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Always less confident when the rain is coming.
My ew 5 places picks are still…
I Am Maximus 12-1
Vanillier 14-1
Meetingofthewaters 20-1
Panda Boy 20-1
Kitty’s Light 40-1 4 places.I may add GDL because of the weather, and swap with Kitty, I’ll see.
Am getting a bit concerned about Noble Yeats.
Right out to 30 without many wanting to back him on the pink side of the Betfair market.
Do punters think his best form is on a sounder surface? Has won on heavy.
Or is it that people can see Conflated coming out and Noble being top weight? Not believing a top weight can win?
Or a combination of the above?
I can see they are possibilities, but even so… 30…???
Or is there a problem and he won’t run?Value Is EverythingThe sample size is small but since 1998 only four of the races have been run on soft or heavy. In those four races 36 French bred horses have run, with their best finish a remounted third in 2001 and Anibale Fly’s 4th in 2018. The likelihood is that at least a third of this years field will be French bred so statistically speaking it seems more likely they will trouble the judge in some way this year.
Everything crossed for
Kitty’s Light – 12/1
and a Fairytale win this year for Christian Williams daughter.I won’t be watchng until after the race but I really don’t see him having a problem with the ground and hoping for another Aldaniti moment to lift spirits and all horses and jockeys home safely.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...According to The Mail online:
Ben Pauling saying he thinks the Topham should be the route they take with Shakem Uparry, even if they get into the National. But would need a “conversation” (with the owners) if they get in.Value Is EverythingThis is what the trainer said before Kitty’s run at Cheltenham. “It will be softer than he likes – he likes spring fast ground – but there’s not too much we can do about that.”
Then he says this (12 minutes 5 seconds into the video) about the ground.
Which version is true?
At the mo it’s looking likely that drier weather may appear 2nd half of the week, but if so, will it make much difference to ground conditions?
myweather2 current forecast for racecourse shows more settled weather from Tuesday afternoon…
Mon – 7mm rain
Tue AM – 16mm rain
Tue PM/Wed/Thu – mainly dry
Fri AM – 3mm rain
Fri PM/Sat – mainly dryAll going to depend how the ground changes from Tue afternoon in any way if current forecast is correct.
Tuesday will probably be the day the ground conditions will be affected by most. BBC say 70% chance of heavy rain from around 6AM to 10AM. If that happens to miss the course then the “strong winds” they’re also predicting could dry it.
Persistent light rain also forecast at other times.
At least some rain still predicted every day bar Thursday,Value Is EverythingSaw an interview with ex-TRFer clerk of the course Sulekha Varma.
If I remember rightly she said yesterday the National course was currently Soft, heavy in places… And that although Aintree drains quickly and could dry, it won’t take much for it to revert back to softer either.
Trying to hedge her bets.I took from the body language she was expecting at least Soft.
Value Is EverythingJust to put Mark’s (Gingertipsters) commits into context.
From RP
A drying weekend at Aintree is set to be followed by more wet weather in the days leading up to the start of the Grand National meeting on Thursday.
Seven days before Saturday’s Randox Grand National, clerk of the course Sulekha Varma said the course was expecting a band of low pressure to bring some heavy rain at the beginning of next week.
The prospect of the National taking place in testing conditions was raised at the start of this week and the course has received around another 13mm since Wednesday. The ground at Aintree on Saturday was described as soft, heavy in places on the Grand National course and soft on the hurdle and chase tracks.
Varma said: “We had a bit of rain yesterday and overnight and we’ve had a largely dry day today and are expecting the same tomorrow.
“There’s a band of low pressure coming in somewhere through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday that will bring some heavy rain. The forecasts aren’t quite sure when it will hit us at the moment.
“Looking to the end of next week, it’s unsettled but hopefully not with any significant rain – it might just be showers.”
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Most of my main fancies are at the head of the market, but I’ve had an early bet on an outsider, Mac Tottie 100-1 ew nrnb 5 places
A couple of horses who are guaranteed a run in Saturday’s Grand National are set to miss the race if rain continues to pour according to owner Ronnie Bartlett.
The talented Galvin and Stattler are 33-1 and 40-1 chances but will only run in the Randox-sponsored showpiece if the ground dries out. The going on the Grand National course was described as soft, heavy in places on Sunday.
Bartlett said on Sunday: “Unless the going description starts with good to soft, I’ll definitely not be running them.
“They’re in good shape and, if it was good to soft, I’d say they’d have a good chance, but it’s just typical how the ground is. The ground stopped us at Cheltenham when the Cross Country race was cancelled too.
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