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Point is Mike, Galvin probably would not need to be at his very best to win this.
…And that this season the form he’s shown so far is nowhere near what the horse is in all probability still capable of achieving.
Value Is EverythingRight enough GT- watching the replay the headon shows him just at the last fence as Vanillier (2nd beaten 14l) crosses the finish line.
You would think there should be a rule already in place to stop Fury Road from running.
Value Is EverythingAnyone know if Bronn is likely to run after his two P’s and totally lost his form?
Value Is EverythingIn relation to Fury Road, yes he does appear to be a blocker. I was surprised that he was still a good horse a year ago though, fair effort in the Ryanair. His fall in the GN seems to have precipitated the dismal form but it seems this is just the right race to run him in. Perhaps the O’Leary’s would point to Balko Des Flos as an example of what’s possible after they’ve flogged one
VF it’s a worry I have to , however bar the fav he’s prob the classiest horse in the race , he may not be as good as he was but this isn’t the Gold Cup and this has been the plan for a long long time , he’s Neptune collonges … , I can’t believe either him or Startled won’t go close
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Galvin has been dropped a long way from last year but his mark last year was ludicrous, you could tell as much from the X Country last year when he was beaten by Delta Work off levels and then expected to somehow reverse that form giving Delta Work 7lbs at Aintree. His mark now gives him a similar chance to Delta Work on that form and probably similar to Minella Indo if you looked at the 2022 Gold Cup which is surely the peak of Galvin’s ability? On that subject a reminder we have an actual Gold Cup winner in this lineup running off a mark in the 150’s, Minella Indo is easily the classiest horse in here at his peak but that peak was in 2021. As a reference point off this sort of mark Delta Work was beaten on merit a long way into 3rd by a novice in Noble Yeats in the 2022 Grand National. If there’s another similar sort to Noble Yeats lurking in here then those towards the top of the weights are well up against it. I suppose the interesting bit is Galvin is probably better than Delta Work if he gets better ground than he had in that X Country, whether he will get his ground or not I’m not so sure.
I’ve bet two outsiders at this stage in Conflated and Foxy Jacks. Conflated has ran to the standard that I’d expect in his races this season, and I’ve taken 50/1. Non Runner No Bet was important with him, as he could easily run in The Aintree Bowl on the Thursday. Foxy Jacks is a big price in my view, certainly based on recent evidence and 66/1 ew, also nrnb, was an easier call for me to make.
The other two that were well up there were Bronn and Galvin. Gingertipster, I was very encouraged to see you showing an interest in Bronn, but like you, every time I try to get info on him, I hit a brick wall. I’d like to hear the views of Greenasgrass on him, who I know was a big fan of the horse. Galvin is already well discussed, and I wouldn’t mind reading VTC’s views on him at this stage as well
If I had to make a call nearer the front of the market right now, I would be most interested in Meeting Of The Waters and Kitty’s Light
NO!
You misunderstood Autumnal.
I was just enquiring about Bronn because I am going through the horses one by one and just wondering whether he’ll run. Obviously has some good form, but has looked as though something amiss on his last two starts. I’d steer well away.As far as Foxy Jacks is concerned, I have been through his form. The words “needs to lead” spring to mind. In that he has two ways of jumping. When nothing is around him he usually jumps well, often making ground on his rivals when doing so. In contrast, if two runners just come upsides he’s often put off and makes mistakes. If horses are all around him there are very few worse jumpers than Foxy Jacks. The start will be all important to him, if getting away in front you may have a good value bet on your hands. If in behind, 999/1 would not imo be value. One other thing… His 5 lb apprentice rider Gavin Brouder has been the making of the horse this season… and in that way I hope he rides at Aintree. But conditionals are not allowed to claim in the Grand National so will effectively be carrying a 5 lb penalty if keeping the ride.
Value Is EverythingFoxy Jacks – not sure the ground will suit if it remains soft. However, I did back him when he won at Cheltenham in November.
I’ve had a tickle e/w on Minella Crooner at 80s this morn.
With Letsbeclearaboutit not running, anyone know when NRNB returns will appear in accounts online?
My Conflated conclusion:
Better jumper than his two unseats in his last three starts indicate, although it is a little disconcerting how these have come once tired / hearing the crowd noise.
Will need to recover quicker than last year, reported by the stable to have “ran flat” when pulled up in the Aintree Bowl; after admittedly a harder race in the Gold Cup. Finished a good second in the 2022 Aintree Bowl – after a less testing Cheltenham – falling two out in the Ryanair. He’s best going left-handed so Aintree is the correct way round for him.
Conflated has a fair chance of staying the Grand National trip, but some who’ve finished around him in the past seem both better handicapped and more likely to improve for the increased test of stamina. Acts on both Good and Heavy ground, but the softer it is the less likely he is to stay.Value Is EverythingI feel that Elliot is extra determined to make a point this year after the BHA had the temerity to suggest a limit on trainers runners in handicaps.
He’s been helped by the authorities this year by the reduction of runners and the handicapper over rating many of the Irish horses too.
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