66/1. To be fair not many of them were fancied either, Snow Leopardess the shortest price in 2022 at 10/1, Magic Of Light on her 2nd try in 2020 was 14/1, Baie Des Isles back in 2018 was 16/1 but everyone else was 33/1+.Impressive and informative post Ginger, thanks.
With regards to the performance of mares in the race, one of my all time favourites Dubacilla ran a blinder in 1995 to finish 4th!
Thoroughly enjoyable read, Ginger. Even if it did leave me with a dim view of the majority of my fancies!
Gordon Elliott has stated that he will be declaring Galvin, so we can’t rule out none runners on the day if the owner has their say. Trainer is still clearly keen to take his chance with who he perceives to be his best chance.
We could be closer to 30 runners on the day if connections declare in the hopes that the ground dries out only to find the ground is no better, especially after two races over the fences.
Don’t think this is a great renewal, but even with fewer runners it’s still a big puzzle.
I had backed Late Night Pass, but that bet was more out of frustration in him not going to the Festival than anything else, and I duly cashed it out.
Had it been good ground and he hadn’t had a hard race in the Gold Cup, I would have been with Corach Rambler again, but it isn’t and he did. He’s drifted a bit, but he is still priced as if everything is in his favour, and clearly it isn’t.
It really is hard to find anything that is progressive, will like the ground, and stay the distance.
I may end up throwing a couple of quid at Foxy Jacks. He isn’t progressive as such, but the cross country route seems, at least to a degree, to have rejuvenated him. At times he has threatened to do quite a lot more than he has actually achieved. Too often one or two fences have got in his way. In his younger days he would have wanted much better ground, but these days he is perhaps more versatile. He usually races prominently and fingers crossed these fences can ignite some of that talent he has kept hidden. Of course he could just smack one and say no thanks.
As far as Galvin and Gordon Elliott is concerned, Peter:
I think he was keen on Galvin yes because of his handicap mark. But also because he acts well on proper good and good-soft… And it is usually one of those two on Grand National day. Albeit it is rarely called “Good” anymore, some race times indicate it has been.He was also keen on Chemical Energy and the ground seems to have gone against him too.
If asked now – with the forecast as it is – I think he’d go for Delta Work as his main hope.
Value Is EverythingGood write up GT
My bets been too messy and stop start this year. Had already cashed out my 50’s and 66’s on Stattler last month, and reluctantly got rid of the lot today. I was quite happy to leave the bet at 100’s on him, but daft not to get rid, when I can beat it if I want, should he be declared. There’s also the small matter of him not running. I’d laid off my stake on Galvin last week, so no worries there, whether he runs or not. Looks unlikely even if he is declared.
Not so lucky with The Goffer. Bet him last October, and stuck with him. Can’t lay off, can’t cash out. Don’t fancy him at all now, and if he were mine, I’d go Topham or Sandown
Main fancy right now is Meetingofthewaters. Big notebook horse of mine this year, but managed not to bet him early. Probably an accurate reflection of my build up this year. Roi Mage is definitely getting topped up too on the day. I’ll have sentimentals on the day on Coko Beach, and Janidil too, but looks as if it’ll be Meetingofthewaters and Roi Mage as main selections
On the plus side, had almost reached my Antepost limit for this a few weeks back, but managed to get out here and there, though I’d really have loved to get rid of that Goffer bet.
Galvin 50’s (Laid Stake)
Meetingofthewaters
Ontheropes 840’s
Roi Mage 80’s EW5pls NRNB
The Goffer 66’s EW5PlsJust noticed that Foxy Jacks had a go at the Topham a couple of years ago. Should have realised as I backed him. He took a crashing fall at the 9th having made a hash of at least four of the previous eight fences. He may have a better partnership with his current rider, but that’s more than enough to put me off parting with any money. Might stick the William Hill free £1 bet on him, but it’s looking like the first time for many years that I won’t have a proper bet on the National. Shame as my record in recent years has been pretty good.
A very impressive piece of work, Ginger. Thank you for your time and effort
I particularly like how you describe the leg action of some horses IE Nassalam. Not an expert on such matters, I bow to your expertise
I’ve heard this from TV experts so not completely new to me.Made most of my bets now, most likely to do Iam Maximus and Corach Rambler on the day, no longer value but won’t forgive myself if either won and I didn’t back them.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Nice one FF
Back to the oldies, I took 41/1 on the exchange for Delta Work, obviously on the nose.
Conflated has been confirmed for the Melling. Neither The Goffer or Mac Tottie have taken up the Topham.
I’ve had e/w bets on both The Goffer and Mac Tottie for the GN, but v surprised they havent been entered for the Topham.
I, too have missed the boat on Meetingofthewaters from a decent price pov; i almost went in at 16s but thought better of it. Price crashed last few days, so i think i’ll wait for the day now. Prices of top 10 often lengthen come the day itself, even if only by a couple of points.
Total GN bets, so far:
Minella Crooner 80s e/w
Mac Tottie 100s e/w
The Goffer 66s e/w
Minella Indo 20s
Limerick Lace 22s
Panda Boy 14sTo be honest I’m not really very excited about Aintree this year. The going stick readings are like they were on the Becher Chase day when hardly anything over fences actually finished and those that did were strung out all over Merseyside. Its not going to be pretty viewing. Shame but you can’t help mother nature I suppose.
Cashed out Kitty’s Light. Ground gone against it which is a shame. I just can’t see him winning it.
My final picks…
Vanillier 14-1 ew 5 places.
Course form. Well handicapped for a National runner up. Has run well on soft ground and it may help him not get as far behind early as was the case 12 months ago. Every chance of going one better.
Galia Des Liteaux 33-1 ew 6 places nrnb.
Really like this one now coz of ground and the fact she was running against Gerri Colombe in the Spring in grade 1s and runs here in handicap company off a light weight. The run at Warwick over nearly 3 miles 6 was good too. Wouldn’t surprise me if she won.
I Am Maximus 12-1 ew 5 places.
Stays and goes on the ground. May get too far behind early but could see him finishing well. If everything clicks then a winning chance.
Panda Boy 20-1 ew 5 places.
Not been talked about much in previews that I’ve seen but this has been the aim for a while, goes on the ground, and gets in off a light weight so looks a player.
Meetingofthewaters 20-1 ew 5 places.
The Ultima run was decent and the trainer likes his chances on the ground.
Limerick Lace 20-1 ew 6 places nrnb.
Picked by jockey Walsh and trainer has been saying she is a threat to his other horse Vanillier. Goes on the ground and despite the stamina unknown i decided it was too iffy to leave her out of calculations.
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